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高库存压制造纸估值
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-12 05:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market continues to have a pattern of oversupply. The supply side has stable imports, and the production of domestic broadleaf pulp has decreased to 243,000 tons due to maintenance, while chemimechanical pulp remains flat. Port inventories have reached a high of 2.408 million tons. On the demand side, downstream industries are gradually resuming work after the holiday, and the consumption of offset paper and tissue paper has increased month - on - month, but overall procurement is mainly for rigid demand, with weak restocking efforts and poor cost transmission. The supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated [4]. - The supply - demand of offset paper shows a loose and weak balance. The supply side has seen a significant increase in production, and the demand side has benefited from the re - printing during the back - to - school season, with the shipment volume increasing by 20.1% month - on - month. However, terminal consumption has limited improvement, and downstream buyers mainly place orders for rigid demand without concentrated restocking. The enterprise inventory of 1.485 million tons has slightly increased month - on - month, and traders maintain a strategy of buying and selling as they go [4]. - Pulp valuation shows a differentiated and volatile trend. Broadleaf pulp is supported by a $20/ton increase in the foreign market, with relatively firm valuation; coniferous pulp is suppressed by futures funds and high inventories, with a weak downward valuation. Currently, pulp prices have reflected the foreign market cost and the expectation of loose supply, but the continuous accumulation of port inventories and the slow recovery of downstream demand have formed a suppression. The valuation has a ceiling and a floor. In the short term, the valuation fluctuates around the cost line and lacks a trending direction. It is necessary to wait for the results of the foreign market negotiations in March and the signal of downstream concentrated restocking. If the demand continues to be weaker than expected, the valuation may further decline [4]. - The valuation of offset paper is at a low level, suppressed by high supply, weak demand, and rigid costs. Paper mills are trying to hold prices, but there is a lack of demand support, and price inversions are common. In the short term, the demand during the back - to - school season cannot change the loose pattern, and the valuation will remain in a low - level fluctuation [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is advisable to mainly wait and see for SP2505, and short on rallies for OP2504. For arbitrage, it is advisable to mainly wait and see. For options, sell SP2605 - P - 5200 for SP and sell OP2604 - C - 4250 for OP [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Pulp Market**: The pulp market has an oversupply situation. The supply side has stable imports, domestic broadleaf pulp production decreases due to maintenance, and port inventories are at a high level. The demand side has a slow recovery, and the supply - demand contradiction persists [4]. - **Offset Paper**: The supply - demand of offset paper is in a loose balance. Production has increased, and demand has a slight improvement during the back - to - school season, but terminal consumption is limited, and inventory has a slight increase [4]. - **Pulp Valuation**: Pulp valuation is differentiated. Broadleaf pulp is supported by foreign market price increases, while coniferous pulp is suppressed by high inventories and futures funds. The valuation is in a range - bound state in the short term [4]. - **Offset Paper Valuation**: The valuation of offset paper is at a low level, suppressed by multiple factors, and will remain in a low - level fluctuation in the short term [4]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Double - Offset Paper - **Supply**: The production of double - offset paper has increased this week. The output is 198,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons or 13.1% from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate is 50.6%, an increase of 5.8% from the previous period. The weekly average profit is - 502.3 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin has decreased by 0.05 percentage points [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of double - offset paper production enterprises is 1.485 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. It is expected that the production inventory will continue to increase in the next period [12]. 3.3.2 Coated Paper - **Supply**: The production of coated paper has increased this week. The output is 83,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons or 12.2% from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate is 61.4%, an increase of 7.1% from the previous period. The weekly average profit is - 46.6 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profitability is under great pressure [16]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coated paper production enterprises is 436,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. It is expected that the production inventory will increase in the next period [20]. 3.3.3 Domestic Pulp - **Supply**: The sample output of Chinese broadleaf pulp is 243,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from last week. The sample output of chemimechanical pulp is 238,000 tons, the same as the previous period. The domestic pulp market is in a stable and wait - and - see state, and the production profit of broadleaf pulp is relatively stable [24]. 3.3.4 Wood Pulp - **Supply**: The average market price of domestic chemimechanical pulp is 2,575 yuan/ton, the same as the previous period. As of March 5, 2026, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports is 2.408 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 million tons or 0.3% [27]. 