Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint - Last week, methanol prices continued to decline as the fundamental situation of the 01 contract couldn't provide support. Although there was a rebound due to factors like plant shutdowns and gas restrictions, the increasing shipments from Iran made it difficult to relieve the pressure on ports. Even with the strong upward trend of thermal coal prices, it was still hard to support the cost of methanol in Henan. Considering the higher - than - average temperature in Iran, gas restrictions might be delayed until mid - November. The 11 - month shipments exceeded expectations, and port inventories were likely to remain high. The regional price difference indicated that the port would continue to flow back to Shandong, and then the Henan market would decline. Therefore, the 01 contract of methanol might continue to decline to find support. It was recommended to hold the previously sold call options and conduct a 12 - 1 reverse spread [6]. Section Summaries Methanol Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. Methanol Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When there is a risk of price decline and high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short methanol futures (MA2601, sell, 25% hedging ratio, entry range 2250 - 2350). They can also buy put options (MA2601P2250, buy, 50% hedging ratio) to prevent large price drops and sell call options (MA2601C2350, sell, 45 - 60) to reduce capital costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent rising procurement costs, enterprises can buy methanol futures (MA2601, buy, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2450 - 2550). They can also sell put options (MA2601P2300, sell, 75% hedging ratio, 20 - 25) to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the methanol price drops [3]. Market Analysis - **Supply and Demand**: The increase in Iranian shipments has put pressure on the 01 port contract. Although the increase in port inventory is limited recently, most of it is in floating storage, and the inventory is likely to remain high. The regional price difference shows that the port will flow back to Shandong, and then the Henan market will decline [6]. - **Cost**: Even if the thermal coal price in the northern port rises to 900, it is still difficult to support the cost of methanol in Henan [6]. - **Inventory Forecast**: This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient, so the port methanol inventory is expected to increase [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the methanol market was extreme, with the main trading point being the docking issue of sanctioned vessels. Although the docking issue may be resolved, it will affect the unloading rhythm and vessel return time. Iran is currently maintaining a high shipping volume, but vessel sanctions have slowed down port inventory accumulation, leading to an increase in the 15 positive spread and basis. The bullish view that sanctions will force early gas restrictions and shutdowns in Iran has not been confirmed. Due to unloading impacts, port inventory accumulation has become smoother, and the October inventory target has been lowered. The fundamental price range for methanol is expected to be between 2,250 and 2,350 yuan/ton [3]. - The near - term trading focus is on Sino - US negotiations. In October, Iran's shipments remained high, but due to Iranian sanctions, some ports prohibited vessel docking, causing the methanol basis to turn positive. The long - term debate centers on how to reduce port inventory. Currently, the inventory problem for the 2601 contract cannot be solved, and the 2605 contract is expected to be stronger than the 2601, leading to a reverse spread for the 15 spread, with the process being affected by macro sentiment [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The methanol market this week was characterized by extreme fluctuations, mainly due to the docking issue of sanctioned vessels. The problem is likely to be resolved, but it will impact the unloading rhythm and vessel return time. Iran is maintaining a high shipping volume, with about 640,000 tons shipped so far in October. Vessel sanctions have slowed port inventory accumulation, causing the 15 positive spread and basis to rise. The bullish view that sanctions will lead to early gas restrictions and plant shutdowns in Iran has not been verified. Port inventory accumulation has become smoother, and the October inventory target has been lowered. The fundamental price range for methanol is 2,250 - 2,350 yuan/ton. Next week is a macro - event - filled week, including a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [3]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Base - spread Strategy**: This week, the price of the methanol 01 contract was 2,282 yuan/ton. For inland external procurement, the 01 base - spread strengthened [13]. - **Month - spread Strategy**: With the continuous acceleration of Iranian shipments (reaching 640,000 tons), the market has little expectation for early gas restrictions this year. However, due to Iranian sanctions, port docking is prohibited, causing the methanol basis to turn positive and the 15 spread to move towards a positive spread [13]. - **Trend Judgment**: Methanol is expected to trade in a short - term range. The short - term operating range for the 2601 contract is 2,250 - 2,350 yuan/ton. It is recommended to continue holding the previously sold put options on the 2601 contract [14]. 3.1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation No specific written analysis is provided in the text, but there are multiple inventory - related charts, including methanol weekly inventory seasonality in the Northwest, methanol plant inventories in the South and North lines, and China's methanol enterprise weekly pending order volume seasonality [24][26][29]. 