Group 1 - Bitcoin is facing its worst week since early March, with a market value loss of approximately $300 billion and a price drop of 6.2%, falling below the $100,000 mark for the first time since June [1] - Market sentiment has reversed since early October, when Bitcoin reached an all-time high driven by leveraged trading, but a $19 billion liquidation of crypto leverage positions has not restored confidence [1] - Galaxy Digital has revised its annual Bitcoin price forecast from $185,000 to $120,000 due to a significant reduction in leverage [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin has broken below its 365-day moving average (approximately $102,000), which has historically acted as a key support level, indicating a potential for significant price correction [2] - If Bitcoin fails to quickly reclaim the 365-day moving average, it may trigger further price declines [2] Group 3 - Despite a decline in tech stocks due to concerns over AI valuations, Bitcoin has not seen a similar buying response, remaining nearly 20% below its peak [5] - The open interest in Bitcoin futures has decreased by over $25 billion since its peak in October, reflecting investors' reluctance to increase bullish positions [5] - The correlation between Bitcoin and risk assets remains strong, with Bitcoin continuing to decline alongside other risk assets [5] Group 4 - Recent outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, totaling over $2 billion over six consecutive trading days, indicate a cautious attitude among institutional investors amid tight funding and ongoing policy uncertainty [8] - This trend of sustained selling reflects a focus on capital safety among U.S. institutional investors [8]

Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Gold has become the world's first-ever $30 trillion asset, rising more than 60% year-to-date to approximately $4,340 per ounce [1] - Since its 2022 bottom, gold has gained roughly 150% against the M2 money supply, approaching historically significant levels last seen during the peaks of 2011 and 1974 [2] - The current rally in gold could suggest a nearing top, but it may also indicate that the bull market has further potential, as seen during the 1970s stagflationary cycle where gold surged an additional 180% against M2 before its peak [2] Group 2: Gold vs Bitcoin - Gold's outperformance extends beyond the money supply, with the gold/bitcoin ratio up around 50% year-to-date [3] - Bitcoin is currently priced at approximately 24 ounces per BTC, which is around 40% below its all-time high set in December 2024 [3] - Bitcoin's total market capitalization represents about 7% of gold's total market value [3] Group 3: Bitcoin Market Capitalization - Bitcoin is approaching a market cap of $2 trillion, corresponding to a price level of roughly $100,000, which aligns closely with its 365-day moving average [4] - The 365-day moving average helps identify long-term trends and potential support or resistance levels for Bitcoin [4]