Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in coking coal futures indicate a volatile market, with supply tightening and demand showing signs of decline, leading to potential price adjustments in the near future [6] Supply - As of August 28, the average daily coking coal production from independent coking plants was 645,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.9% [3] - The total daily coking coal production from 247 steel mills was 461,000 tons, down by 0.6% week-on-week, resulting in a total production of 1,106,000 tons, which is a 1.6% decrease from the previous week [3] Demand - The average daily pig iron production was 2,401,300 tons as of August 28, reflecting a decrease of 620 tons week-on-week [4] - The blast furnace operating rate was 83.20%, down by 0.16% week-on-week, while the iron-making capacity utilization rate was 90.02%, a decrease of 0.23% [4] - The profitability of steel mills was reported at 63.64%, down by 1.30% week-on-week [4] Inventory - As of August 28, the total coking coal inventory was 9.44 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 15,000 tons [5] - The inventory at independent coking plants was 653,000 tons, up by 9,000 tons week-on-week, while the inventory at 247 steel mills was 6.101 million tons, an increase of 5,000 tons [5] - Port inventory stood at 2.687 million tons, with a slight increase of 1,000 tons week-on-week [5] Price Movements - The main coking coal futures contract closed at 1,596.5, up by 2.0 (+0.13%), while the far-month contract closed at 1,689.0, down by 2.0 (-0.12%) [1] - The seventh round of price increases for coking coal was implemented at 50/55 yuan/ton, with the price for premium coking coal in Shanxi at 1,340 yuan/ton [1][6] - The eighth round of price increases faced resistance, with a steel plant in Ningxia reducing prices [1][6] Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience price adjustments due to improved coking profits and the gradual easing of production restrictions, leading to a potential increase in supply [6] - The steel industry is implementing strategies to control total production, which may negatively impact coal and coking coal demand [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - The price increase this week was mainly driven by supply - side sentiment. Affected by environmental inspections in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, some coal mines and coal washing plants suspended transportation. The reduction in production area supply and low inventories of coking and steel enterprises after previous raw material consumption led downstream to increase procurement of high - cost - effective and scarce resources. The marginal repair of supply - demand contradictions drove the market to rise. However, considering future复产 actions and the further reduction of long - term contracts for Mongolian coal in the third quarter, the market's expectation of long - term supply capacity remains unchanged. Short - term event - based disturbances may boost prices, but there may be callback pressure as the fundamentals are repaired. The investment outlook is to shrink coking profit margins [3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Domestic coal**: In recent days, some coal mines in Linfen and Changzhi, Shanxi, which were shut down due to accidents at other mines in the group and safety inspections, have resumed production, but full recovery takes time. In Inner Mongolia, environmental inspections have tightened supply this week. In Shandong, some enterprises reduced production due to low coal prices and underground issues. The sample coal mine raw coal output decreased by 11720 tons week - on - week to 1212010 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.82% to 84.32% [3] - **Overseas coal**: The Mongolian coal market saw improved trading this week. With the warming of the domestic market sentiment and the rise of the futures market, spot - futures traders were more active in purchasing. Some coking enterprises increased their purchases of Mongolian coal due to the significant decline in Inner Mongolia's regional supply. Mongolian No. 5 raw coal prices rose to around 730 - 750 yuan/ton [3] - **Coke**: Independent coking plants' daily average output was 64500 tons (- 200 tons), and steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average output was 47400 tons (+ 0 tons) [8] 3.2 Demand - Although it is the off - season for consumption, steel mills have good profits, and finished product inventories are in a downward cycle. Hot metal production remains at a relatively high level, so there is still rigid demand for coke. With the increasing expectation of stable coke prices, a small number of steel mills replenished their inventories moderately, and spot - futures traders also started to enter the market to buy, improving coking enterprises' sales and reducing inventory [4] 3.3 Inventory - **Coke**: After the fourth round of coke price cuts, the market sentiment of stable prices is growing. A small number of steel mills increased raw material procurement appropriately. However, due to the lack of a short - term rebound expectation for coke and relatively high inventories in some steel mills, most enterprises are still cautious in purchasing. The available days of coke inventory in monitored steel enterprises decreased by 0.35 days to 10.97 days compared with the same period last week [5] - **Coking coal**: MS total inventory decreased by 79000 tons; mine inventory decreased by 44400 tons; independent coking plant inventory increased by 13200 tons; steel mill coking plant inventory increased by 6500 tons; port inventory decreased by 44300 tons; port of entry inventory decreased by 9200 tons [8] 3.4 Coal - Coke Fundamental Data | Fundamental Changes | Coking Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 852890 tons (- 3550 tons); FW clean coal 434920 tons (- 2310 tons) | Independent coking plants' daily average 64500 tons (- 200 tons); steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average 47400 tons (+ 0 tons) | | Demand | Hot metal production 2421800 tons (+ 5700 tons) | Hot metal production 2421800 tons (+ 5700 tons) | | Inventory | MS total inventory - 79000 tons; mine - 44400 tons; independent coking + 13200 tons; steel mill coking + 6500 tons; port - 44300 tons; port of entry - 9200 tons | MS total inventory - 13300 tons; independent coking - 2500 tons; steel mill - 6400 tons; port - 4300 tons | | Profit | Commodity coal 289 yuan/ton (- 9 yuan/ton); | Coking enterprises' average profit 9 yuan/ton (- 29 yuan/ton) | | Warehouse Receipt | Xiangning low - sulfur warehouse receipt 800 yuan/ton; Lvliang Shenjiamao 894 yuan/ton; Mongolian No. 