| | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | ITC 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | SAL. | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 | 杨璐琳 | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | 2025/8/26 | | | | | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | | 2025年8月25日 | 日环比 | 周珂比 | | | 2025年8月25日 | HMM | 10 WIND | | | SP2601 | 5402 | 0. 71% | -1. 35% | | 针叶浆银星 | 5800 | 0. 00% | -0. 85% | | 期货价格 | SP2511 | 5136 | 0. 55% | -2. 21% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5180 | 0. 58% | -2. 26% | | | SP2509 | 5088 | 0. 59% | -2. 15 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - The pulp futures are expected to run strongly [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 12, 2025, SP2601 was 5488 with a daily increase of 0.29% and a weekly increase of 1.55%; SP2605 was 5462 with a daily decrease of 0.18% and a weekly decrease of 1.06%; SP2509 was 5216 with a daily increase of 0.27% and a weekly increase of 1.09% [1] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850 with no daily change and no weekly change; Russian Needle was 5250 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 1.35%; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4150 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 1.72% [1] - **Outer - disk Quotes (USD)**: Chilean Silver Star was 720, down 2.70% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 510, up 4.08% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620, with no month - on - month change [1] - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4182, up 4.03% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, with no month - on - month change [1] Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - **Imports in June 2025**: Coniferous pulp imports were 67.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.09% compared to May; broadleaf pulp imports were 143.5 tons [1] - **Domestic Production**: Broadleaf pulp production was around 20.6 tons; chemimechanical pulp production was around 20.7 tons [1] - **Supply - side News**: Brazilian Suzano announced a $20/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025 and a 3.5% decrease in commodity pulp production in the next 12 months; Asia - Pacific Senbo announced a 150 yuan/ton increase in broadleaf pulp order - taking prices for long - term contract customers only, and the outer - disk pulp volume decreased while prices increased [1] Demand - **Finished Paper Production**: This week, the production of major finished papers increased slightly, but the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [2] - **Specific Finished Paper Production (July - August 2025)**: Double - offset paper production was around 21.00 tons; coated paper was around 7.70 tons; tissue paper was around 27.86 tons; white cardboard was around 30.70 tons [1] Inventory - As of August 7, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 204.8 tons, a decrease of 5.7 tons from the previous period, a 2.7% month - on - month decrease, showing a de - stocking trend [2] Pulp Valuation Data - On August 12, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 34 with a quantile level of 0.771; the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 34 with a quantile level of 0.546 [1]

| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | | ITG 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SAL | | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 | | | 2025/8/12 | | | 农产品研究中心 | | | 杨璐琳 | 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | | | 2025年8月11日 | | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年8月11日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | SP2601 | 5472 | 0.66% | 1. 41% | 针叶浆银星 | | 5850 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | 期货价格 现货价 SP2605 | 5452 | -0. 70% | -1. 17% | | 针叶浆俄针 | 5250 | 1. 35% | 1. 35% | | SP2509 | 5202 | 0. 77% | 0. 66% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 ...

Group 1: Paper Pulp Price Data - Futures prices: SP2601 was 5404 with a daily increase of 0.15% and a weekly decrease of 2.53%; SP2605 was 5388 with a daily decrease of 0.37% and a weekly decrease of 0.07%; SP2509 was 5160 with a daily decrease of 0.15% and a weekly decrease of 3.98% [1] - Spot prices: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.18%; Russian Needle was 5180 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 4.43%; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4080 with a daily decrease of 0.97% and a weekly decrease of 1.69% [1] - Outer - disk quotes: Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars with a monthly decrease of 2.70%; Chilean Star was 500 dollars with a monthly decrease of 10.71%; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars with no monthly change [1] - Import costs: Chilean Silver Star was 5884 with a monthly decrease of 2.68%; Chilean Star was 4101 with a monthly decrease of 10.60%; Chilean Venus was 5073 with no monthly change [1] Group 2: Paper Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - Import volume: In June 2025, coniferous pulp import volume was 67.8 tons, a 6.09% decrease from May; Hardwood pulp import volume data was not shown in a comparable way here [1] - Shipment volume: The shipment volume of paper pulp to China in May 2025 was 140 tons, a 3.3% increase from April [1] - Company offer: Chilean Arauco announced July wood pulp outer - disk quotes. Coniferous pulp Silver Star had no new offer; Venus was priced at 590 dollars per ton, and Uruguayan Hardwood pulp New Star was 500 dollars per ton [1] Demand - Main finished paper production: This week, the production of main finished papers decreased slightly, and paper prices were low, providing weak support for paper pulp [2] Inventory - As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of Chinese paper pulp main ports was 210.5 tons, a 3.8 - ton decrease from the previous period, a 1.8% decrease, showing a de - stocking trend [2] Group 3: Paper Pulp Valuation Data - Basis: On August 5, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 20 with a quantile level of 0.739; Silver Star basis was 690 with a quantile level of 0.914 [1] - Import profit: Coniferous pulp Silver Star's import profit was - 34 with a quantile level of 0.545; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 21 with a quantile level of 0.613 [1] Group 4: Strategy - This week, paper pulp futures returned to fundamental pricing and are expected to fluctuate widely between 5100 - 5400 [2]

| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | | | ITG 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SAL. | | | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 | | | | | | 农产品研究中心 >> | | | | 杨璐琳 | 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | 2025/8/5 | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | | | | SP2601 | | 2025年8月4日 5396 | 日环比 -0. 37% | 周环比 -1.68% | | 针叶浆银星 | 2025年8月4日 | OFFIT HMM | 10 min | | | | | | | | | 5850 | 0. 00% | -1. 18% | | 期货价格 SP2605 | | 5368 | -0. 07% | 0. 71% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5180 | -2. 26% | -4. 95% | | SP250 ...

截止2025年7月31日，中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量：210.5万吨，较上期去库3.8万吨，环比下降 1.8%，库存量在本周期呈现去库的走势。 由于现货基本面矛盾未解，期货市场近期受宏观情绪主导，预计纸浆期货合约SP2509，今日白天至晚 间，将在5210-5360区间内震荡调整为主；操作上，在盘中反弹受阻回落时或者回调遇支撑反弹时，择 机以区间思路短线操作为主，需注意风控保护。 消息面 现货端山东银星现货报价5920元/吨，江浙沪俄针报价5420元/吨；阔叶浆金鱼报价4150元/吨。 据海关总署统计，6月纸浆进口总量303.1万吨，环比+0.5%，同比+16.3%，漂阔浆进口量高于同期，针 叶浆处于同期中位。 机构观点 正信期货： 瑞达期货（002961）： 纸浆港口库存处于同期高水平，下游整体需求表现力度欠佳，海外纸浆价格高位回落，后续注意纸浆进 口情况。SP2509合约震荡，下方短线关注5200支撑，上方5500附近压力，注意风险控制。 ...

