在传统金融市场迎来年末"圣诞行情"、风险偏好明显回暖之际，全球市值最大的加密货币比特币却几乎 毫无起色，显得格格不入。 周三，比特币价格徘徊在约8.7万美元附近，近期被"钉"在8.5万至9万美元的区间内，走势低迷、交投清 淡。这个一向以高波动性和投机情绪著称的资产，在年末却意外陷入停滞。 相比之下，比特币却"两头落空"。在2025年初的一段时间里，比特币走势曾与风险资产高度同步，但在 年末行情中却明显掉队；而其长期标榜的"数字黄金"属性，也未能吸引到推动金价上涨的防御性资金流 入。今年以来，比特币累计跌幅已超过7%。 数字资产研究机构BRN研究主管Timothy Misir指出："硬资产正在吸引作为长期对冲工具的资金，而加 密资产仍然被边缘化。" 本周即将到期的逾230亿美元比特币期权合约，抑制了方向性押注，叠加假期流动性下降，进一步加剧 了市场僵局。此外，长期持有者的持续抛售同样构成拖累。加密对冲基金Apollo Crypto的投资组合经理 Pratik Kala表示，今年比特币的价格表现"明显与极度利多的新闻周期脱节"。他认为，这主要源于早期 持有者的持续减持，以及包括10月急跌在内的被动抛售，令多次反弹 ...

2025年颠覆了以往熟悉的收益格局。加密货币陷入了长时间的下跌和盘整阶段，最终沦为表现最差的资产之一。与此同时，传统 资产却意外地成为年度最大赢家。白银和黄金的收益异常出色，而美国股指也稳步保持上涨势头。这种分化暴露出一个关键的行 业问题：2025年，加密货币失去了其作为防御性资产甚至另类资产的地位，重新回到了高风险资产的行列。 贵金属、美股"争夺"资金，加密货币2025年"虎头蛇尾" 2025年，贵金属表现最为强劲，加剧了与加密货币争夺笔资金的竞争——这些资金在不确定时期寻求避险。白银价格全年上涨约 140%，黄金价格上涨约70%，均创下历史新高。这波上涨行情具有结构性：对宽松货币政策和地缘政治风险的预期，促使投资者 转向那些具有简单保值功能的资产。 在普遍的不确定性下，投资者越来越倾向于选择那些历史悠久、监管清晰且流动性高的投资工具。可及性也发挥了作用：黄金和 白银可以通过交易所交易产品(包括ETF)轻松购买，而在数字领域，与实物资产挂钩的代币化产品——RWA解决方案——则仍在发 展。这降低了部分投资者的准入门槛，并支撑了对贵金属的需求。 在供应有限的背景下，工业需求(尤其是太阳能和电动汽车的需求)进一步 ...

Core Insights - Owen Gunden, an early Bitcoin holder, has liquidated his entire Bitcoin position, totaling approximately $1.3 billion, during a period of extreme market pessimism [3][5] - In contrast, institutional investors have increased their holdings in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, with their ownership percentage rising from 27% in Q2 2024 to 40% [3][6][8] Group 1: Owen Gunden's Liquidation - Owen Gunden transferred the last 2,499 Bitcoins, valued at $228 million, to the Kraken exchange, completing a sell-off of about 11,000 Bitcoins since October 21 [3][5] - Gunden is recognized as one of the wealthiest early Bitcoin holders, with a net worth of approximately $561 million [4] - The liquidation occurred amidst a highly pessimistic market sentiment, with the CryptoQuant bull market index dropping to 20/100, indicating extreme bearish conditions [3][9] Group 2: Institutional Investor Behavior - Despite retail investors' panic selling, institutional investors have been steadily increasing their positions in Bitcoin ETFs [6][8] - The latest 13-F filings indicate that approximately 1,119 institutions hold investments through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, with a significant rise in their ownership percentage [6][7] - The increase in institutional holdings occurs even as Bitcoin ETFs have experienced an outflow of $2.8 billion in November [8] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is at its lowest point in the cycle, with growing concerns about the end of the bull market leading to retail investors exiting [9][10] - The divergence in behavior between retail and institutional investors highlights a significant confidence gap among market participants [10]

