Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in coking coal futures indicate a volatile market, with supply tightening and demand showing signs of decline, leading to potential price adjustments in the near future [6] Supply - As of August 28, the average daily coking coal production from independent coking plants was 645,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.9% [3] - The total daily coking coal production from 247 steel mills was 461,000 tons, down by 0.6% week-on-week, resulting in a total production of 1,106,000 tons, which is a 1.6% decrease from the previous week [3] Demand - The average daily pig iron production was 2,401,300 tons as of August 28, reflecting a decrease of 620 tons week-on-week [4] - The blast furnace operating rate was 83.20%, down by 0.16% week-on-week, while the iron-making capacity utilization rate was 90.02%, a decrease of 0.23% [4] - The profitability of steel mills was reported at 63.64%, down by 1.30% week-on-week [4] Inventory - As of August 28, the total coking coal inventory was 9.44 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 15,000 tons [5] - The inventory at independent coking plants was 653,000 tons, up by 9,000 tons week-on-week, while the inventory at 247 steel mills was 6.101 million tons, an increase of 5,000 tons [5] - Port inventory stood at 2.687 million tons, with a slight increase of 1,000 tons week-on-week [5] Price Movements - The main coking coal futures contract closed at 1,596.5, up by 2.0 (+0.13%), while the far-month contract closed at 1,689.0, down by 2.0 (-0.12%) [1] - The seventh round of price increases for coking coal was implemented at 50/55 yuan/ton, with the price for premium coking coal in Shanxi at 1,340 yuan/ton [1][6] - The eighth round of price increases faced resistance, with a steel plant in Ningxia reducing prices [1][6] Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience price adjustments due to improved coking profits and the gradual easing of production restrictions, leading to a potential increase in supply [6] - The steel industry is implementing strategies to control total production, which may negatively impact coal and coking coal demand [6]

煤焦周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 日期：2025年6月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：供应扰动仍存，震荡偏强 ◆ 1、供应：山西供应环比降幅收窄，预计产量有所修复 ➢ 国内方面，近两日山西临汾、长治地区部分因集团其他矿点事故以及安全检查停产的煤矿恢复生产，但供应恢复仍需时间；本周内蒙地区环保检查升级，区域内供 应继续收紧，叠加市场前期持续降价，山东部分企业因煤价低位以及井下等原因生产也有减量，本周煤矿减量依然明显，中国煤炭资源网统计本周样本煤矿原煤产 量周环比减少11.72万吨至1212.01万吨，产能利用率周环比下降0.82%至84.32%。海外方面，本周蒙煤市场成交好转，随着国内市场情绪升温，叠加期货盘面上涨， 期现贸易商拿货积极，另外近日内蒙区域供应下滑明显，部分焦企增加蒙煤采购，整体影响口岸成交明显放量，贸易商继续上调报价，蒙5原煤涨至730-750元/吨左 右。 ◆ 2、需求：厂库小幅提升，高性价比资源成交改善 ➢ 当前虽处消费淡季，但钢厂利润尚 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The absolute price of coking coal and coke is hard to say the bottom has appeared, and the relative price of coke has a larger decline space. Affected by market sentiment, coal and coke will still be used as short - position varieties in the black market, treated with a weak and volatile trend. Strategies should focus on narrowing coking profit and 9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1][23] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Last Week's Market Review - **Futures Market**: The opening price of the main coking coal contract JM2509 last week was 877.0 yuan/ton, with a high of 905.0 yuan/ton, a low of 852.0 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 852.5 yuan/ton, a change of - 19.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week's settlement price, with a trading volume of 2,475,262.0 lots and an open interest of 444,587.0 lots. The opening price of the main coke contract J2509 was 1,453.0 yuan/ton, with a high of 1,495.0 yuan/ton, a low of 1,432.0 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 1,445.5 yuan/ton, a change of - 6.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week's settlement price, with a trading volume of 127,728.0 lots and an open interest of 50,533.0 lots [3] - **Basis Analysis**: The basis of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 133 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main coke contract was - 8 yuan/ton [3] - **Spread Analysis**: The spread between the main coke contract 2509 and the main coking coal contract 2509 was 593.0 yuan/ton [3] Domestic Spot - The price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu was 1090 yuan/ton (- 30); S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 1047 yuan/ton (- 6); S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 3) in Shaheyi was 1008 yuan/ton (- 5) [4] Port Inventory and Quotations - As of May 17, 2025, the total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 7.59 million tons; at Caofeidian Port was 5.65 million tons; at Jingtang Port was 8.101 million tons; and at Xingang of Guangzhou Port was 0.453 million tons [10] - The ex - warehouse price of Shanxi main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1400 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of Australian main coking coal at Qingdao Port was 1305 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of Australian main coking coal at Lianyungang was 1305 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of Australian main coking coal at Rizhao Port was 1190 yuan/ton, and the ex - warehouse price of Australian main coking coal at Tianjin Port was 1295 yuan/ton [10] Freight Rate Fluctuations - As of May 16, 2025, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index (CBCFI) was 661.75, the Panamax Freight Index (BPI) was 1290.00, the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) was 2018.00, the Supramax Freight Index (BSI) was 978.00, and the Handysize Freight Index (BHSI) was 472.00 [12] Coking Industry - **Coke Price Index**: The price of quasi - first - grade coke in Lvliang was 1210 yuan/ton (-); in Tangshan was 1410 yuan/ton (-); and at Rizhao Port was 1320 yuan/ton (- 20) [15] - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of 247 steel mills this week was 685.5 tons, and the coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 67.06 tons [17] Technical Analysis - The coking coal JM2509 contract closed down last week, with a lower support level of 800 - 900 yuan/ton and an upper resistance level of 1200 yuan/ton. The coke J2509 contract also closed down last week, with a lower support level of 1300 yuan/ton and an upper resistance level of 1600 yuan/ton [21] Views and Operation Suggestions - **Viewpoint**: The absolute price is hard to say the bottom has appeared, and the relative price of coke has a larger decline space. Affected by market sentiment, coal and coke will still be used as short - position varieties in the black market, treated with a weak and volatile trend [23] - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range trading [24]