甲醇产业风险管理日报 2025/09/11 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 甲醇价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 | 2200-2500 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source： 南华研究 甲醇套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心甲醇价格下 跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空甲醇期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | MA2601 MA2601 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Methanol Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 1, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Volatility - Methanol price range forecast (monthly): 2200 - 2500, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 20.01%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 51.2% [3] - Polypropylene price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.56%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 42.2% [3] - Plastic price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.24%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 78.5% [3] Group 3: Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - Situation: High finished - product inventory, worried about methanol price decline. Strategy: Short methanol futures (MA2601) to lock in profits, with a 25% hedging ratio and recommended entry interval of 2250 - 2350; buy put options (MA2601P2250) to prevent price drops, with a 50% hedging ratio; sell call options (MA2601C2350) to reduce capital costs, with a 45 - 60% hedging ratio [3] Procurement Management - Situation: Low procurement standing inventory, want to purchase according to order situation. Strategy: Buy methanol futures (MA2601) to lock in procurement costs, with a 50% hedging ratio and recommended entry interval of 2450 - 2550; sell put options (MA2601P2300) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a 75% hedging ratio [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Methanol 9 - 1, 1 - 5 continuous reverse - spread logic, main contradiction lies in port pressure and high shipments from Iran. As of now, Iran's August shipments are around 1.04 million tons, breaking historical highs, causing methanol 1 - 5 to decline. The 01 contract will face port pressure, while the 05 contract may be more affected by Iran's shutdown. Suggest to hold a small number of long positions and sold put options, and follow up on Iran's shipments and port pick - ups [4] Group 5: Negative Factors - This week, it is expected that the arrival of foreign vessels at ports will be scattered and the arrival volume will be sufficient, so the port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate [4]

Report Summary 1. Price Range Forecast - Methanol price range forecast (monthly): 2200 - 2400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 20.01%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 51.2% [3] - Polypropylene price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.56%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 42.2% [3] - Plastic price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.24%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 78.5% [3] 2. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and concern about methanol price decline (long position): - Short methanol futures (MA2509) to lock in profit and cover production cost, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 2250 - 2350 [3] - Buy put options (MA2509P2250) to prevent price slump and sell call options (MA2509C2350) to reduce capital cost, with a hedging ratio of 50% and entry ranges of 15 - 20 and 45 - 60 respectively [3] Procurement Management - For low - level procurement inventory and purchase based on orders (short position): - Buy methanol futures (MA2509) to lock in procurement cost, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2200 - 2350 [3] - Sell put options (MA2509P2300) to collect premiums and reduce procurement cost, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 20 - 25 [3] 3. Core Contradictions - Methanol 09 contract oscillates weakly, with contradictions in near - term weakness and high shipments from Iran. Port pressure remains high, and the 91 reverse spread is expected to be around - 120 [4] - Iran's shipments exceed expectations (850,000 tons in August so far, likely to exceed 1 million tons this month), causing great pressure on port arrivals. Inventories in East and South China in August are almost full [4] - After the 91 spread reaches - 120, selling 09 for delivery to 01 is risk - free considering storage and transfer costs. The inland market weakens this week, with Xinjiang's goods flowing out, rising开工 in the Northwest, and low procurement enthusiasm from traditional downstream industries [4] 4. Negative Factors - This week, expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, with sufficient arrivals, leading to an expected increase in port methanol inventory [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the inventory data and coal prices weakened, the methanol 09 contract dropped significantly and gradually returned to fundamental pricing. The spread window between ports and the inland may open this week, and 09 short positions can be gradually closed near the reverse flow window. The 01 contract declined gradually as the 09 contract weakened, with the 9 - 1 spread around -100. There may still be room for the 9 - 1 reverse spread, but the best buying point for the 01 contract needs to wait [4]. - Iranian shipments exceeded expectations (700,000 tons shipped in August so far, expected to reach around 1 million tons this month), leading to significant port arrival pressure. The inventories in East and South China in August are almost full. Considering storage and resale costs, when the 9 - 1 spread reaches -120, selling the 09 contract for delivery provides a risk - free opportunity for the 01 contract. Overall, the expectation of port inventory accumulation remains strong, and the market is falling smoothly. However, the port goods have not reversed the flow (still short of around 20), and the willingness to hold goods needs to be strengthened. It is recommended to consider laying out long positions in the far - month contracts after the port reverse flow or storage fee increase and observe the port提货 situation [4]. - This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient, so the port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for methanol is 2200 - 2400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over 3 years. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there is concern about a methanol price decline, to prevent inventory losses, 25% of the methanol futures (MA2509) can be sold to lock in profits and make up for production costs at an entry range of 2250 - 2350. 50% of put options (MA2509P2) can be bought to prevent a sharp price drop, and 50% of call options (MA2509C2350) can be sold to reduce capital costs at an entry range of 45 - 60 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent rising methanol prices from increasing procurement costs, 50% of methanol futures (MA2509) can be bought at an entry range of 2200 - 2350. 75% of put options (MA2509P2) can be sold to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and if the price drops, the purchase price of spot methanol can be locked [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - "Anti - involution" sentiment recedes, the market returns to fundamentals, and the methanol industry is weak after excluding macro - interference. In the short - term, the fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to downstream resistance and the port - inland price difference [4] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Methanol Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for methanol is 2200 - 2400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, volatility is 10.56%, and historical percentile is 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, volatility is 15.24%, and historical percentile is 78.5% [3] Methanol Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management (High Product Inventory, Fear of Price Drop)**: To prevent inventory losses, short methanol futures (MA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 2250 - 2350. Buy put options (MA2509P2250) and sell call options (MA2509C2350) with a 50% and 45 - 60% hedging ratio respectively [3] - **Procurement Management (Low Standing Inventory, Purchase Based on Orders)**: To prevent price increases, buy methanol futures (MA2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2200 - 2350. Sell put options (MA2509P2300) with a 75% hedging ratio to reduce procurement costs [3] Core Contradictions - Xingxing's shutdown is confirmed, changing the previous non - shutdown expectation. Iranian shipments in July exceeded expectations by about 50,000 tons, reaching 753,000 tons. Combined with poor port提货 due to typhoons, there is high port arrival pressure in August, increasing 08 warehouse receipts. Downstream profits are poor, and although Baofeng maintained inland prices this week, other downstream sectors are weak in following the price increase [4] Negative Factors - This week, it is expected that foreign vessels will arrive at scattered ports, with sufficient arrival volume, and port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall fundamentals of methanol have weakened recently. Although it tested the bottom around 2350, most varieties rebounded due to anti - involution, and market expectations for policies were high. However, the coal - chemical sector, including methanol, struggled to keep up. The short - term outlook for methanol is weak, and attention should be paid to whether port提货 improves [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a percentile of 78.5% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short methanol futures (MA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 2250 - 2350. They can also buy put options (MA2509P2250) with a 50% ratio and sell call options (MA2509C2350) with a 45 - 60% ratio to prevent large price drops and reduce capital costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to prevent price increases, they can buy methanol futures (MA2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2200 - 2350. They can also sell put options (MA2509P2300) with a 75% ratio to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]. Core Contradictions - Methanol tested the bottom around 2350, but the coal - chemical sector couldn't keep up with the market rebound. The fundamentals weakened due to normal recovery in Iran (150,000 shipments as of the weekend), rumors of mto - end Xingxing's ship rerouting and potential shutdown, and poor port提货 after the geopolitical conflict, along with increased arrivals at port public tank farms in July leading to inventory accumulation and potential inventory expansion [4]. Negative Factors - This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient, so port methanol inventory is expected to increase [5].