A股下半年走势

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券商研判A股“下半场”:继续看好科技和新消费
第一财经· 2025-06-20 02:03
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a "first stabilize, then rise" trend in the second half of 2025, driven by internal economic recovery and supportive fiscal policies [4][5]. Market Performance Overview - The A-share market faced volatility at the beginning of the year, with major indices dropping over 2% before stabilizing in February due to the influence of AI-related investments [3]. - By March, the market was buoyed by favorable policies and signals from the central bank, leading to the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3400 points [3]. Predictions for the Second Half - Leading brokerages predict that the A-share market will see a gradual upward trend, supported by improved global fundamentals and domestic policy implementation [4][5]. - The market is expected to shift from small-cap stocks to core assets, indicating a significant change in investment style [12]. Investment Themes - Emerging sectors such as AI and new consumption are anticipated to perform well, with a focus on innovative technologies and consumer goods [10][11]. - Specific investment opportunities include new consumption categories like beauty products and pet food, as well as advancements in robotics and AI applications [11]. Strategic Recommendations - Analysts suggest a focus on five key themes: mergers and acquisitions, artificial intelligence, undervalued quality stocks, refined consumption, and counter-cyclical policy support [13]. - The recommendation includes increasing exposure to Hong Kong stocks and core assets while considering long-term trends unaffected by trade tensions [12].