3.3.5 Pulp Demand - **Tissue Paper**: The supply of domestic tissue paper has increased. The output of sample paper enterprises is 287,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.93%. The inventory is 631,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10% [31]. - **White Cardboard**: The supply of white cardboard has remained flat this week. The output is 361,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 76.81%. The production plant inventory is 1.45 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons or 4.32% from the previous period. It is expected that the inventory level will remain at around 1.45 million tons in the next period [34]. 3.3.6 Paper Prices - **Double - Offset Paper and Coated Paper**: The average price of double - offset paper enterprises is stable, with the tax - included average price of 70g double - offset paper at 4,542.9 yuan/ton, the same as the previous period. The average price of coated paper enterprises is also stable, with the tax - included average price of 157g coated paper at 4,875.0 yuan/ton, the same as the previous period [41]. - **Various Pulp Types**: The spot tax - included average price of coniferous pulp is 5,260 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. The spot tax - included average price of broadleaf pulp is 4,600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. The spot tax - included average price of chemimechanical pulp is 3,800 yuan/ton, the same as the previous period. The spot tax - included average price of unbleached pulp is 4,850 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02% [43].
纸浆盘面博弈较为激烈 当前估值整体偏高
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-12-26 08:09
News Summary Core Viewpoint - China's pulp import volume in November 2025 reached 3.246 million tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 24.0% and a year-on-year increase of 15.9% [1]. Import Data - The total cumulative import volume for the year reached 32.925 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [1]. - As of December 25, the inventory at major Chinese pulp ports was 1.906 million tons, which decreased by 87,000 tons from the previous period, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 4.4% [1]. Futures Market Analysis - As of December 25, the top 20 futures companies held a total long position of 194,500 contracts and a total short position of 232,200 contracts, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.84. The net position was -37,700 contracts, an increase of 4,682 contracts compared to the previous day [1]. - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that recent price increases in external needle and broadleaf pulp have led to a focus on essential purchases by paper mills, with limited upward movement in raw paper prices [2]. - Galaxy Futures highlighted that current valuations are influenced by multiple factors, with pulp prices supported by futures funding and external price increases, but the core issue of oversupply remains unchanged. Weak terminal demand raises doubts about the sustainability of inventory reduction, and paper mills are cautious in procurement due to profit pressures, leading to an overall high valuation [3].
纸浆数据日报-20251201
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 05:17
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Pulp is expected to move in a volatile manner recently as there has been a certain amount of cancellation of warehouse receipts and registration of new warehouse receipts [6] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 28, 2025, SP2601 was 5198 yuan/ton (up 0.27% day-on-day, down 0.57% week-on-week), SP2512 was 4704 yuan/ton (up 0.73% day-on-day, down 1.71% week-on-week), and SP2605 was 5248 yuan/ton (up 0.27% day-on-day, down 0.72% week-on-week) [6] - **Spot Prices**: On November 28, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5400 yuan/ton (unchanged day-on-day, down 0.92% week-on-week), Russian Needle was 5170 yuan/ton (unchanged day-on-day, down 0.58% week-on-week), and broadleaf pulp Golden Crown was 4400 yuan/ton (unchanged day-on-day and week-on-week) [6] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In November 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton (down 2.86% month - on - month), Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton (up 3.92% month - on - month), and Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month) [6] - **Import Costs**: In November 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559 yuan/ton (down 2.83% month - on - month), Brazilian Goldfish was 4344 yuan/ton (up 3.87% month - on - month), and Chilean Venus was 4830 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month) [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In October 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons (unchanged month - on - month), and broadleaf pulp was 131.8 tons (down 2.80% month - on - month). The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in late October 2025. The pulp shipment volume to China decreased by 7.49% [6] - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 217.2 tons (down 0.1 tons from the previous period, down 0.05% month - on - month), and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 21.1 tons [6] - **Demand**: In late November 2025, the production of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuated. Recently, wood - pulp paper companies have issued price increase letters, with only white cardboard having a good implementation situation [6] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 28, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 466 with a quantile level of 0.948, and the Silver Star basis was 696 with a quantile level of 0.911 [6] - **Import Profit**: On November 28, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 159, and that of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 56 [6]
纸浆数据日报-20251126
