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甲醇产业风险管理日报-20250818
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 10:13
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the inventory data and coal prices weakened, the methanol 09 contract dropped significantly and gradually returned to fundamental pricing. The spread window between ports and the inland may open this week, and 09 short positions can be gradually closed near the reverse flow window. The 01 contract declined gradually as the 09 contract weakened, with the 9 - 1 spread around -100. There may still be room for the 9 - 1 reverse spread, but the best buying point for the 01 contract needs to wait [4]. - Iranian shipments exceeded expectations (700,000 tons shipped in August so far, expected to reach around 1 million tons this month), leading to significant port arrival pressure. The inventories in East and South China in August are almost full. Considering storage and resale costs, when the 9 - 1 spread reaches -120, selling the 09 contract for delivery provides a risk - free opportunity for the 01 contract. Overall, the expectation of port inventory accumulation remains strong, and the market is falling smoothly. However, the port goods have not reversed the flow (still short of around 20), and the willingness to hold goods needs to be strengthened. It is recommended to consider laying out long positions in the far - month contracts after the port reverse flow or storage fee increase and observe the port提货 situation [4]. - This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient, so the port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for methanol is 2200 - 2400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over 3 years. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there is concern about a methanol price decline, to prevent inventory losses, 25% of the methanol futures (MA2509) can be sold to lock in profits and make up for production costs at an entry range of 2250 - 2350. 50% of put options (MA2509P2) can be bought to prevent a sharp price drop, and 50% of call options (MA2509C2350) can be sold to reduce capital costs at an entry range of 45 - 60 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent rising methanol prices from increasing procurement costs, 50% of methanol futures (MA2509) can be bought at an entry range of 2200 - 2350. 75% of put options (MA2509P2) can be sold to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and if the price drops, the purchase price of spot methanol can be locked [3].