Core Insights - Bitcoin price has dropped below $90,000 for the first time since April, marking a nearly 30% decline from its all-time high of $126,272 reached on October 7, 2023, and has erased all gains for the year [1] - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has decreased from $4.38 trillion to $3.28 trillion within a week, indicating a surge in market panic as the Fear and Greed Index fell to 11, the lowest since the 2022 bear market [1] - The market has experienced significant volatility, with major cryptocurrency exchanges facing operational issues during this period, leading to Binance announcing a compensation of approximately $300 million to affected users [1] Market Dynamics - The expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has plummeted from 95% to 44.4%, tightening liquidity in the banking system and increasing financing costs, which has triggered a sell-off in risk assets [2] - The narrative of support for cryptocurrencies from the Trump administration is losing traction, and increasing global regulatory scrutiny is challenging the perception of "absolute safety" in crypto assets [2] - Bitcoin has fallen below its 200-day moving average, forming a "death cross," and has breached the critical support level of $93,700, triggering algorithmic trading and liquidation of leveraged positions, resulting in over $800 million in liquidations in the past 24 hours [2] Investor Sentiment - Options traders are predominantly betting on further declines in Bitcoin, with a significant demand for put options at strike prices of $85,000 and $80,000 [2] - Despite the current extreme pessimism in the market, some analysts suggest that this correction aligns with typical mid-cycle adjustments in Bitcoin bull markets, with historical average pullbacks around 22% [2] - The structure of institutional holdings has not fundamentally collapsed, and if the Federal Reserve shifts towards a more accommodative policy and ETF fund flows stabilize, the market may find a technical bottom in the $86,000 to $88,000 range [2]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop of over 2%, erasing its year-to-date gains of 30%, with multiple cryptocurrencies following suit [1][3]. Market Performance - As of November 18, Bitcoin was priced at $91,935.6, while Ethereum was at $3,036.41, reflecting a 3% decline for Bitcoin and a 2.52% decline for Ethereum over the past 24 hours [4][3]. - In the last 24 hours, over 15,000 traders faced liquidation in the cryptocurrency market, with total liquidations amounting to approximately $530 million [1][2]. Macro Factors - The decline in Bitcoin's price is primarily driven by changes in liquidity expectations at the macro level, particularly following higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data [5]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has dropped to 44.4%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate has risen to 55.6% [5][7]. Institutional Behavior - There has been a noticeable outflow of institutional funds from the cryptocurrency market, with some Bitcoin ETFs experiencing net outflows, indicating a weakening interest from institutions [5]. - Despite the market downturn, some institutions, such as Strategy, have increased their Bitcoin holdings, purchasing 397 Bitcoins for approximately $45.6 million [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that if Bitcoin prices remain below $100,000, a more severe sell-off could occur, with a potential target near $74,000, indicating about a 30% downside from current levels [7]. - Fundstrat's Tom Lee maintains a bullish outlook, forecasting Bitcoin could reach between $150,000 and $200,000 by the end of 2025, despite recent market volatility [8].

Group 1 - Bitcoin price experienced a sharp decline, dropping to $93,778.6, erasing a 30% year-to-date gain, with a current price of $94,886.2, down 0.2% [2] - The primary driver of this decline is a change in liquidity expectations due to higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data, leading to decreased confidence in a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has fallen below 50% to 44.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate has risen to 55.6% [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that if the Federal Reserve maintains its current stance in December, tightening dollar liquidity will directly limit the performance of non-yielding assets, including Bitcoin [3] - Analyst Damian Chmiel warns that if Bitcoin remains below $100,000, it could trigger a more severe sell-off, with a potential target near $74,000, representing about a 30% downside from current levels [3] - Despite market volatility, some institutions are still entering the market, with Strategy Company recently purchasing 397 Bitcoins for approximately $45.6 million, bringing their total holdings to 641,205 Bitcoins at an average cost of $74,057 each [3]