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The supply side shows that Chile's Arauco company's October quotes for coniferous pulp Silver Star decreased by $20/ton, while quotes for broadleaf pulp Star remained flat, and quotes for natural pulp Venus also remained flat. The demand side indicates that recent price - increase letters for pulp - made paper have been issued, with only white cardboard having good implementation results, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the second batch of price - increase letters for offset paper. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory at China's mainstream pulp ports was 2173000 tons, a 3.0% increase from the previous period, showing a continuous two - week inventory accumulation [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 25, 2025, SP2601 was 5212 yuan/ton, down 0.15% day - on - day and 3.62% week - on - week; SP2512 was 4724 yuan/ton, up 0.25% day - on - day and down 3.55% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5272 yuan/ton, down 0.11% day - on - day and 2.55% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 25, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 2.70% week - on - week; the price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5170 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 4.26% week - on - week; the price of broadleaf pulp Golden Needle was 4400 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week [6]. - **Foreign Market Quotes**: The October quote for Chile's Silver Star was $680/ton, down $20/ton; the quote for Star was $540/ton, unchanged; the quote for Venus was $590/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chile's Silver Star was 5559 yuan/ton, down 2.83% month - on - month; the import cost of Chile's Venus was 4830 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 691000 tons (unchanged month - on - month), and the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 1318000 tons, down 2.80% month - on - month [6]. - **Domestic Production**: The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in the period from November 6 to November 20, 2025 [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 2173000 tons, up 63000 tons from the previous period, a 3.0% increase; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 209000 tons [6]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard also fluctuated during the period from November 6 to November 20, 2025 [6]. 3.3 Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 25, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 446, with a quantile level of 0.946; the Silver Star basis was 676, with a quantile level of 0.895 [6]. - **Import Profit**: On November 25, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 159, with a quantile level of 0.378; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 56, with a quantile level of 0.705 [6].
纸浆数据日报-20251125
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 06:19
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly. The current futures price is close to the import cost of deliverable goods, with limited room for further increase. Consider 1 - 3 reverse spreads or 1 - 5 reverse spreads [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Futures Prices (yuan/ton)**: On November 24, 2025, SP2601 was 5220 (-0.15% day - on - day, -4.64% week - on - week), SP2512 was 4712 (0.17% day - on - day, -3.84% week - on - week), and SP2605 was 5278 (-0.15% day - on - day, -3.55% week - on - week) [6] - **Spot Prices (yuan/ton)**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5400 (-0.92% day - on - day, -2.70% week - on - week), Russian Needle was 5170 (-0.58% day - on - day, -4.26% week - on - week), and Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4400 (0.00% day - on - day, 0.00% week - on - week) [6] - **Outer - Disk Quotes (USD/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star was 680 (-2.86% month - on - month), Japanese Neko was 530 (3.92% month - on - month), and Chilean Venus was 590 (0.00% month - on - month) [6] - **Import Costs (yuan/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star was 5559 (-2.83% month - on - month), Brazilian Goldfish was 4344 (3.87% month - on - month), and Chilean Venus was 4830 (0.00% month - on - month) [6] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Import Volume (10,000 tons)**: In October 2025, coniferous pulp was 69.1 (0.00% month - on - month) and broadleaf pulp was 131.8 (-2.80% month - on - month) [6] - **Domestic Production (10,000 tons)**: For broadleaf pulp, the production on November 20, 2025, was 23; for chemimechanical pulp, it was 23.7 [6] - **Inventory (10,000 tons)**: As of November 20, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 217.3 (3.0% week - on - week), and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 20.9 [6] - **Finished - Paper Production (10,000 tons)**: Double - offset paper was 20.70, coated paper was 8.00, tissue paper was 28.52, and white cardboard was 36.20 [6] 3.3 Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 24, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 458 (quantile level 0.948), and the Silver Star basis was 688 (quantile level 0.905) [6] - **Import Profit**: For coniferous pulp Silver Star, it was - 159 (quantile level 0.378); for broadleaf pulp Goldfish, it was 56 (quantile level 0.704) [6] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Chilean Arauco's October offer for coniferous pulp Silver Star was 680 USD/ton, down 20 USD/ton; the offer for broadleaf pulp Star was 540 USD/ton, unchanged [6] - **Demand**: Recently, wood - pulp paper producers have issued price - increase letters. Only the implementation of white cardboard price increases is good, and its production is stable [6] 3.5 Inventory - As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 217.3 tons, an increase of 6.3 tons from the previous period, a 3.0% week - on - week increase. The inventory has been accumulating for two consecutive weeks [6]
纸浆数据日报-20251121