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 778 yuan/ton | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1264 yuan/ton | [8] 3.5 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The report provides data on the start - up rate and daily average output of sample coal washing plants, as well as the production of coking raw coal, coking clean coal, coking bituminous coal, and Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at different ports [10][14][16] - **Inventory**: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample coal mines decreased by 37980 tons to 396250 tons, and the clean coal inventory decreased by 47240 tons to 367000 tons. The coking coal port inventory was 285590 tons, with a weekly decrease of 17720 tons. The report also shows the inventory and available days of coking coal in coking plants and steel mills from different perspectives such as regions and production capacities [22][26] 3.6 Coke Fundamental Data - **Supply**: It includes data on the capacity utilization rates of independent coking plants and steel mills, as well as the daily average coke output of independent coking plants and steel mills [37][39][41] - **Inventory**: The report presents the inventory of coke in independent coking plants and steel mills, including data from different regions and the total inventory of all samples [45][46][51] - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises is provided, along with the supply - demand difference between coke supply and demand [53] - **Profit**: Data on coke's on - disk profit, spot profit, and the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises are given [55] 3.7 Coal - Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Coking coal futures**: The trading prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2509 and 2601 futures contracts from June 20 to June 28, 2025, are provided [58] - **Coke futures**: The trading prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coke 2509 and 2601 futures contracts from June 20 to June 28, 2025, are provided [61] - **Coal - coke monthly spread**: The monthly spreads of JM2509 - JM2601 and J2509 - J2601 are presented [64] - **Coal - coke spot**: The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke are provided [65][66] - **Coal - coke basis**: On June 27, the basis of Mongolian coking coal was calculated as the difference between the warehouse receipt price and the main contract price. The basis of coke was calculated as the difference between the main contract price and the warehouse receipt cost [70]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The absolute price of coking coal and coke is hard to say the bottom has appeared, and the relative price of coke has a larger decline space. Affected by market sentiment, coal and coke will still be used as short - position varieties in the black market, treated with a weak and volatile trend. Strategies should focus on narrowing coking profit and 9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1][23] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Last Week's Market Review - **Futures Market**: The opening price of the main coking coal contract JM2509 last week was 877.0 yuan/ton, with a high of 905.0 yuan/ton, a low of 852.0 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 852.5 yuan/ton, a change of - 19.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week's settlement price, with a trading volume of 2,475,262.0 lots and an open interest of 444,587.0 lots. The opening price of the main coke contract J2509 was 1,453.0 yuan/ton, with a high of 1,495.0 yuan/ton, a low of 1,432.0 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 1,445.5 yuan/ton, a change of - 6.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week's settlement price, with a trading volume of 127,728.0 lots and an open interest of 50,533.0 lots [3] - **Basis Analysis**: The basis of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 133 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main coke contract was - 8 yuan/ton [3] - **Spread Analysis**: The spread between the main coke contract 2509 and the main coking coal contract 2509 was 593.0 yuan/ton [3] Domestic Spot - The price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu was 1090 yuan/ton (- 30); S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 1047 yuan/ton (- 6); S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 3) in Shaheyi was 1008 yuan/ton (- 5) [4] Port Inventory and Quotations - As of May 17, 2025, the total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 7.59 million tons; at Caofeidian Port was 5.65 million tons; at Jingtang Port was 8.101 million tons; and at Xingang of Guangzhou Port was 0.453 million tons [10] - The ex - warehouse price of Shanxi main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1400 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of Australian main coking coal at Qingdao Port was 1305 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of Australian main coking coal at Lianyungang was 1305 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of Australian main coking coal at Rizhao Port was 1190 yuan/ton, and the ex - warehouse price of Australian main coking coal at Tianjin Port was 1295 yuan/ton [10] Freight Rate Fluctuations - As of May 16, 2025, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index (CBCFI) was 661.75, the Panamax Freight Index (BPI) was 1290.00, the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) was 2018.00, the Supramax Freight Index (BSI) was 978.00, and the Handysize Freight Index (BHSI) was 472.00 [12] Coking Industry - **Coke Price Index**: The price of quasi - first - grade coke in Lvliang was 1210 yuan/ton (-); in Tangshan was 1410 yuan/ton (-); and at Rizhao Port was 1320 yuan/ton (- 20) [15] - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of 247 steel mills this week was 685.5 tons, and the coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 67.06 tons [17] Technical Analysis - The coking coal JM2509 contract closed down last week, with a lower support level of 800 - 900 yuan/ton and an upper resistance level of 1200 yuan/ton. The coke J2509 contract also closed down last week, with a lower support level of 1300 yuan/ton and an upper resistance level of 1600 yuan/ton [21] Views and Operation Suggestions - **Viewpoint**: The absolute price is hard to say the bottom has appeared, and the relative price of coke has a larger decline space. Affected by market sentiment, coal and coke will still be used as short - position varieties in the black market, treated with a weak and volatile trend [23] - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range trading [24]