证券研究报告 | 2026年03月02日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-02-27 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4162.88 | 14495.09 | 4710.64 | 15892.13 | 4230.77 | 1488.02 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.39 | -0.05 | -0.34 | 0.34 | -0.17 | 0.14 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 10723.67 | 14156.55 | 5788.20 | 4842.04 | 6627.58 | 783.94 | $$\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ 【重点推荐】 宏观与策略 策略专题:两会前后市场如何演绎？ 总量专题（首席经济学家团队）:总量专题研究-从居民资配变迁看资金 入市 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 宏观周报:多资产周报-"暴走 ...

百度 20260226 摘要 百度 ERNIE 模型迭代坚持应用驱动，通过应用场景牵引，不断优化并规 模化落地，最新版本 ERNIE 5.0 发布并配套组织架构调整，旨在保持研 发与落地的敏捷性，模型团队重组为专注基础模型和业务应用的两个团 队。 2025 年百度智能云 AI 云业务收入达 300 亿元，同比增长 34%，跑赢 市场。AI 加速器基础设施订阅收入 Q4 同比增长 143%，成为主要增长 动力。全栈端到端架构和自研昆仑 X AI 芯片构成差异化优势，已在多个 行业头部企业大规模部署。 AI 驱动业务营收占比快速提升，Q4 占比达 43%，成为营收增长核心动 力。增长来自企业 AI 规模化生产、全栈 AI 能力支持、AI 应用组合扩张、 Apollo Go 规模化及国际拓展、AI 原生营销服务提升等多个方面。 百度推出新的 50 亿美元股票回购计划和首个股息政策，旨在为股东创 造价值。同时，Quanching 分拆及独立上市也在推进中，预期将获得市 场认可，为百度释放显著价值。 Apollo Go 已在全球累计完成超 2000 万次出行，完全无人化里程超 1.9 亿公里，安全记录卓越。国际扩张覆盖 ...

转自：经济日报新闻客户端 AI原生营销服务方面，2025全年收入同比增长301%。2025年12月，百度App月活用户数达6.79亿，文心 助手月活用户数达2.02亿。春节红包活动启动以来，文心助手月活跃用户同比增长4倍。2025年，慧播 星数字人开播规模同比增长202%，收入同比增长228%，已赋能30多个行业。 AI应用2025全年收入突破100亿元。据IDC《中国无代码生成式应用开发平台实测报告》，无代码生成 平台秒哒在平台功能和应用质量方面，表现出行业领先的性能。季度内，全球首个自我演化超级智能体 百度伐谋已获得超2000家企业申请试用，并发布"同舟生态伙伴计划"。近期，百度文库、百度网盘整合 成为个人超级智能事业群（PSIG），进一步加快AI应用创新。 同时，萝卜快跑四季度全球无人驾驶出行服务次数达340万，同比增长超200%，季度内每周出行次数峰 值超30万。财报显示，萝卜快跑加速其向全球多个市场的扩张。截至2026年2月，萝卜快跑累计提供全 球出行服务次数超2000万，足迹已覆盖全球26个城市。目前，萝卜快跑自动驾驶总里程累计超3亿公 里，全无人驾驶里程超1.9亿公里。 近期，文心5.0正式版上 ...

而今年，李彦宏如此定义百度的AI转型："2025年是AI成为百度新核心的关键一年。AI云势头强劲，我们凭借差异化的全栈端到端AI能力赢得越来越多的企 业认可。"他还提到，百度以AI为先的战略日益清晰。 在AI业务上"起大早赶晚集"的百度正在加速快跑。 （图源：视觉中国） 2月26日，百度（09888.HK；BIDU.O）发布《2025年第四季度及全年业绩公告》（以下简称"《业绩公告》"）。 在2024年年报中，百度创始人李彦宏曾表示，2024年是百度从以互联网为中心向以AI为先转型的关键一年。 "自本季度起，我们将百度核心重新定义为百度一般性业务。"百度在《业绩公告》中表示，百度一般性业务包括百度核心AI新业务、传统业务及其他。 传统业务指的是搜索、信息流及其他产品线提供的传统广告服务；核心AI新业务则包括智能云基础设施业务、AI应用业务和AI原生营销服务。 财报显示，2025年第四季度，百度总收入为人民币327亿元，环比增长5%，主要是由于百度核心AI新业务的增长。 百度AI业务、传统业务及其他的收入分别为113亿元、123亿元及25亿元。不难发现，AI业务在百度一般性业务收入中的占比，达到43%。 而20 ...

