甲醇产业风险管理日报 2025/08/18 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 甲醇价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 | 2200-2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source： 南华研究 甲醇套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心甲醇价格下 跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空甲醇期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | MA2509 MA2509 ...

甲醇套保策略表 甲醇产业风险管理日报 2025/08/05 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 甲醇价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 | 2200-2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source： 南华研究 港口库存方面，本周预计外轮抵港码头较为分散，到港量较为充足，预计港口甲醇库存累库。 . 免責声明 本报告仅供本公司境内客户使用。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。本报告并非意图发送、发布给在当地法律或监管规 则下不允许向其发送、发布的机构或人员，也并非意图发送、发布给因可得到、使用本报告的行为而使本公司违反或受制于当地法律或监 管规则的机构或人员。本报告中的信息均来源于已公开的资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，本报告所载资料、意 见 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall fundamentals of methanol have weakened recently. Although it tested the bottom around 2350, most varieties rebounded due to anti - involution, and market expectations for policies were high. However, the coal - chemical sector, including methanol, struggled to keep up. The short - term outlook for methanol is weak, and attention should be paid to whether port提货 improves [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a percentile of 78.5% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short methanol futures (MA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 2250 - 2350. They can also buy put options (MA2509P2250) with a 50% ratio and sell call options (MA2509C2350) with a 45 - 60% ratio to prevent large price drops and reduce capital costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to prevent price increases, they can buy methanol futures (MA2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2200 - 2350. They can also sell put options (MA2509P2300) with a 75% ratio to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]. Core Contradictions - Methanol tested the bottom around 2350, but the coal - chemical sector couldn't keep up with the market rebound. The fundamentals weakened due to normal recovery in Iran (150,000 shipments as of the weekend), rumors of mto - end Xingxing's ship rerouting and potential shutdown, and poor port提货 after the geopolitical conflict, along with increased arrivals at port public tank farms in July leading to inventory accumulation and potential inventory expansion [4]. Negative Factors - This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient, so port methanol inventory is expected to increase [5].