924政策
Search documents
“924”一周年经济回顾与展望:如何重塑增长和提振就业
Lian He Zi Xin· 2025-09-24 11:09
Economic Overview - The "924" policy has shown resilience in the Chinese economy amidst complex domestic and international environments, with macroeconomic policies stabilizing growth and prices[4] - The need to reassess the 5.0% growth target based on economic momentum and to prioritize employment in policy adjustments is emphasized[5] Consumption and Retail - Social retail sales grew by 4.6% year-on-year as of August 2025, a 1.2 percentage point increase from August 2024, aligning with the 5.0% economic growth target[6] - Specific retail categories such as home appliances and communication equipment saw significant growth, with increases of 28.4% and 22.3% respectively compared to the previous year[6] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% year-on-year as of August 2025, a decline of 2.9 percentage points from August 2024, primarily due to a 12.9% drop in real estate investment[9] - Infrastructure and manufacturing investments also saw declines of 2.5 and 4 percentage points respectively, indicating limited effectiveness of investment policies[9] Trade Performance - Total goods import and export volume increased by 2.5% year-on-year as of August 2025, with exports rising by 5.9%, a 1.2 percentage point increase from the previous year[10] - Exports of electromechanical products grew by 9.2%, accounting for 60.2% of total exports, showcasing resilience in external trade[10] Capital Market Stability - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 39% year-on-year to 3821.83 points as of September 23, 2025, while the ChiNext Index surged by 103%[12] - The ten-year government bond yield decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 1.877%, reflecting a stable capital market environment[12] Employment and Structural Challenges - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.18% from January to August 2025, a slight increase from the previous year, indicating challenges in job creation[17] - The youth unemployment rate for ages 16 to 24 rose to 16.43%, highlighting the need for targeted employment strategies[17] Policy Recommendations - Future policies should shift focus from "scale stimulus" to "employment priority" to achieve high-quality economic development[22] - Fiscal policies must prioritize job creation, with proposals for special funds to support new employment initiatives and tax incentives for businesses hiring new employees[27][28]