2月26日，百度发布2025年第四季度及全年财报，显示2025年总营收达1291亿元，AI业务营收 达400亿元；四季度，百度总营收327亿元，同比增长5%，AI业务收入占百度一般性业务收入的 43%，超出市场预期。 财报发布后，百度董事长兼CEO李彦宏，移动生态事业群总裁罗戎，智能云事业群总裁沈抖， CFO何海建等高管出席随后召开的财报电话会议，解读财报要点并回答分析师提问。 沈抖：感谢提问。2025年，百度智能云（含基础设施和应用业务）营收达300亿元人民币，其中 智能云基础设施营收同比增长34%，跑赢行业大盘；第四季度，人工智能加速器基础设施订阅式 营收同比增长143%，成为核心增长引擎，发展势头强劲。 我们对2026年保持强劲增长充满信心，核心驱动力是企业人工智能落地的进程持续加快。目前， 训练和推理环节的需求均在增长，我们预计人工智能计算需求将持续扩大。百度的全栈式端到端 人工智能架构是把握这一机遇的核心优势，而这一架构的基础，是我们行业领先的人工智能基础 设施，在性能、效率和成本之间实现了绝佳平衡。 我们的人工智能基础设施融合了各类芯片，在异构计算和统一调度方面积累了深厚的技术经验， 能高效管理不 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - Baidu reported total revenue of 129.1 billion yuan for 2025, with AI business revenue reaching 40 billion yuan [1] - In Q4 2025, Baidu's total revenue was 32.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5%, with AI business revenue accounting for 43% of Baidu's general business revenue, exceeding market expectations [1][2] Group 2: AI Business Strategy - Baidu's CEO emphasized that application is more important than the model itself, stating that the value of models is realized through applications, which drives the upgrades of the Wenxin model [3] - The company has restructured its R&D teams to focus on both foundational model capabilities and specific business needs, aiming to enhance efficiency and effectiveness in AI applications [4] Group 3: Cloud Business Growth - Baidu's intelligent cloud revenue reached 30 billion yuan in 2025, with a 34% year-on-year growth in infrastructure revenue, outperforming the industry average [5] - The AI accelerator infrastructure subscription revenue grew by 143% year-on-year in Q4, becoming a key growth driver for the cloud business [5] Group 4: AI Business Segments - Baidu's AI business revenue exceeded 11 billion yuan in Q4, accounting for 43% of the company's main business revenue, indicating a rapid increase in this segment's contribution [7] - The AI business includes intelligent cloud infrastructure, AI applications, autonomous driving services, and digital marketing services, all of which are strategically positioned to create value for customers [7][8] Group 5: Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns - The company announced a new stock buyback plan of 5 billion USD and introduced a dividend policy to enhance shareholder returns [10] - Baidu is preparing for the spin-off of Kunlun Chip, which is a core component of its AI infrastructure, aiming to unlock significant value for the company [10] Group 6: Autonomous Driving Strategy - Baidu's Apollo Go service has completed over 20 million rides, with a leading safety record and a global expansion strategy covering 26 cities [11] - The company aims to leverage partnerships with firms like Uber to accelerate its global market presence in autonomous driving [12] Group 7: AI Product Development - Baidu's flagship C-end product, Wenxin Yiyan, has surpassed 200 million monthly active users, with significant improvements in user interaction and service capabilities [14][15] - The company is focused on enhancing product quality and user experience, believing that commercialization will follow as products mature [15] Group 8: Investment in AI - Baidu has invested over 10 billion yuan in AI since March 2023 and plans to maintain this investment level while ensuring positive cash flow [16] - The company is exploring diverse financing options to support its AI investments while maintaining a healthy financial structure [16]

Core Viewpoint - The global capital market's investment logic in the AI industry has shifted significantly as of 2026, moving from a "storytelling" phase to a "practical verification" phase, with a focus on tangible profitability rather than just high capital expenditures [1][2] Group 1: Baidu's Financial Performance - Baidu's Q4 and full-year 2025 financial report has become a focal point for the market, showcasing its AI commercialization capabilities and serving as a key window to observe the efficiency of leading AI companies in transitioning from technical value to commercial value [1][2] - Baidu reported a total revenue of 129.1 billion yuan for 2025, with AI business revenue reaching 40 billion yuan, and AI revenue accounting for 43% of its general business revenue in Q4, exceeding market expectations [1][2] Group 2: AI Business Model and Growth - The significant AI revenue share indicates that Baidu's "technology-business" closed loop has been initially validated, marking a transition from a "cost investment phase" to a sustainable "revenue realization phase" [2][3] - Baidu's AI growth is not reliant on short-term traffic or subsidies but is driven by actual payments from enterprises and users for real value, reflecting the health of its AI business model and internal growth momentum [2][3] Group 3: Strategic Positioning and Competitive Advantage - Baidu's success in AI commercialization is attributed to its differentiated and systematic development path, with a full-stack self-research layout across "chip-cloud-model-intelligent body," achieving significant synergy effects [3][4] - The company has chosen a pragmatic development path focused on the large-scale application of AI technology and deep industry integration, positioning itself as a leader in AI commercialization in China [4][5] Group 4: Business Growth and Market Position - Baidu's AI cloud revenue grew by 34% year-on-year in 2025, with Q4 AI high-performance computing subscription revenue increasing by 143% [6] - The user base for Baidu's AI applications has expanded significantly, with the Wenxin Assistant surpassing 200 million monthly active users, indicating strong market recognition [6][7] Group 5: Global Expansion and Future Prospects - Baidu's Robotaxi service, "萝卜快跑," achieved over 3.4 million global ride services in Q4 2025, reflecting a growth of over 200% year-on-year, with plans for expansion in international markets [8][9] - The global Robotaxi market is projected to grow from $290 million in 2025 to $35.26 billion by 2035, positioning Baidu to benefit significantly from this growth [8][9] Group 6: Valuation and Market Recognition - Baidu's recent actions, including a $5 billion share buyback plan and the announcement of its first dividend, signal a commitment to shareholder value and a new phase of profitability [10][11] - Analysts have raised Baidu's target stock price, with Benchmark setting it at $215 and Morgan Stanley at $200, reflecting confidence in Baidu's position as a core beneficiary of the AI infrastructure wave [12][13]

