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纸浆数据日报-20251023
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 03:11
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 needle pulp contract, and the futures price may be priced based on Ural needle pulp and high - quality coniferous pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 22, 2025, SP2601 was 5220 with a daily and weekly increase of 0.97%, SP2511 was 4854 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.04%, and SP2605 was 5270 with a daily increase of 0.84% and a weekly increase of 0.57% [6] - **Spot Prices**: On the same day, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 2500 with no daily or weekly change, Russian Needle was 5100 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 2.00%, and broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4250 with no daily or weekly change [6] - **Outer - Market Quotes**: In October 2025, the outer - market quote for Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 2.86% from the previous period; Nisshin Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, up 3.92%; and Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [6] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.54%, and that of broad - leaf pulp was 135.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.79%. The pulp shipment volume to China in August was 162 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [6] - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 207.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The inventory showed a narrow - range destocking trend [6] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper has been relatively stable recently. For example, the production of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard has not shown significant changes [6] Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 22, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 246 with a quantile level of 0.911, and that of Silver Star was 646 with a quantile level of 0.878 [6] - **Import Profit**: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.511, and that of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.556 [6]