Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The absolute price of coking coal and coke is hard to say the bottom has appeared, and the relative price of coke has a larger decline space. Affected by market sentiment, coal and coke will still be used as short - position varieties in the black market, treated with a weak and volatile trend. Strategies should focus on narrowing coking profit and 9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1][23] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Last Week's Market Review - **Futures Market**: The opening price of the main coking coal contract JM2509 last week was 877.0 yuan/ton, with a high of 905.0 yuan/ton, a low of 852.0 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 852.5 yuan/ton, a change of - 19.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week's settlement price, with a trading volume of 2,475,262.0 lots and an open interest of 444,587.0 lots. The opening price of the main coke contract J2509 was 1,453.0 yuan/ton, with a high of 1,495.0 yuan/ton, a low of 1,432.0 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 1,445.5 yuan/ton, a change of - 6.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week's settlement price, with a trading volume of 127,728.0 lots and an open interest of 50,533.0 lots [3] - **Basis Analysis**: The basis of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 133 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main coke contract was - 8 yuan/ton [3] - **Spread Analysis**: The spread between the main coke contract 2509 and the main coking coal contract 2509 was 593.0 yuan/ton [3] Domestic Spot - The price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu was 1090 yuan/ton (- 30); S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 1047 yuan/ton (- 6); S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 3) in Shaheyi was 1008 yuan/ton (- 5) [4] Port Inventory and Quotations - As of May 17, 2025, the total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 7.59 million tons; at Caofeidian Port was 5.65 million tons; at Jingtang Port was 8.101 million tons; and at Xingang of Guangzhou Port was 0.453 million tons [10] - The ex - warehouse price of Shanxi main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1400 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of Australian main coking coal at Qingdao Port was 1305 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of Australian main coking coal at Lianyungang was 1305 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of Australian main coking coal at Rizhao Port was 1190 yuan/ton, and the ex - warehouse price of Australian main coking coal at Tianjin Port was 1295 yuan/ton [10] Freight Rate Fluctuations - As of May 16, 2025, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index (CBCFI) was 661.75, the Panamax Freight Index (BPI) was 1290.00, the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) was 2018.00, the Supramax Freight Index (BSI) was 978.00, and the Handysize Freight Index (BHSI) was 472.00 [12] Coking Industry - **Coke Price Index**: The price of quasi - first - grade coke in Lvliang was 1210 yuan/ton (-); in Tangshan was 1410 yuan/ton (-); and at Rizhao Port was 1320 yuan/ton (- 20) [15] - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of 247 steel mills this week was 685.5 tons, and the coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 67.06 tons [17] Technical Analysis - The coking coal JM2509 contract closed down last week, with a lower support level of 800 - 900 yuan/ton and an upper resistance level of 1200 yuan/ton. The coke J2509 contract also closed down last week, with a lower support level of 1300 yuan/ton and an upper resistance level of 1600 yuan/ton [21] Views and Operation Suggestions - **Viewpoint**: The absolute price is hard to say the bottom has appeared, and the relative price of coke has a larger decline space. Affected by market sentiment, coal and coke will still be used as short - position varieties in the black market, treated with a weak and volatile trend [23] - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range trading [24]