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A股延续弱反弹格局,下半年行情券商怎么看?丨智氪
36氪· 2025-06-08 09:16
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound driven by multiple positive factors, with expectations for continued upward movement in the near future, particularly in the technology sector as significant events approach [5][6][12]. Market Performance - The A-share market showed a weak rebound with major indices attempting to reach the 3400-point mark, but ultimately faced challenges due to low trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3385.36 points, up 1.13%, while the ChiNext Index rose 2.32% to 2039.44 points [3][4]. - Among the 31 first-level industries, 25 saw gains, with notable performances in telecommunications (5.27%), non-ferrous metals (3.74%), and electronics (3.6%). Conversely, household appliances (-1.79%) and food and beverage (-1.06%) lagged behind [3]. Trading Volume and Financing - The average daily trading volume remained around 1.1 trillion yuan, indicating intense market competition. The margin trading balance stabilized at levels seen since April [4]. Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 49.5%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a continued economic recovery despite remaining in contraction territory. The non-manufacturing PMI was slightly lower at 50.3% [7]. - The production index rose to 50.7%, reflecting an acceleration in manufacturing activities, while the new orders index increased to 49.8%, driven by a significant recovery in new export orders [8]. Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China announced a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, marking a significant liquidity management move. This operation is expected to stabilize interbank market rates and enhance market risk appetite, particularly benefiting technology growth stocks [9]. Geopolitical Developments - A recent phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump emphasized economic cooperation, which is expected to ease market concerns regarding tariffs and improve risk sentiment [10]. Future Market Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about the A-share market for the second half of 2025, anticipating a structural bull market driven by synchronized economic and policy cycles in China and the U.S. [12][13]. - Key investment strategies include focusing on core assets, emerging industries, and traditional sector leaders, with a particular emphasis on technology and consumer sectors [15][17]. Sector Focus - Investment opportunities are expected to arise from trends in technology, defense, and domestic consumption, with specific attention to sectors like AI, renewable energy, and consumer goods [17][19].