Core Insights - The global capital market's investment logic in the AI industry has shifted significantly as of 2026, moving from a "storytelling" phase to a "practical verification" phase, with investors now focused on tangible returns rather than just potential [1][2] - Baidu's Q4 and full-year 2025 financial report has become a focal point for the market, showcasing its AI commercialization capabilities and serving as a key indicator of the efficiency in converting technological value into commercial value for leading AI firms globally [1][2] Financial Performance - Baidu reported a total revenue of 129.1 billion yuan for 2025, with AI business revenue reaching 40 billion yuan, marking a significant milestone in its AI commercialization journey [1] - In Q4 2025, Baidu's total revenue was 32.7 billion yuan, with AI business revenue accounting for 43% of its general business revenue, exceeding market expectations [1][2] AI Commercialization Progress - The unexpected revenue share from AI indicates that Baidu's "technology-business" closed loop has been initially validated, transitioning from a cost investment phase to a sustainable revenue realization phase [2] - Baidu's AI revenue is derived from actual user payments for value delivered, reflecting a healthy business model and intrinsic growth momentum [2] Strategic Positioning - Baidu's success in AI commercialization is attributed to its differentiated and systematic development path, focusing on deep integration of technology and industry rather than merely competing on model parameters [3][4] - The company has established a full-stack self-research layout across "chip-cloud-model-intelligent body," achieving significant advantages in performance, cost, and iteration speed [3] Business Growth and Market Position - Baidu's AI cloud revenue grew by 34% year-on-year in 2025, with Q4 subscription revenue for high-performance computing facilities increasing by 143% [6] - The AI applications generated over 10 billion yuan in revenue in 2025, with the active user base for its Wenxin Assistant surpassing 200 million [6][7] Global Expansion and Innovation - Baidu's Robotaxi service, "LuoBo Kuaipao," achieved over 3.4 million service instances in Q4 2025, reflecting a growth of over 200% year-on-year [8] - The company has initiated public commercial operations for fully autonomous driving in Abu Dhabi and plans to expand its fleet significantly in Dubai [8] Valuation and Market Recognition - Baidu's recent share buyback plan of up to 5 billion USD, representing about 10% of its market value, signals a strong commitment to shareholder value and reflects the company's belief in its undervalued status [11][12] - Analysts have raised Baidu's target stock price to over 200 USD, recognizing the potential for significant value release through its AI commercialization and strategic initiatives [10][13]

叠加回购与派息计划所释放的现金流信号，这家坚持长期技术主义的科技公司，正加速进入以商业化能力为核心的兑现阶段。 技术投入走向商业回报 过去，资本市场更习惯于从研发投入强度、模型参数规模、算力储备等维度来衡量一家科技公司的实力。如今，百度超过43%的AI收入，则将这些技术能 力转化为可被持续跟踪、持续验证的经营成果。 2月26日，百度发布2025年第四季度及全年财报。 财报显示，2025年百度总营收达1291亿元，AI业务营收达400亿元；四季度，百度总营收327亿元，AI业务收入占百度一般性业务收入的43%，超出市场预 期。 当资本市场仍在以参数规模与算力储备衡量大模型公司的技术高度时，百度给出了一组更具经营含义的数据：AI相关收入占比已超过43%。这一比例的意 义，不只是业务增长的阶段性成果，更标志着百度收入结构正在发生实质性重构，AI从底层赋能工具，转变为可持续创造现金流的核心引擎。 AI业务收入占比的披露，对于百度而言，也意味着其对自身业务结构的重构已经完成关键一步。这一变化的本质在于，AI成为直接创造增量收入的核心 引擎。企业客户为算力与模型能力付费，个人用户为效率提升与生产力工具买单，无人驾驶以真实 ...

格隆汇2月26日｜百度高管：在第四季度，随着头部企业客户与公司深化合作，百度智能云业务的使用 量和支出均有所增长。第四季度，人工智能云业务得益于中端客户群体的健康增长。 ...