Core Viewpoint - The recent market turmoil, particularly in technology stocks and cryptocurrencies, has highlighted the fragility of investor confidence and the risks associated with high leverage and speculative investments [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Overview - On November 4, U.S. stock indices experienced a significant drop, with the Nasdaq falling by 486 points, leading to a collective plunge in technology stocks, cryptocurrencies, and oil markets [1]. - Bitcoin's price fell below the psychological threshold of $100,000 for the first time since June, reaching a low of approximately $99,932, with a single-day decline exceeding 6% [3][5]. - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies saw a substantial decrease, with hundreds of billions of dollars evaporating in a single day [3][5]. Group 2: Factors Behind the Decline - The decline in asset prices is attributed to a shift in market sentiment, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which has led to a reassessment of previously high valuations [11][13]. - Statements from Federal Reserve officials, including Lisa Cook and Jerome Powell, have dampened expectations for imminent interest rate cuts, causing a rapid increase in the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds to 4.5% [11][13]. - The market's reliance on low-cost liquidity has been shaken, leading to a painful revaluation of assets that were previously buoyed by the expectation of continued monetary easing [11][13]. Group 3: Impact on Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, has been significantly affected by the reversal of monetary policy expectations, leading to a sharp decline in prices and a massive liquidation of leveraged positions [17][18]. - Over 40% of traders faced liquidation, with approximately $18 billion in funds wiped out within 24 hours, primarily affecting bullish positions concentrated around the $100,000 to $105,000 range [22][23]. - The fear and greed index for cryptocurrencies plunged into the "extreme fear" zone, indicating widespread panic among investors [25]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The current market conditions serve as a stark reminder of the risks associated with speculative investments and the dangers of high leverage, as evidenced by the rapid liquidation of positions in both the tech and crypto sectors [20][27]. - Analysts have warned of potential market corrections, with predictions of a 10% to 20% pullback in the stock market over the next one to two years [15]. - The collapse of previously inflated asset prices underscores the importance of valuing investments based on fundamentals rather than speculative narratives [29].

作者：何浩，华尔街见闻 币圈正在经历一轮深度调整。比特币自10月初的历史高点至今，价格已下跌约20%。这一调整发生在比 特币"四年大周期"尾声。美国政府持续关门引发的流动性危机，正在加剧调整的深度和持续时间。 比特币四年大周期的历史轨迹 比特币的四年周期理论建立在其减半机制的基础之上。每当挖出21万个区块（约四年时间），矿工获得 的区块奖励就会减半，从而减少新比特币的供应量。这一机制创造了可预测的供应冲击，历史上多次引 发价格的周期性上涨。 回顾历史，比特币的四年周期表现出惊人的规律性： 2012年11月首次减半后，比特币价格从12美元飙升至约1100美元。 2016年7月第二次减半后，价格从约650美元涨至近2万美元。 2020年5月第三次减半后，价格从约8700美元攀升至超过67000美元。 2024年4月，比特币完成了第四次减半，区块奖励从6.25 BTC降至3.125 BTC。 每次减半后约十几个月，比特币都会达到周期性高点，随后进入熊市调整。当前距离2024年4月减半事 件已过去18个月。 不过一些研究机构指出，比特币市场可能正逐渐摆脱以往围绕"减半"形成的典型四年周期。Bitwise在其 比特币长 ...

智通财经APP获悉，比特币即将迎来自三月初以来最糟糕的一周。而且目前尚无迹象表明投资者已准备 好抄底，此次暴跌导致数字资产市场价值损失约 3000 亿美元。比特币本周迄今已下跌了 6.2%。在此期 间，其价格跌破了 10 万美元大关，为6月以来的首次。策略师们指出，一系列指标正对比特币及整个市 场发出警告。 这意味着市场情绪自10月初以来出现彻底的逆转。当时，比特币在杠杆交易的狂热推动下飙升至历史新 高。但随后价值 190 亿美元的加密货币杠杆头寸突然全部被清空，这一事件至今仍未让市场信心恢复。 Michael Novogratz旗下Galaxy Digital 周三将其对比特币的年度价格预期从 18.5 万美元下调至 12 万美 元，原因是"杠杆作用大幅缩水"。而且目前，加密货币市场也存在数个看跌信号。 据市场分析公司 CryptoQuant 的数据，比特币跌破其 365 天移动平均线(约 102，000 美元)这一水平，可 能预示着其将出现大幅回调。自 2023 年初以来一直保持稳定的这一支撑位，目前出现了破裂的迹象。 该公司在周三的一份报告中称："在本轮牛市中，365 日移动平均线一直充当着最终的支撑位 ...

来源：市场资讯 QCP 分析指出，比特币隔夜跌至关键支撑位 10 万美元，受美元走强及美联储政策不确定性影响，市场 风险偏好降温。美国现货比特币 ETF 连续四日净流出约 13 亿美元，叠加超 10 亿美元多头爆仓及期权 对冲加剧波动，令 BTC 短线承压。分析称，若 ETF 资金回稳且宏观无新增利空，市场情绪或将回暖。 （来源：吴说） ...