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View - The pulp futures are expected to rebound slightly in the short - term under the background of macro - positive factors [2]. 3) Summary by Directory Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 10, 2025, SP2601 was 5386 with a daily increase of 1.28% and a weekly increase of 1.51%; SP2507 was 5150 with a daily increase of 1.58% and a weekly increase of 1.66%; SP2509 was 5196 with a daily increase of 1.76% and a weekly increase of 2.00% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 10, 2025, the spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920 with a daily and weekly increase of 0.34%; Russian Needle was 5200 with a daily and weekly increase of 1.56%; Eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was 4020 with no change [1]. - **Outer - plate Quotes and Import Costs**: The outer - plate quotes of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.70% month - on - month, Chilean Star decreased by 10.71% month - on - month, and Chilean Venus remained unchanged. The import costs of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.68% month - on - month, Chilean Star decreased by 10.60% month - on - month, and Chilean Venus remained unchanged [1]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75%; the import volume of eucalyptus pulp was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.84%. The W20 shipment volume to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month. The supply side showed an increase in quantity and a decrease in price [1]. - **Demand**: The output of major finished paper increased slightly this week, but the price of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp [2]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, 2025, the inventory of China's major pulp ports was 217.9 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%, showing a de - stocking trend [2]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 10, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 4 with a quantile level of 0.71, and the Silver Star basis was 724 with a quantile level of 0.925 [1]. - **Import Profit**: On July 10, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 36 with a quantile level of 0.686, and that of eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was - 81 with a quantile level of 0.564 [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, pulp is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - On July 9, 2025, the futures price of SP2601 was 5318, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.45% and a weekly - on - weekly increase of 0.64%. The spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5900, with no daily or weekly change [1]. - The futures price of SP2507 was 5070, with a daily increase of 0.76% and a weekly increase of 0.44%. The spot price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5120, with no change [1]. - The outer - disk quotation of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70%, and its import cost was 5884, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68% [1]. Fundamental Data - In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75%, and the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.84% [1]. - The pulp shipment volume to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month [1]. Supply - Chilean Arauco announced a new round of July wood pulp outer - disk quotations. The face value of coniferous pulp Silver Star (no new offer after completed transactions), the face value of natural pulp Venus was 590 dollars per ton, and the net price of Uruguayan broad - leaf pulp New Star was 500 dollars per ton (no quantity for Chilean Star). The supply side showed an increase in quantity and a decrease in price [1]. Demand - This week, the output of major finished paper increased slightly, but the price of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp [2]. Inventory - As of July 3, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 221.3 tons, an increase of 5.0 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%, showing a trend of inventory accumulation [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, pulp prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - On July 4, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2507, and SP2509 decreased by 0.49%, 0.51%, and 0.51% respectively compared to the previous day, and SP2507 and SP2509 decreased by 0.98% and 0.55% respectively compared to the previous week. The spot prices of coniferous pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and broad - leaf pulp Goldfish were 5900, 5120, and 4020 respectively, with week - on - week changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, and - 0.74% [1] - The foreign - market quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Chilean Star, and Chilean Venus were 720, 560, and 620 dollars respectively, with monthly changes of - 2.70%, 0.00%, and 0.00%. The import costs were 5884, 4587, and 5073 yuan respectively, with monthly changes of - 2.68%, 0.00%, and 0.00% [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75%, and the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 129.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.84%. The pulp shipment volume to China in April 2025 was 1353 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.80% [1] - On July 3, 2025, the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp was 20.5 million tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 20.1 million tons. The pulp port inventory was 221.3 million tons, and the delivery - warehouse inventory was 24.60 million tons. The production of main finished paper products such as double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed different trends [1] Pulp Valuation Data - On July 4, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 52, with a quantile level of 0.959; the basis of Silver Star was 832. The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 16, with a quantile level of 0.649; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 567, with a quantile level of 0.187 [1] Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Supply: On June 20, Arauco lowered the order price of radiata pine (coniferous pulp) in June by 20 dollars/ton to 720 dollars/ton. The shipment volume to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month. The supply increased while the price decreased [1] - Demand: The production of main finished paper products increased slightly this week, but the prices of finished paper products remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] - Inventory: As of July 3, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 221.3 million tons, an increase of 5.0 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%, showing a trend of inventory accumulation [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, pulp prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On July 3, 2025, SP2601 was priced at 5306, up 0.42% day - on - day and 0.80% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5048, up 0.76% day - on - day and down 0.24% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5094, up 0.43% day - on - day and 0.55% week - on - week [1] - Spot prices: coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5900, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.84% week - on - week; coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5120, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4020, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.74% week - on - week [1] Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - Outer - disk quotes (in dollars): Chilean Silver Star was 720, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 560, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 620, unchanged [1] - Import costs: Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4587, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1] Supply - In May 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 72.2 tons, down 4.75% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp imports were 129.3 tons, up 7.84% month - on - month [1] - The pulp shipment volume to China was 1353, down 30.80% month - on - month [1] - On June 20, Arauco cut the order price of radiata pine (coniferous pulp) for June by $20/ton to $720/ton, and the shipment volume to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month [1] Inventory - As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 216.3 tons, a decrease of 4.5 tons from the previous period, down 2.0% [1] - The delivery warehouse inventory was 24.60 tons [1] Demand - This week, the production of major finished papers decreased, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] Valuation - On July 3, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 26, at the 0.756 quantile; the Silver Star basis was 806, at the 0.951 quantile [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 16, at the 0.65 quantile; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 567, at the 0.187 quantile [1]