投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | C == 体张告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸期货力求准确可靠，但不对上达信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议，也未针对个别投资者扬胜的投资目标。 免 责 影影《剧需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，很比投资，责任自负。本报告仅向待定客户推进，未经画贸期货授权许可，任何引用，转载以及向 UH 第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权，我司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险，入市需谨慎。 ll C 国贸期货 LET 500 FR 2 1 2 1 国贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 司不要】 影教据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | | 2025年9月30日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年9月30日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5142 | -0 ...

策略: 纸浆基本面仍无修复迹象, 纸浆港口库存和仓单数量无明显去化, 纸浆期货偏弱运行;考虑11-1反套。 == 体张告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸期货力求准确可靠，但不对上达信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议，也未针对个别投资者扬胜的投资目标。 免 责 影影《剧需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，很比投资，责任自负。本报告仅向待定客户推进，未经画贸期货授权许可，任何引用，转载以及向 UH 第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权，我司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险，入市需谨慎。 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | | 2025年9月29日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年9月29日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SP2601 | 5174 | -1.86% | -2. 16% | | 针叶浆银星 | 5600 | -0. ...

| | | 2025年9月26日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年9月26日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SP2601 | 5272 | -0. 79% | -0. 83% | | 针叶浆银星 | 5650 | 0. 00% | 0.00% | | 期货价格 | SP2511 | 5016 | -0. 87% | -0. 04% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5200 | 0. 00% | 0.00% | | | SP2505 | 5296 | -0. 60% | -0. 71% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4220 | 0.00% | 0.00% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 外盘报价 | 智利银星 | 700 | 720 | -2. 78% | | 智利银星 | 5721 | 5884 | -2.75% | | (美元) | 日起等更 | 530 | 510 | 3.92% | 进口成本 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The pulp fundamentals still show no signs of recovery, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventories and the number of warehouse receipts. The pulp futures are expected to fluctuate, and an 11 - 1 reverse spread is recommended [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 25, 2025, SP2601 was 5314 with a daily increase of 0.34% and a weekly decrease of 0.15%; SP2511 was 5060 with a daily increase of 0.32% and a weekly increase of 0.92%; SP2505 was 5328 with a daily increase of 0.30% and a weekly decrease of 0.34% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650, Russian Needle was 5200; Broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4220, all with no daily or weekly changes [5]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.78% to 700 dollars; Japanese quotes increased by 3.92% to 530 dollars; Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 590 dollars [5]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.75% to 5721; Brazilian Goldfish increased by 3.87% to 4344; Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 4830 [5]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 61.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95%; broad - leaf pulp imports were 125.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.88%. The pulp shipment volume to China in August was 162 tons, a 4.50% increase [5]. - **Production**: Domestic broad - leaf pulp production on September 25, 2025, was 23.8 tons; chemimechanical pulp production was 22.3 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 203.3 tons, a decrease of 7.9 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decrease. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 23.5 tons [5]. - **Demand**: On September 25, 2025, double - offset paper production was 21.00 tons; coated paper production was 8.50 tons; tissue paper production was 28.07 tons; white cardboard production was 35.90 tons [5]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 25, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 140 with a quantile level of 0.867; the Silver Star basis was 590 with a quantile level of 0.86 [5]. - **Import Profit**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star had an import profit of - 71 with a quantile level of 0.497; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish had an import profit of - 124 with a quantile level of 0.523 [5]. Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: Arauco's September quotes showed a decrease in coniferous pulp outer - disk quotes and an increase in broad - leaf pulp quotes [5]. - **Demand Side**: Current paper product demand is stable, prices have not rebounded significantly, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on pulp demand has not been reflected [5]. - **Inventory Side**: As of September 25, 2025, the pulp inventory showed a de - stocking trend [5].

