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战略数据研究|专题报告:红利择时看反弹的节奏和结构:AH红利资产的定价模式探索系列(III)
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-19 14:45
Group 1: Market Trends and Conditions - The core drivers of the relative strength between dividend and growth styles are based on long-term expectations of asset fundamentals and short-term liquidity/macroeconomic credit environment changes[2] - Recent developments, including the conclusion of the US-China tariff negotiations and the release of Q3 earnings reports, have led to a correction in short-term risk preferences, transitioning into a medium to long-term economic outlook phase[6] - The current market environment shows a shift from growth towards a balanced dividend allocation due to changes in short-term market risk appetite and fund flow[22] Group 2: Performance and Investment Opportunities - As of November 14, 2025, a total of 845 A-share companies announced mid-term dividends, a significant increase from 704 in the previous year, indicating a growing trend in dividend distribution[51] - The total mid-term dividend amount for A-shares in 2025 is approximately CNY 6,846 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of nearly CNY 1,000 billion[54] - The performance of dividend indices has shown significant returns, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Index up 41.28% year-to-date, while growth indices like the ChiNext Index have seen a 45.29% increase[21] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - The analysis is based on historical data and does not guarantee future performance, highlighting the inherent risks in investment strategies[67] - The uncertainty surrounding dividend distributions remains, as the reported mid-term dividend figures may differ from actual payouts, introducing additional risk factors[68]