Group 1 - Bitcoin price has experienced a significant drop, falling to $93,778.6, erasing its 30% year-to-date gain, with the current price at $94,886.2, down 0.2% [1] - The primary driver of this decline is the change in liquidity expectations due to higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data, leading to decreased confidence in a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping to 44.4% [1] - Institutional outflows have intensified market pressure, with a noticeable slowdown in inflows to U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicating a weakening appetite for cryptocurrency among institutions [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's latest report suggests that if the Federal Reserve maintains its current stance in December, the marginal tightening of dollar liquidity will suppress the performance of non-yielding assets, including Bitcoin [2] - Analysts warn that if Bitcoin remains below $100,000, it could trigger more aggressive sell-offs, with a potential target near $74,000, indicating about 30% downside from current levels [4] - Despite market volatility, some institutions are still entering the market, with Strategy Company recently purchasing 397 Bitcoins for approximately $45.6 million, bringing their total holdings to 641,205 Bitcoins at an average cost of $74,057 each [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market turmoil, particularly in technology stocks and cryptocurrencies, has highlighted the fragility of investor confidence and the risks associated with high leverage and speculative investments [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Overview - On November 4, U.S. stock indices experienced a significant drop, with the Nasdaq falling by 486 points, leading to a collective plunge in technology stocks, cryptocurrencies, and oil markets [1]. - Bitcoin's price fell below the psychological threshold of $100,000 for the first time since June, reaching a low of approximately $99,932, with a single-day decline exceeding 6% [3][5]. - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies saw a substantial decrease, with hundreds of billions of dollars evaporating in a single day [3][5]. Group 2: Factors Behind the Decline - The decline in asset prices is attributed to a shift in market sentiment, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which has led to a reassessment of previously high valuations [11][13]. - Statements from Federal Reserve officials, including Lisa Cook and Jerome Powell, have dampened expectations for imminent interest rate cuts, causing a rapid increase in the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds to 4.5% [11][13]. - The market's reliance on low-cost liquidity has been shaken, leading to a painful revaluation of assets that were previously buoyed by the expectation of continued monetary easing [11][13]. Group 3: Impact on Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, has been significantly affected by the reversal of monetary policy expectations, leading to a sharp decline in prices and a massive liquidation of leveraged positions [17][18]. - Over 40% of traders faced liquidation, with approximately $18 billion in funds wiped out within 24 hours, primarily affecting bullish positions concentrated around the $100,000 to $105,000 range [22][23]. - The fear and greed index for cryptocurrencies plunged into the "extreme fear" zone, indicating widespread panic among investors [25]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The current market conditions serve as a stark reminder of the risks associated with speculative investments and the dangers of high leverage, as evidenced by the rapid liquidation of positions in both the tech and crypto sectors [20][27]. - Analysts have warned of potential market corrections, with predictions of a 10% to 20% pullback in the stock market over the next one to two years [15]. - The collapse of previously inflated asset prices underscores the importance of valuing investments based on fundamentals rather than speculative narratives [29].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, is undergoing a significant adjustment, with prices dropping approximately 20% since early October, influenced by a liquidity crisis stemming from the U.S. government shutdown [1] Group 1: Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle - Bitcoin's four-year cycle is based on its halving mechanism, which reduces block rewards approximately every four years, leading to predictable supply shocks and historical price increases [2] - Historical patterns show that Bitcoin typically reaches a peak about 18 months after halving, followed by a bear market; the next halving is expected in April 2024 [2] - Some research suggests that Bitcoin may be moving away from traditional four-year cycles due to increased institutional investment and the introduction of spot ETFs, indicating a more mature market structure [2][3] Group 2: Supply Dynamics and Market Behavior - The impact of the upcoming 2024 halving on supply is expected to be weaker than in previous cycles, with the annual issuance rate dropping from approximately 1.7% to 0.85%, as most Bitcoin has already been mined [3] - Market pricing is becoming more reliant on capital inflow structures, particularly from institutional and long-term holders, rather than new supply changes [3] Group 3: Whale Selling and Market Trends - Recent data indicates that Bitcoin "whales" are reducing their holdings, while smaller retail wallets are increasing, aligning with typical behavior at the end of a market cycle [4] - Since August, whales have sold a total of 147,000 Bitcoins, valued at around $16 billion, with a decline in addresses holding over 1,000 Bitcoins [5] - The current selling pattern reflects a shift from whales selling to retail investors to a transfer of assets from old whales to new long-term holders, such as institutions and ETFs [9] Group 4: Liquidity Crisis and Market Impact - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a liquidity crisis, with the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance rising sharply, withdrawing significant liquidity from the market [10] - The TGA balance has increased from approximately $300 billion to $1 trillion, pulling over $700 billion in liquidity from the market, which has negatively impacted Bitcoin as a risk asset [12] - The tightening liquidity environment has resulted in increased overnight repo rates and a decline in bank reserves, further stressing market conditions [12][13] Group 5: Future Outlook and Potential Recovery - The potential reopening of the U.S. government could release significant liquidity back into the market, which may lead to a surge in demand for risk assets, including Bitcoin [20] - Analysts predict that once the government reopens, the release of pent-up liquidity could act as a catalyst for a strong rebound in Bitcoin and other sensitive assets [20] - Current trading prices for Bitcoin have fallen below the 200-day moving average, which may further suppress demand, highlighting the importance of technical indicators in investment strategies [21]

Group 1 - Bitcoin is facing its worst week since early March, with a market value loss of approximately $300 billion and a price drop of 6.2%, falling below the $100,000 mark for the first time since June [1] - Market sentiment has reversed since early October, when Bitcoin reached an all-time high driven by leveraged trading, but a $19 billion liquidation of crypto leverage positions has not restored confidence [1] - Galaxy Digital has revised its annual Bitcoin price forecast from $185,000 to $120,000 due to a significant reduction in leverage [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin has broken below its 365-day moving average (approximately $102,000), which has historically acted as a key support level, indicating a potential for significant price correction [2] - If Bitcoin fails to quickly reclaim the 365-day moving average, it may trigger further price declines [2] Group 3 - Despite a decline in tech stocks due to concerns over AI valuations, Bitcoin has not seen a similar buying response, remaining nearly 20% below its peak [5] - The open interest in Bitcoin futures has decreased by over $25 billion since its peak in October, reflecting investors' reluctance to increase bullish positions [5] - The correlation between Bitcoin and risk assets remains strong, with Bitcoin continuing to decline alongside other risk assets [5] Group 4 - Recent outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, totaling over $2 billion over six consecutive trading days, indicate a cautious attitude among institutional investors amid tight funding and ongoing policy uncertainty [8] - This trend of sustained selling reflects a focus on capital safety among U.S. institutional investors [8]