以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 一、A股政策预期保持稳定的三个条件：1. 增量政策布局的保留空间。2. 存量政策加速落地执行。3. 政府债券发行加速，为三季度稳增长储备资 源。4月政治局会议存量政策"用好用足"，增量政策"备足预案"，资本市场"稳定"基础上还要"活跃"，全面覆盖市场期待。政策关键验证期，A 股预期将保持稳定。 此前，我们讨论了二季度A股政策预期保持基本稳定的三个必要条件：1. 对股价而言，后续政策空间比已落地的政策更加重要，保留增量政策布 局的空间是市场预期稳定的首要条件。2. 存量政策加速落地，特别是消费增量刺激，以及重点项目要落实到基建产业链中微观改善上。3. 三季度 稳增长压力可能大于二季度，同时从政府债券发行到落实实物量有一定滞后。所以，市场期待二季度专项债和特别国债发行放量，为三季度稳增 长进一步发力做好准备。 4月25日政治局会议召开，政策布局基本覆盖了上述三个条件，全面契合市场期待。政策关键验证期，A股预期能够保持基本稳定。这里我们具 体讨论5个政策要点： 1. 存量政策"用好用足"。 针对关税冲击压力，会议强调"加紧实施 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the A-share market's policy expectations remain stable due to three conditions: retention of incremental policy space, acceleration of existing policy implementation, and increased issuance of government bonds to prepare resources for steady growth in the third quarter [6][7][8] - The Politburo meeting on April 25 aligns with market expectations, focusing on five key policy points: effective use of existing policies, preparation of incremental policy plans, support for export and foreign trade enterprises, commitment to opening up, and new tools for stimulating consumption [6][7][8] - The report indicates that the execution of the U.S. tariff policy has deviated significantly from the expectations outlined in Stephen Milan's "Guide to Reconstructing the Global Trade System," suggesting that the adjustment of Trump's policies may be slow and gradual, which could put pressure on U.S. stocks and limit the recovery of risk appetite in the A-share market [8][10][11] Group 2 - The report notes a gradual change in the core characteristics of the A-share market, with a decrease in the urgency for policy hedging and an increase in market self-pricing power, leading to a decline in the thematic attributes of hedging and counteracting assets [11][12] - The mid-term outlook is shifting back towards a "structural bull market," with the second quarter being a period of adjustment for structural bulls, as the A-share market digests fundamental pressures [14] - The report highlights that high-dividend investments are refocusing on Hong Kong stocks, indicating a shift in investment strategies as the market's self-pricing power increases [12][14]