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百度集团-SW(09888):全栈AI,云+芯+robotaxi重估(百度深度之三)
Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Baidu Group to "Buy" [2][6] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that Baidu is advancing its AI full-stack construction, with significant growth in its intelligent cloud business, driven by the release of new AI models and chips [5][25] - Baidu's self-developed Kunlun chips are expected to enter a phase of mass production, enhancing its competitive edge in AI computing [5][45] - The Robotaxi business is experiencing substantial growth, with improved profitability and a comprehensive technology system in place [5][58] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for Baidu Group from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 1285 billion, 1331 billion, and 1410 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of -3%, 4%, and 6% [4][7] - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to be 176 billion, 203 billion, and 220 billion RMB for the same period, reflecting a decline in 2025 followed by recovery [4][7] - The adjusted earnings per share are expected to be 6.31, 7.27, and 7.87 RMB from 2025 to 2027 [4] Intelligent Cloud Business - Baidu's intelligent cloud revenue reached 62 billion RMB in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 31%, accounting for 37% of Baidu's core revenue [5][32] - The AI cloud infrastructure revenue grew by 33%, while the subscription revenue for AI accelerators surged by 128% [5][28] - Baidu's market share in the AI large model solution market is leading at 16.6%, with strong growth in its AI cloud services [5][37] Kunlun Chip Development - The Kunlun chip series has undergone significant development, with the third generation expected to meet the demands of large-scale AI models [5][45] - The Kunlun chips have been successfully integrated into various industries, including finance and energy, demonstrating their commercial viability [5][53] Robotaxi Business - The Robotaxi platform, "LuoBo Kuaipao," has seen a significant increase in order volume, with over 310 million orders in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 200% [5][58] - The business has achieved profitability at the unit level, indicating a successful transition from technology validation to sustainable commercialization [5][58]