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 06:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly. The current futures price is close to the import cost of the deliverable product, and there is limited room for further price increases. It is recommended to close the 12 - 1 reverse spread and initiate a 1 - 3 or 1 - 5 reverse spread [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 20, 2025, SP2601 was priced at 5298, down 1.82% daily and 4.26% weekly; SP2512 was 4786, down 1.48% daily and 2.13% weekly; SP2605 was 5340, down 1.07% daily and 2.94% weekly [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5500, down 0.90% daily and weekly; Russian Needle was 5350, down 0.93% daily and weekly; Hardwood pulp Golden Crown was 4400, unchanged [5]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was quoted at 680 dollars, down 2.86% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged [5]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In October 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons, unchanged from September; hardwood pulp was 131.8 tons, down 2.80% from September. The pulp shipment volume to China was 187 tons, up 13.50% [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 217.3 tons, up 3.0% from the previous period, showing a continuous two - week inventory accumulation [5][10]. - **Demand**: Among finished paper products, the production of double - offset paper, copperplate paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed minor fluctuations, with only white cardboard having a better price increase implementation and stable production [5][10]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 20, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 564, with a quantile level of 0.965; the Silver Star basis was 714, with a quantile level of 0.919 [5]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 59, with a quantile level of 0.515; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 56, with a quantile level of 0.704 [5].
纸浆数据日报-20251120
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 06:05
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content was provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly. The current futures price is close to the import cost of the deliverable, and there is limited room for further increase. Consider closing the 12 - 1 reverse spread and initiating a 1 - 3 or 1 - 5 reverse spread [5][10] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 19, 2025, SP2601 was 5396, down 0.22% day - on - day and 1.57% week - on - week; SP2512 was 4858, down 0.29% day - on - day and 0.61% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5398, down 0.22% day - on - day and 1.46% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: On November 19, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5550, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian coniferous pulp was 5400, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Golden Fish was 4400, unchanged [5] - **Outer - Market Quotes**: In November 2025, the outer - market quote for Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars, down 2.86% from the previous period; Brazilian Golden Fish was 530 dollars, up 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% from the previous period; Brazilian Golden Fish was 4344, up 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The domestic production of broadleaf pulp on November 13, 2025, was 22.9 tons; chemimechanical pulp was 23.6 tons [5] - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211 tons, up 6.1% from the previous period; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.2 tons [5] - **Demand**: As of November 13, 2025, the production of offset paper was 20.90 tons; coated paper was 8.30 tons; tissue paper was 28.48 tons; white cardboard was 36.20 tons [5] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 19, 2025, the Russian coniferous pulp basis was 542, with a quantile level of 0.961; the Silver Star basis was 692, with a quantile level of 0.908 [5] - **Import Profit**: On November 19, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 9, with a quantile level of 0.594; broadleaf pulp Golden Fish was 56, with a quantile level of 0.704 [5]
纸浆数据日报-20251118
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 05:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for needle pulp in 2026. The futures price may be priced based on Russian needle pulp and high - quality needle pulp. The current futures price is close to the import cost of the delivery product, so there is limited room for further price increases. It is recommended to close the 12 - 1 reverse spread and initiate a 1 - 3 or 1 - 5 reverse spread [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 17, 2025, SP2601 was 5474 with a daily decrease of 0.11% and a weekly increase of 0.11%; SP2512 was 4898 with a daily decrease of 0.04% and a weekly increase of 0.53%; SP2605 was 5472 with a daily increase of 0.18% and a weekly increase of 0.37% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On the same day, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5550 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.91%; Russian needle pulp was 5400 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 5.88%; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4400 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 3.53% [6]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In November 2025, the quote for Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 2.86%; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.54%; broad - leaf pulp was 135.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.79%. The pulp shipment volume to China was 187 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.50% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211 tons, a 6.1% increase from the previous period. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.2 tons [6]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper showed different trends. For example, the production of double - offset paper, copper - plate paper, and other products fluctuated slightly in different periods [6]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 17, 2025, the Russian needle pulp basis was 502 with a quantile level of 0.952; the Silver Star basis was 652 with a quantile level of 0.881 [6]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 9 with a quantile level of 0.594; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 56 with a quantile level of 0.704 [6].
