Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent weakening of 30-year government bonds and the potential for a re-pricing of the 30-year to 10-year government bond yield spread due to changes in institutional participation and expectations, despite a low interest rate environment [1][2]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Environment and Yield Spread - The narrowing of the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year government bonds since 2023 is attributed to both declining interest rates and the influence of trading and speculative forces [1]. - Historical data suggests that the core determinants of the 30-year to 10-year yield spread are not solely based on interest rates but also on the economic cycle and policy orientation [1][2]. Future Expectations - The low interest rate environment does not necessarily lead to a downward shift in the yield spread's central tendency or a continuous narrowing of its fluctuation range [2]. - The central tendency of the 30-year to 10-year yield spread may rise to 40 basis points (bp), with an expanded fluctuation range of 30-50 bp, influenced by changes in policy environment, economic expectations, and institutional behavior [2]. Long-term and Short-term Factors - Long-term factors affecting yield spread volatility include the pressure from the stock-bond relationship, price fluctuations in cyclical goods, and potential underperformance of monetary policy [3]. - In the short term, there are signs of recovery in the 10-year government bonds and T contracts, suggesting gradual participation, while the 30-year bonds require further observation [3]. Investment Strategy - If the 30-year to 10-year yield spread continues to widen, there may be entry opportunities, but investors should be aware of the current wide fluctuations, which could exceed 20 bp [3].