| | | 2025年9月24日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年9月24日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SP2601 | 5296 | 0. 46% | -0. 97% | | 针叶浆银星 | 5650 | 0. 00% | 0.00% | | 期货价格 | SP2511 | 5044 | 0.72% | 0. 04% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5200 | 0. 00% | -0. 95% | | | SP2505 | 5312 | 0. 45% | -1.04% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4220 | 0. 00% | 0.00% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 外盘报价 | 智利银星 | 700 | 720 | -2. 78% | | 智利银星 | 5721 | 5884 | -2.75% | | (美元) | 日起ぞ更 | 530 | 510 | 3.92% | 进口成本 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamentals of pulp have no signs of recovery, the port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts of pulp have no obvious reduction, and the pulp futures fluctuate [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On September 19, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2505 were 5316, 5018, and 5334 respectively, with day-on-day changes of -0.11%, 0.08%, and -0.22%, and week-on-week changes of 0.72%, 0.56%, and 0.87% [5]. - The spot prices of coniferous pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and broadleaf pulp Goldfish were 5650, 5200, and 4220 respectively, with day-on-day changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, and 0.00%, and week-on-week changes of 0.00%, 0.58%, and 0.96% [5]. Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Japanese - like, and Chilean Venus were 700, 530, and 590 dollars respectively, with month - on - month changes of -2.78%, 3.92%, and 0.00% [5]. - The import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5721, 4344, and 4830 respectively, with month - on - month changes of -2.75%, 3.87%, and 0.00% [5]. Supply - side Data - In July 2025, the import volumes of coniferous pulp and broadleaf pulp were 64.6 and 135.1 tons respectively, with month - on - month changes of -4.72% and -5.85% [5]. - The pulp shipment volume to China was 158 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 23.00% [5]. - The domestic production volumes of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp on September 18, 2025 were 23.1 and 22.2 tons respectively [5]. Inventory - side Data - As of September 18, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211.2 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.4% [5]. - The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 24.4 tons [5]. Demand - side Data - The production volumes of offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard on September 18, 2025 were 20.90, 8.30, 28.04, and 35.60 tons respectively [5]. Valuation Data - On September 19, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 182 with a quantile level of 0.896, and the Silver Star basis was 632 with a quantile level of 0.878 [5]. - The import profits of coniferous pulp Silver Star and broadleaf pulp Goldfish were -71 and -124 respectively, with quantile levels of 0.496 and 0.522 [5]. Market Situation - On the supply side, Arauco's September coniferous pulp Silver Star quote was 700 dollars/ton, broadleaf pulp Star quote increased by 20 dollars/ton to 540 dollars/ton, and natural pulp Venus quote remained at 590 dollars/ton. Coniferous pulp outer - disk quotes decreased while broadleaf pulp quotes increased [5]. - On the demand side, the current paper product demand remained basically stable. Some offset paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, and the implementation remained to be observed [5]. - On the inventory side, as of September 18, 2025, the inventory showed a narrow - range accumulation trend [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts, and pulp futures are oscillating [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - On September 17, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2505 were 5348, 5042, and 5368 respectively, with daily changes of -0.04%, -0.51%, and 0.19%, and weekly changes of 1.44%, 0.92%, and 1.78% [5] - The spot prices of coniferous pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and broadleaf pulp Goldfish were 5650, 5250, and 4220 respectively, with daily changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, and 0.96%, and weekly changes of 0.00%, 1.55%, and 0.96% [5] - The outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 700, 530, and 590 US dollars respectively, with monthly changes of -2.78%, 3.92%, and 0.00% [5] - The import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5721, 4344, and 4830 respectively, with monthly changes of -2.75%, 3.87%, and 0.00% [5] Fundamental Data Supply - In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.72%, and the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 135.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.85% [5] - The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp from July 31, 2025, to September 11, 2025, fluctuated within a certain range [5] Inventory - As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 206.2 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [5] - The inventory of the futures delivery warehouse from July 31, 2025, to September 11, 2025, also fluctuated [5] Demand - The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard from July 31, 2025, to September 11, 2025, remained relatively stable [5] Valuation Data - On September 17, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 208 with a quantile level of 0.901, and the Silver Star basis was 608 with a quantile level of 0.871 [5] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was -71 with a quantile level of 0.496, and that of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was -124 with a quantile level of 0.522 [5] Market Situation - On the supply side, Arauco's September quotes showed a decrease in coniferous pulp outer - disk quotes and an increase in broadleaf pulp quotes [5] - On the demand side, the current demand for paper products is basically stable, and some paper mills have issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be seen [5] - On the inventory side, the inventory change is not significant [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, with no obvious reduction in pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts. However, benefiting from the warming of commodity sentiment, pulp futures are expected to run strongly in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 16, 2025, SP2601 was 5324 with a daily increase of 0.87% and a weekly increase of 0.64%; SP2511 was 5056 with a daily increase of 1.32% and a weekly increase of 0.60%; SP2509 was 4970 with a daily increase of 0.69% and a weekly decrease of 0.04% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 16, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.88%; Russian Needle was 5200 with a daily and weekly increase of 0.58%; Eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was 4180 with no daily and weekly change [5]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, a decrease of 2.70% compared to the previous period; Japanese Quote increased by 3.92% to 530 dollars; Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 590 dollars [5]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, an increase of 3.87% compared to the previous period; Chilean Silver Star was 5884, a decrease of 2.68%; Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 4830 [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a decrease of 4.72% compared to June; the import volume of eucalyptus pulp was 135.1 tons, a decrease of 5.85%. The pulp shipment volume to China was 158 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23% [5]. - **Production**: The domestic production of eucalyptus pulp