Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in coking coal futures indicate a volatile market, with supply tightening and demand showing signs of decline, leading to potential price adjustments in the near future [6] Supply - As of August 28, the average daily coking coal production from independent coking plants was 645,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.9% [3] - The total daily coking coal production from 247 steel mills was 461,000 tons, down by 0.6% week-on-week, resulting in a total production of 1,106,000 tons, which is a 1.6% decrease from the previous week [3] Demand - The average daily pig iron production was 2,401,300 tons as of August 28, reflecting a decrease of 620 tons week-on-week [4] - The blast furnace operating rate was 83.20%, down by 0.16% week-on-week, while the iron-making capacity utilization rate was 90.02%, a decrease of 0.23% [4] - The profitability of steel mills was reported at 63.64%, down by 1.30% week-on-week [4] Inventory - As of August 28, the total coking coal inventory was 9.44 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 15,000 tons [5] - The inventory at independent coking plants was 653,000 tons, up by 9,000 tons week-on-week, while the inventory at 247 steel mills was 6.101 million tons, an increase of 5,000 tons [5] - Port inventory stood at 2.687 million tons, with a slight increase of 1,000 tons week-on-week [5] Price Movements - The main coking coal futures contract closed at 1,596.5, up by 2.0 (+0.13%), while the far-month contract closed at 1,689.0, down by 2.0 (-0.12%) [1] - The seventh round of price increases for coking coal was implemented at 50/55 yuan/ton, with the price for premium coking coal in Shanxi at 1,340 yuan/ton [1][6] - The eighth round of price increases faced resistance, with a steel plant in Ningxia reducing prices [1][6] Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience price adjustments due to improved coking profits and the gradual easing of production restrictions, leading to a potential increase in supply [6] - The steel industry is implementing strategies to control total production, which may negatively impact coal and coking coal demand [6]

煤焦周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 日期：2025年6月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：供应扰动仍存，震荡偏强 ◆ 1、供应：山西供应环比降幅收窄，预计产量有所修复 ➢ 国内方面，近两日山西临汾、长治地区部分因集团其他矿点事故以及安全检查停产的煤矿恢复生产，但供应恢复仍需时间；本周内蒙地区环保检查升级，区域内供 应继续收紧，叠加市场前期持续降价，山东部分企业因煤价低位以及井下等原因生产也有减量，本周煤矿减量依然明显，中国煤炭资源网统计本周样本煤矿原煤产 量周环比减少11.72万吨至1212.01万吨，产能利用率周环比下降0.82%至84.32%。海外方面，本周蒙煤市场成交好转，随着国内市场情绪升温，叠加期货盘面上涨， 期现贸易商拿货积极，另外近日内蒙区域供应下滑明显，部分焦企增加蒙煤采购，整体影响口岸成交明显放量，贸易商继续上调报价，蒙5原煤涨至730-750元/吨左 右。 ◆ 2、需求：厂库小幅提升，高性价比资源成交改善 ➢ 当前虽处消费淡季，但钢厂利润尚 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 5 月 18 日 焦煤焦炭：焦炭一轮提降落地，震荡偏弱 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 报告导读： 上周焦煤焦炭呈现宽幅震荡格局。 空头：1、焦炭一轮提降落地，虽然铁水产量保持高位，但下游及终端受五月需求预期转弱影响，钢厂补库 动力有所减弱。 绝对价格难言底部出现，相对价格焦炭跌幅空间更大，后续仍需关注供应端的扰动及情绪因素影响。一方面 原因是来自焦炭此前一直维持在升水格局，而前期升水的原因是因为具备交割成本优势的湿熄焦资源较为 紧俏所导致，但随着进入交割月部分仓单注销重新流入现货市场之后，交割压力有所缓解。另一方面则是来 自焦炭提降的风声再起所导致，在 4 月底山东、山西以及河北区域对于焦企提出的二轮提涨不予接受之后， 本周新一轮的焦炭提降落地。考虑到目前钢厂整体库存水平偏高，以及需求暂时没有明显缺口，港口贸易商 出货同样较为困难等因素，市场已提前交易落地预期。综合来看，受市场情绪影响，煤焦仍将作为黑色中的 空配品种，以震荡偏弱对待，策略方面关注做缩焦化利润及 91 正套。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ...