除了"真金白银"的补贴，广西还为百姓生活添彩。新春消费季期间，"阅山河广西专场"直播带货、中国 （广西）—东盟网上年货节等活动将接连上演，特色好物触手可及；体育赛事、文艺演出好戏连台，既 丰富精神文化生活，也带动餐饮、住宿行业升温。更令人期待的是，广西正积极申报有奖发票试点，未 来消费开票有望额外中奖，让百姓日常购物更多一份惊喜。 本次消费品以旧换新政策覆盖家电、数码等重点品类，明确阶梯式补贴标准，将精准撬动升级类消费需 求。截至1月8日，广西已有柳州、南宁、桂林等6市率先上线2026年家电以旧换新和3C数码购新补贴活 动，累计发放补贴4万份、国补优惠2300万元，直接拉动相关商品销售1.6亿元。1月9日起，全区所有设 区市将全面跟进，家电单件最高补贴1500元、数码产品最高补贴500元的福利，将惠及更多消费者。 本报讯（记者罗颢）2026年1月8日，自治区政府召开一季度经济高质量开局专题部署会，自治区商务厅 抛出系列消费刺激"大礼包"，以旧换新数据亮眼，成为广西民生政策落地见效的生动注脚。 记者从自治区商务厅获悉，2025年1—11月，广西限额以上零售业同比增长8%以上，升级类消费需求持 续释放。限额以上单 ...

大摩闭门会：邢自强、Laura Wang：2026 开年宏观策略谈 260105 摘要 全球地缘政治格局持续演变，美元贬值趋势或将延续，人民币存在对美 元温和升值空间，但需关注对出口和通缩的影响。 中国科技创新实力提升，AI 相关软硬件及国产算力替代加速，先进制造 业升级和出海有望获得国内外投资者认可，利好 A 股和港股 IPO 融资。 刺激消费政策精准落地，一季度国补预计 3,000 亿人民币，主要针对耐 用消费品，若消费和就业不及预期，国补可能扩张至服务业消费券等领 域。 房地产纾困措施或将试点收库存和按揭利率贴息，通过财政或准财政手 段调整按揭利率，初期覆盖部分城市，效果显著可逐步扩大。 财政政策上半年侧重前置发行地方专项债券，重点支持城市更新、地下 管网改造、绿色转型、智能电网储能及 AI 算力基建，中期或追加财政支 出用于科技应用场景服务业消费补贴及房地产纾困。 预计 2025 年中国实际 GDP 增长约为 4.8%，出口维持中高个位数增长， 但名义 GDP 增速或低于实际 GDP 增速，反映民营经济谨慎和 GDP 平 减指数收缩。 美国批准 NVIDIA 向中国出口 H200 芯片，预计 2025 ...

从1月1日起，各地针对汽车、家电等产品的国补新政落地，让元旦假期的消费市场热度显著攀升。 江苏南京："送新收旧" 家电数码产品销量显著上升 广东梅州：基础设施下沉 县域新能源汽车消费升温 在广东梅州，随着2026年新能源汽车国补新政落地实施，叠加车企推出的置换补贴等优惠营销活动，县 域新能源汽车消费市场持续升温。随着当地充电桩等基础设施建设逐步下沉到县乡，新能源汽车正在被 更多消费者认可。 专家表示，新一轮政策在保持政策连续性、稳定性的同时，在精准化方面有了很大的提升，以更好服务 改善民生和生产生活需要。 (责任编辑：朱赫) 在江苏南京，各大家电卖场优化"送新收旧一站式"服务，消费者可直接按补贴后价格结算，拆旧、送 新、安装一步到位。市场数据显示，政策落地首日，主流家电和数码产品销量显著上升，其中一级能效 空调、洗烘一体机以及智能小家电、智能穿戴类产品成为消费热点。 四川绵阳：国补惠民服务直达身边 家门口乐享实惠 在四川，来家电卖场咨询与选购的消费者络绎不绝，许多人表示，趁着假期和新政策实施，准备为家中 电器进行升级。绵阳组织商家走进街道社区，通过"政策补贴+品牌联动+服务创新"模式，把以旧换 新、品质消费和 ...

经济观察网湖北省政府新闻办近日举行发布会，介绍"乐在湖北'马'上有喜"新春消费季活动安排。新春 消费季期间，全省将发放1亿元零售餐饮消费大礼包，覆盖走亲访友、团圆聚餐、新春购物等核心场 景，"即时摇号+到店立减"，买单更划算。 ...

在收入分配方面，余永定认为，中国主要是收入分配不均，中国经济系数虽有所收窄，但仍处于较高水 平。 他指出，"十五五"规划建议提出构建现代化基础设施体系，"十五五"规划19次提及基础设施一词，充分 显示中央对基础设施投资重视。不难看出，为完成中央提出的构建现代化产业体系任务，未来五年中国 投资规模将极其巨大。 余永定还指出，认为中国投资效率低下，投资越多效率越低的说法是片面的。衡量生产效率指标包括劳 动生产率、资本生产率、资本产出率、全要素生产率。中国劳动生产率不断提高，否则人均收入不可能 增长。 余永定强调，刺激消费非常必要，但必须清楚，消费受收入、收入预期、财富、永久性收入影响，这些 不变，消费增加潜力有限。 专题：2025三亚•财经国际论坛 2025三亚•财经国际论坛暨第五届三亚财富管理大会12月27日在三亚举行。中国社会科学院学部委员余 永定出席并演讲。 余永定指出，从长期看，消费不是也不可能是经济增长动力。生产扩大取决于剩余价值向追加资本转 化，即取决于资本扩大，资本扩大按定义就是投资。 余永定指出，从长期看，消费不是也不可能是经济增长动力。生产扩大取决于剩余价值向追加资本转 化，即取决于资本扩大，资 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the recent developments in consumer spending and the government's stance on expanding domestic demand, indicating a potential shift in consumer sentiment [2][3][5] - The article highlights that the government's recent document titled "Expanding Domestic Demand is a Strategic Move" has led to misconceptions that it solely pertains to consumer spending, while it actually encompasses both consumption and investment [3][4] - The government's attitude towards consumption has shown a gradual improvement, as evidenced by the stronger language used in the latest five-year plan compared to previous plans [4][5] Group 2 - Despite the positive signals from the government, actual consumer stimulus measures remain limited, with only minor initiatives like subsidies for trade-ins and childbirth support [6][7] - The primary issue affecting consumer spending is the decline in household wealth due to falling property prices and pessimistic income expectations, which has led to a lack of motivation for consumers to borrow for spending [7][8] - Recent economic data indicates a significant slowdown in consumer spending, with retail sales growth in November at only 1.3%, marking a long-term low, particularly in categories like home appliances and furniture [10][11][12]

Market Analysis - The A-share market continues to show a shrinking rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3888.60 points, up 0.34%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.85% to 12984.08 points, indicating a positive overall market sentiment with 4122 stocks rising and 1187 falling [4][6]. - The market is experiencing a "slow bull" trend, with expectations of policy catalysts and liquidity improvements potentially pushing the market higher in December [8]. Bond Market - The government bond futures market is in a state of fluctuation, with the 30-year contract closing up 0.05% at 114.49 yuan, while the 10-year contract saw a slight increase of 0.03% to 107.940 yuan [11]. - The central bank's liquidity remains ample despite a net withdrawal of funds, with a focus on upcoming economic meetings that may influence fiscal policy and long-term interest rates [11][14]. Commodity Market - The commodity index rose by 0.64%, with the Shanghai silver contract reaching a new high of 12727 yuan per kilogram, driven by a favorable macroeconomic environment and expectations of continued central bank gold purchases [9][11]. - Precious metals are expected to maintain strong performance, with potential upward movement if upcoming economic data is weak or geopolitical risks increase [11][14]. Trading Hotspots - Key sectors include dividend stocks, AI applications, and consumer goods, with a focus on market recovery and potential policy stimuli [13]. - The report highlights a cautious market sentiment with shrinking trading volumes, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies towards more conservative positions [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a GDP growth forecast of 5% for the year and 4.5% for Q4 2025, indicating a stable outlook for the industry [5][8]. Core Insights - China's fiscal spending growth is below expectations, primarily due to strong export growth, which allows for a 5% annual growth target to be achievable. This has led to a tightening of fiscal policy in October, but some policy space is reserved for 2026 to ensure a strong start [5][8]. - The focus of China's economic policy for the coming year will be on stabilizing domestic demand, supporting high-tech manufacturing, and stabilizing the real estate market, with key discussions expected in upcoming political meetings [8][12]. - The labor market shows slight improvement but remains at historical lows, limiting consumer recovery. Consumer confidence has improved slightly, influenced by the stock market, but overall consumer spending remains weak [9][10]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy - In October, fiscal spending growth was lower than market expectations, leading to an unexpected tightening of broad fiscal indicators. However, the report maintains a GDP growth forecast of 5% for the year [5][6]. Consumer Market - October retail sales data showed accelerated growth in categories like cosmetics and jewelry due to the Double Eleven shopping festival, but this is expected to decline in November. Sales of home appliances and automobiles, supported by trade-in subsidies, have lagged behind other categories, indicating that price promotions and temporary subsidies cannot sustain durable goods consumption [6][7]. Labor Market and Consumer Confidence - The labor market remains weak, with historical low employment levels limiting consumer recovery. Consumer confidence showed slight improvement, potentially due to stock market performance, but overall consumer spending is still weak [9][10]. Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) - FAI growth has significantly slowed, dropping to approximately -11% in October. The decline in real estate investment, along with reductions in infrastructure and manufacturing investments, has contributed to this downturn. The report suggests that only 40% of the decline can be attributed to known factors, with the remaining 60% possibly due to statistical adjustments [13][14]. Policy Recommendations - To stimulate household consumption, the report suggests measures such as creating job opportunities, increasing minimum wage standards, and enhancing service consumption supply. Specific policies include subsidies for the service industry and labor-intensive sectors, as well as relaxing restrictions on high-end consumption [12][16]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies 35 policy-supported industries that account for approximately 60% of the total market capitalization of listed companies. These industries are expected to provide better investment returns based on the analysis of the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The core argument presented by Liu Yuanchun is that China's consumption rate is too low due to high forced savings and a low proportion of household income in GDP, necessitating a change in income distribution to stimulate consumption [1][3][14]. Group 1: Current Consumption Issues - China's final consumption rate is approximately 55%, significantly lower than the 80% typical in developed countries [3]. - The proportion of household consumption in GDP is only 39.9%, compared to 50%-55% in Japan, 64.6% in South Korea, and 68% in the United States [3][14]. - Administrative consumption accounts for 30% of total consumption, while private consumption is below 70%, indicating a structural imbalance [3]. Group 2: Income and Consumption Relationship - Low consumption rates imply low income levels, creating a cyclical relationship where low consumption leads to low income and vice versa [4][5]. - To improve consumption, it is essential to first increase income levels, establishing a positive feedback loop where higher income leads to increased consumption [6][7]. Group 3: Factors Affecting Consumption - The decline in consumption growth is not aligned with GDP growth, indicating insufficient overall demand [7]. - Uncertainty in the economic environment is a significant factor affecting consumption, alongside income issues [8][10]. Group 4: Long-term Solutions - Liu Yuanchun emphasizes the need for a more equitable income distribution to enhance household consumption, as the current distribution favors enterprises and administrative sectors [14][15]. - The household sector's share of national income is only 60.6%, which is 5.5 percentage points lower than the global average, while the enterprise sector's share is disproportionately high at 24.7% [14][16]. Group 5: Short-term Consumption Challenges - Liu identifies seven short-term challenges for consumption, including worsening consumption insufficiency, low consumer confidence, and a decline in household asset values [18]. - The estimated short-term consumption gap is around 6%, amounting to approximately 2.9 trillion yuan, with potential stimulus measures like trade-in subsidies capable of generating about 2 trillion yuan in consumption [18].

Core Viewpoint - The response from the Shandong Lanling County Business Bureau addresses a proposal from political advisors to encourage public servants' consumption to stimulate economic growth, outlining measures to enhance disposable income, shift consumption attitudes, ensure social equity, and address policy limitations [1][4][5]. Group 1: Income and Consumption Attitudes - The Business Bureau plans to explore a wage growth mechanism that aligns with economic development, considering performance and regional differences to gradually increase public servants' disposable income [4]. - To change conservative consumption attitudes among public servants, the Bureau will implement consumption education and create practical consumption scenarios through cultural and tourism activities [4]. Group 2: Social Equity - The Bureau emphasizes fairness in consumption stimulus policies, avoiding special treatment for public servants, and aims for policies that benefit a broader population, including farmers and low-income groups [4]. Group 3: Policy Limitations and Economic Recovery - The Bureau has developed the "Implementation Plan for Boosting Consumption" tailored to local conditions, focusing on key sectors such as culture, tourism, and e-commerce, while also addressing housing and healthcare [5]. - The county's economic indicators show a mixed performance, with a GDP of 37.25 billion yuan in 2024, a 3% increase year-on-year, and a retail sales total of 15.95 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.5% growth [7].