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A股牛市10大规律,本轮到哪了?
华尔街见闻· 2025-08-11 09:51
Group 1: Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high for the year, with over 4,200 stocks rising and more than 100 stocks increasing by over 9% [2] - The report from Guohai Securities outlines ten rules of the bull market, analyzing the current situation from macro, style, and industry perspectives [3] Group 2: Bull Market Rules - Rule 1: The high points of the CSI 300 index are generally consistent, expected to reach the range of 5,300-5,800 points [5] - Rule 2: Major bull markets often occur around the transition of five-year plans, with 2025-2026 potentially being a significant upward phase if historical patterns repeat [10][13] - Rule 3: The level of equity risk premium indicates potential valuation uplift, with estimates suggesting at least 60% upside for the entire A-share index [14][16] - Rule 4: The threshold for dividend yield historically reaches around 1.5%, with current yields suggesting an 85% upside if normalized [17][19] - Rule 5: Valuation phases indicate that the market has not yet peaked, with a potential 19% space remaining for the overall A-share index [21][24] - Rule 6: The timing of performance confirmation shows that the return on equity (ROE) inflection point has not yet been confirmed, indicating a valuation-driven market phase [25][27] Group 3: Investment Styles - Rule 7: Advanced manufacturing and growth technology are typically leading styles in bull markets, but current growth rates are significantly lower than previous bull markets [28][30] - Rule 8: Mid-cap stocks tend to rise during bull markets, with current growth rates for mid-cap growth and value stocks remaining below 25% [31][33] - Rule 9: The return of fund-heavy styles is expected as high-growth investments regain traction after a period of decline [34][37] Group 4: Leading Industries - Rule 10: Historically, leading industries in bull markets include military, power equipment, machinery, and non-ferrous metals, with current performance in power equipment and other sectors lagging behind historical averages [40][41]