and chemimechanical pulp remained relatively stable from July 31 to September 11, 2025 [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 206.2 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons compared to the previous period, a 0.2% decrease. The inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 24.5 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard remained relatively stable. Some offset paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be observed [5]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 16, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 144 with a quantile level of 0.871; the basis of Silver Star was 594 with a quantile level of 0.865 [5]. - **Import Profit**: On September 16, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 234 with a quantile level of 0.27; the import profit of eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was - 164 with a quantile level of 0.479 [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, and there is no significant reduction in pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts. In the short term, it will still operate weakly [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 15, 2025, SP2601 was 5324 with a daily increase of 0.87% and a weekly increase of 0.64%; SP2511 was 5056 with a daily increase of 1.32% and a weekly increase of 0.60%; SP2509 was 4970 with a daily increase of 0.69% and a weekly decrease of 0.04% [5] - **Spot Prices**: On September 15, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.88%; Russian Needle was 5200 with a daily and weekly increase of 0.58%; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4180 with no daily or weekly change [5] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In September 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, a monthly decrease of 2.70%; Japanese Utsumi was 530 dollars, a monthly increase of 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars with no monthly change [5] - **Import Costs**: In September 2025, the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, a monthly increase of 3.87%; Chilean Silver Star was 5884, a monthly decrease of 2.68%; Chilean Venus was 4830 with no monthly change [5] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a monthly decrease of 4.72%; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 135.1 tons, a monthly decrease of 5.85%. The pulp shipment volume to China was 158 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.00% [5] - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.2 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous period, a monthly decrease of 0.2%. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 24.5 tons [5] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper was relatively stable. Some double - offset paper and white cardboard paper mills issued price increase letters, but the implementation situation remains to be observed [5] Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 15, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 144 with a quantile level of 0.871; the Silver Star basis was 594 with a quantile level of 0.865 [5] - **Import Profit**: On September 15, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 234 with a quantile level of 0.27; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 164 with a quantile level of 0.479 [5] Market Situation and Strategy - **Supply - side**: Brazilian Suzano announced a price increase of 20 dollars/ton in the Asian market in August 2025. Chilean Arauco notified the August quotes, with the coniferous pulp Silver Star at 720 dollars/ton, broadleaf pulp Star at 520 dollars/ton (supply reduced by 50%), and natural pulp Venus at 590 dollars/ton [5] - **Demand - side**: The current demand for paper products remains basically stable [5] - **Inventory - side**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory change was not significant, and the commodity market was running strongly in the short term due to the anti - involution sentiment [5] - **Strategy**: The pulp fundamentals have no signs of repair, and it will still operate weakly in the short term [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventories and the number of warehouse receipts. It is expected to remain weak in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 12, 2025, SP2601 was 5300 with a daily increase of 0.64% and a weekly decrease of 0.34%; SP2511 was 5016 with a daily increase of 0.40% and a weekly decrease of 0.71%; SP2509 was 4960 with a daily increase of 0.45% and a weekly decrease of 0.68% [5] - **Spot Prices**: On September 12, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.22%; Russian Needle was 5170 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.58%; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4180 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.48% [5] - **Foreign Quotes**: The quote for Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, a monthly decrease of 2.70%; Japanese NBSK was 530 dollars, a monthly increase of 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars with no monthly change [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, a monthly decrease of 2.68%; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, a monthly increase of 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830 with no monthly change [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply - Import Volume**: In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a monthly decrease of 4.72%; broadleaf pulp was 135.1 tons, a monthly decrease of 5.85% [5] - **Supply - Domestic Production**: The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated slightly from July 31 to September 11, 2025 [5] - **Supply - Shipment Volume**: The pulp shipment volume to China in July 2025 was 158 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.00% [5] - **Inventory - Port Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of China's major pulp ports was 206.2 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous period, a monthly decrease of 0.2% [5] - **Inventory - Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 24.5 tons, showing a slight change compared to previous periods [5] - **Demand - Finished Paper Production**: From July 31 to September 11, 2025, the production of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuated slightly [5] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 12, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 154 with a quantile level of 0.877; the Silver Star basis was 634 with a quantile level of 0.879 [5] - **Import Profit**: On September 12, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 234 with a quantile level of 0.27; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 164 with a quantile level of 0.478 [5] Market Situation - **Supply Side**: Brazil's Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025. Chile's Arauco notified the August quotes, with the coniferous pulp Silver Star at 720 dollars/ton, broadleaf pulp Star at 520 dollars/ton (supply reduced by 50%), and natural pulp Venus at 590 dollars/ton [5] - **Demand Side**: The current demand for paper products remains basically stable. Some double - offset paper and white cardboard manufacturers have issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be seen [5] - **Inventory Side**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of China's major pulp ports showed a narrow - range destocking trend [5] Strategy - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, and the pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts have not significantly decreased. It is expected to remain weak in the short term [5]