3.1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation No specific written analysis is provided in the text, but there are many port - inventory - related charts, such as China's methanol port weekly inventory seasonality, provincial - level methanol port weekly inventory seasonality, and methanol downstream inventory in the East China region [34][36][46]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for methanol is 2,200 - 2,500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over three years. For polypropylene and plastic, the price range is 6,800 - 7,400 yuan/ton, with volatilities of 10.56% and 15.24% and historical percentiles of 42.2% and 78.5% respectively [55]. - **Hedging Strategy Table**: Different hedging strategies are proposed for inventory management and procurement management based on different scenarios, including shorting or going long in methanol futures, buying or selling put and call options [55]. - **Positive Information**: Sanctions have prevented some methanol vessels from docking and unloading, such as Yanghong not accepting sanctioned vessels. Importers' replenishment has slightly strengthened the basis. The 450,000 - ton MTO unit of Lianhong Phase II is expected to start feeding as early as the end of November [56][57]. - **Negative Information**: Iran shipped 1.06 million tons in September and 640,000 tons so far in October [57]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch On the morning of October 18th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call, agreeing to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [58]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - In the domestic market, the production areas performed weaker than the consumption areas. Although traders actively purchased at the beginning of the week due to the disk rally, the lack of external procurement news from northwest olefin plants and the active price - cutting by methanol plants in the production areas to maintain low inventories led to a decline in methanol prices in the production areas. Downstream users' price - pressing purchases also caused the market in the consumption areas to decline [59]. - This week, the 1 - 5 month spread strengthened, mainly due to sanctions on Iran [61]. 3.4 Price and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking in the Industry Chain The text provides price data for various products in the methanol industry chain, including domestic and international market prices of methanol, downstream product prices, and prices of related raw materials such as coal [5][7]. 3.4.2 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain The text shows the production costs and profit seasonality of different methanol production methods, such as coal - based production in Inner Mongolia and Shandong, natural - gas - based production in the Southwest, and coke - oven - gas - based production [79][83][84]. 3.4.3 Upstream and Downstream Production and Output Tracking in the Industry Chain The text presents the weekly operating rates and production seasonality of different methanol production methods and downstream products, including coal - single - alcohol, coal - combined - alcohol, coke - oven - gas - based methanol, and MTO units [86][89][94]. 3.4.4 Import and Export Price and Profit Tracking The text includes information on the import volume seasonality of methanol from different countries, the external market structure of methanol, and the import profit seasonality of Iranian methanol [120][121]. 3.4.5 Overseas Operating Rate Tracking The text provides data on the weekly capacity utilization rate seasonality of foreign methanol production, the operating rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants, and their weekly production [124][126][128]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection The text provides a supply - demand balance sheet projection for methanol from January to December 2025, including production, consumption, inventory, and inventory changes [131]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Projection This week, in domestic methanol plants, Jinneng Huayu in North China started to increase the load of a furnace after shutting it down on October 9th. In Central China, the market was mainly affected by the resumption of the Henan Hebi plant. In Northwest China, there were both restarts and overhauls of plants, including the restart of the Xilaifeng plant and the load increase of Shaanxi Runzhong, while plants such as Zhongmei Yuanxing, Yulin Kaiyue, Inner Mongolia Donghua, and Ningxia Hening were shut down for maintenance [132]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - Downstream MTO units: Xingxing returned on September 12th, and Chengzhi increased its load at the beginning of September. - New demand projects: The MTO unit of Lianhong Phase II was planned to be handed over on September 26th, earlier than expected, and has started stockpiling. - Iran maintains a high shipping volume [136].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, energy and chemical products are still considered as short - positions by funds. The long positions in the methanol 01 contract are mainly held by the industry, while the short positions are mainly held by foreign investors. The contract has been weak since the holiday due to high shipments from Iran in October, which exceeded market expectations and reduced the possibility of early gas restrictions. The short - term price range is 2250 - 2350, and it's advisable to buy a small bottom position at low prices [6]. - The restriction of methanol transport ships due to Sino - US trade has a short - term bullish impact on methanol, but mainly affects the unloading rhythm and ship return time in the long run. With the escalation of Sino - US trade, the market fear has increased, and the trading focus has shifted back to the macro - level [6]. - High supply persists, demand reaches a new high this year, but the inventory pressure remains unsolved [6]. - This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered and sufficient, and port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. 