纸浆数据日报-20251117
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 05:17
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 26-year Russian needle pulp. The futures price may be priced based on Russian needle pulp and high-quality softwood pulp. The current futures price is close to the import cost of the delivery product, and the room for further increase is limited. It is recommended to close the 12 - 1 reverse spread position [10] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 16, 2025, SP2601 was 5480, down 0.98% day - on - day and up 1.59% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4900, down 0.12% day - on - day and up 0.41% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5462, down 0.73% day - on - day and up 1.19% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: On November 16, 2025, the spot price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5550, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.91% week - on - week; that of Russian Needle was 5400, unchanged day - on - day and up 5.88% week - on - week; that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4400, unchanged day - on - day and up 3.53% week - on - week [5] - **Foreign Quotes**: The quotes of Chilean Silver Star and Brazilian Goldfish were 680 and 530 dollars respectively, down 2.86% and up 3.92% month - on - month; that of Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [5] - **Import Costs**: The import costs of Chilean Silver Star and Brazilian Goldfish were 5559 and 4344 respectively, down 2.83% and up 3.87% month - on - month; that of Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month [5] 2. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of knitting pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% month - on - month; that of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in different periods. The pulp shipment volume in China in September 2025 was 187 tons, up 13.50% [5] - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211 tons, up 6.1% from the previous period; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.2 tons [5] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard also fluctuated in different periods [5] 3. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 16, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 500 with a quantile level of 0.951; that of Silver Star was 650 with a quantile level of 0.88 [5] - **Import Profit**: On November 16, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 9 with a quantile level of 0.594; that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 56 with a quantile level of 0.704 [5]
纸浆数据日报-20251111
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 03:34
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 contract, and the futures price may be priced based on Russian pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [5][10] - The overall demand for pulp remains weak, although white cardboard has shown a significant increase in both volume and price, and there have been frequent price increase letters for cultural paper, but whether the price increases can be implemented remains to be observed [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 10, 2025, SP2601 was 5468 with a daily increase of 1.37% and a weekly increase of 3.05%; SP2511 was 4870 with a daily decrease of 0.04% and a weekly increase of 0.66%; SP2605 was 5452 with a daily increase of 1.00% and a weekly increase of 1.98% [5] - **Spot Prices**: On November 10, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500 with no daily or weekly change; Russian softwood pulp was 5100 with no change; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250 with no change [5] - **Foreign Quotes**: In November 2025, the quote for Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 2.86% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, up 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.54%; hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.79%. The domestic production of hardwood pulp in November 6, 2025 was 25 tons, and chemimechanical pulp was 23.5 tons [5] - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 200.8 tons, a decrease of 5.3 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6%. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.4 tons [5] - **Demand**: In terms of finished paper production, on November 6, 2025, double - offset paper was 20.80 tons, coated paper was 8.50 tons, tissue paper was 28.36 tons, and white cardboard was 35.70 tons [5] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 10, 2025, the basis of Russian pulp was 230 with a quantile level of 0.906; the basis of Silver Star was 630 with a quantile level of 0.873 [5] - **Import Profit**: On November 10, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.513; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.558 [5]