3.2 Methanol Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about falling methanol prices, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short methanol futures (MA2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 2250 - 2350. They can also buy put options (MA2601P2250) to prevent sharp price drops and sell call options (MA2601C2350) to reduce capital costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 15 - 20 for put options and 45 - 60 for call options [3]. Procurement Management - When the procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, to prevent rising procurement costs, they can buy methanol futures (MA2601) at present to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2450 - 2550. They can also sell put options (MA2601P2300) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 20 - 25 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint Restricted by gas supply, methanol prices are rebounding. Considering Iran's low inventory and the potential for a sharp decline in shipments due to gas - related shutdowns, short - sellers are more willing to reduce positions, and long - positions are entering the market, leading to marginal improvement in methanol. The 1 - 5 and 11 - 1 spreads show strong expectations for the 01 contract. After the low - level entry opportunity presented by the 09 contract delivery, it is recommended to hold long positions and short put options. Fundamentally, downstream demand is improving, with increased procurement and higher olefin plant operation rates. It is suggested to continue holding long positions and short put options [4]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. Methanol Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about falling methanol prices, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short methanol futures (MA2601) at a 25% ratio in the 2250 - 2350 range, buy put options (MA2601P2250) at a 50% ratio, and short call options (MA2601C2350) at a certain ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and the company wants to purchase based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy methanol futures (MA2601) at a 50% ratio in the 2450 - 2550 range, short put options (MA2601P2300) at a 75% ratio to reduce procurement costs and lock in purchase prices [3]. Core Contradictions - Restricted by gas supply, methanol prices are rebounding. Short - sellers are reducing positions, and long - positions are entering the market. The 1 - 5 and 11 - 1 spreads show strong expectations for the 01 contract. After the 09 contract delivery, it is recommended to hold long positions and short put options. Downstream demand is improving, with increased procurement and higher olefin plant operation rates [4]. Negative Factors - This week, the arrival of foreign vessels at ports is expected to be scattered, and the port inventory of methanol is expected to increase [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Methanol Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 1, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Volatility - Methanol price range forecast (monthly): 2200 - 2500, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 20.01%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 51.2% [3] - Polypropylene price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.56%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 42.2% [3] - Plastic price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.24%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 78.5% [3] Group 3: Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - Situation: High finished - product inventory, worried about methanol price decline. Strategy: Short methanol futures (MA2601) to lock in profits, with a 25% hedging ratio and recommended entry interval of 2250 - 2350; buy put options (MA2601P2250) to prevent price drops, with a 50% hedging ratio; sell call options (MA2601C2350) to reduce capital costs, with a 45 - 60% hedging ratio [3] Procurement Management - Situation: Low procurement standing inventory, want to purchase according to order situation. Strategy: Buy methanol futures (MA2601) to lock in procurement costs, with a 50% hedging ratio and recommended entry interval of 2450 - 2550; sell put options (MA2601P2300) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a 75% hedging ratio [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Methanol 9 - 1, 1 - 5 continuous reverse - spread logic, main contradiction lies in port pressure and high shipments from Iran. As of now, Iran's August shipments are around 1.04 million tons, breaking historical highs, causing methanol 1 - 5 to decline. The 01 contract will face port pressure, while the 05 contract may be more affected by Iran's shutdown. Suggest to hold a small number of long positions and sold put options, and follow up on Iran's shipments and port pick - ups [4] Group 5: Negative Factors - This week, it is expected that the arrival of foreign vessels at ports will be scattered and the arrival volume will be sufficient, so the port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate [4]

Report Summary 1. Price Range Forecast - Methanol price range forecast (monthly): 2200 - 2400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 20.01%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 51.2% [3] - Polypropylene price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.56%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 42.2% [3] - Plastic price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.24%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 78.5% [3] 2. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and concern about methanol price decline (long position): - Short methanol futures (MA2509) to lock in profit and cover production cost, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 2250 - 2350 [3] - Buy put options (MA2509P2250) to prevent price slump and sell call options (MA2509C2350) to reduce capital cost, with a hedging ratio of 50% and entry ranges of 15 - 20 and 45 - 60 respectively [3] Procurement Management - For low - level procurement inventory and purchase based on orders (short position): - Buy methanol futures (MA2509) to lock in procurement cost, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2200 - 2350 [3] - Sell put options (MA2509P2300) to collect premiums and reduce procurement cost, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 20 - 25 [3] 3. Core Contradictions - Methanol 09 contract oscillates weakly, with contradictions in near - term weakness and high shipments from Iran. Port pressure remains high, and the 91 reverse spread is expected to be around - 120 [4] - Iran's shipments exceed expectations (850,000 tons in August so far, likely to exceed 1 million tons this month), causing great pressure on port arrivals. Inventories in East and South China in August are almost full [4] - After the 91 spread reaches - 120, selling 09 for delivery to 01 is risk - free considering storage and transfer costs. The inland market weakens this week, with Xinjiang's goods flowing out, rising开工 in the Northwest, and low procurement enthusiasm from traditional downstream industries [4] 4. Negative Factors - This week, expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, with sufficient arrivals, leading to an expected increase in port methanol inventory [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the inventory data and coal prices weakened, the methanol 09 contract dropped significantly and gradually returned to fundamental pricing. The spread window between ports and the inland may open this week, and 09 short positions can be gradually closed near the reverse flow window. The 01 contract declined gradually as the 09 contract weakened, with the 9 - 1 spread around -100. There may still be room for the 9 - 1 reverse spread, but the best buying point for the 01 contract needs to wait [4]. - Iranian shipments exceeded expectations (700,000 tons shipped in August so far, expected to reach around 1 million tons this month), leading to significant port arrival pressure. The inventories in East and South China in August are almost full. Considering storage and resale costs, when the 9 - 1 spread reaches -120, selling the 09 contract for delivery provides a risk - free opportunity for the 01 contract. Overall, the expectation of port inventory accumulation remains strong, and the market is falling smoothly. However, the port goods have not reversed the flow (still short of around 20), and the willingness to hold goods needs to be strengthened. It is recommended to consider laying out long positions in the far - month contracts after the port reverse flow or storage fee increase and observe the port提货 situation [4]. - This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient, so the port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for methanol is 2200 - 2400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over 3 years. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there is concern about a methanol price decline, to prevent inventory losses, 25% of the methanol futures (MA2509) can be sold to lock in profits and make up for production costs at an entry range of 2250 - 2350. 50% of put options (MA2509P2) can be bought to prevent a sharp price drop, and 50% of call options (MA2509C2350) can be sold to reduce capital costs at an entry range of 45 - 60 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent rising methanol prices from increasing procurement costs, 50% of methanol futures (MA2509) can be bought at an entry range of 2200 - 2350. 75% of put options (MA2509P2) can be sold to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and if the price drops, the purchase price of spot methanol can be locked [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - "Anti - involution" sentiment recedes, the market returns to fundamentals, and the methanol industry is weak after excluding macro - interference. In the short - term, the fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to downstream resistance and the port - inland price difference [4] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Methanol Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for methanol is 2200 - 2400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, volatility is 10.56%, and historical percentile is 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, volatility is 15.24%, and historical percentile is 78.5% [3] Methanol Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management (High Product Inventory, Fear of Price Drop)**: To prevent inventory losses, short methanol futures (MA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 2250 - 2350. Buy put options (MA2509P2250) and sell call options (MA2509C2350) with a 50% and 45 - 60% hedging ratio respectively [3] - **Procurement Management (Low Standing Inventory, Purchase Based on Orders)**: To prevent price increases, buy methanol futures (MA2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2200 - 2350. Sell put options (MA2509P2300) with a 75% hedging ratio to reduce procurement costs [3] Core Contradictions - Xingxing's shutdown is confirmed, changing the previous non - shutdown expectation. Iranian shipments in July exceeded expectations by about 50,000 tons, reaching 753,000 tons. Combined with poor port提货 due to typhoons, there is high port arrival pressure in August, increasing 08 warehouse receipts. Downstream profits are poor, and although Baofeng maintained inland prices this week, other downstream sectors are weak in following the price increase [4] Negative Factors - This week, it is expected that foreign vessels will arrive at scattered ports, with sufficient arrival volume, and port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall fundamentals of methanol have weakened recently. Although it tested the bottom around 2350, most varieties rebounded due to anti - involution, and market expectations for policies were high. However, the coal - chemical sector, including methanol, struggled to keep up. The short - term outlook for methanol is weak, and attention should be paid to whether port提货 improves [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a percentile of 78.5% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short methanol futures (MA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 2250 - 2350. They can also buy put options (MA2509P2250) with a 50% ratio and sell call options (MA2509C2350) with a 45 - 60% ratio to prevent large price drops and reduce capital costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to prevent price increases, they can buy methanol futures (MA2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2200 - 2350. They can also sell put options (MA2509P2300) with a 75% ratio to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]. Core Contradictions - Methanol tested the bottom around 2350, but the coal - chemical sector couldn't keep up with the market rebound. The fundamentals weakened due to normal recovery in Iran (150,000 shipments as of the weekend), rumors of mto - end Xingxing's ship rerouting and potential shutdown, and poor port提货 after the geopolitical conflict, along with increased arrivals at port public tank farms in July leading to inventory accumulation and potential inventory expansion [4]. Negative Factors - This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient, so port methanol inventory is expected to increase [5].