Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in non-ferrous metal prices, including gold, copper, and silver, is driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics, indicating a potential "super cycle" rather than a temporary market reaction [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The current bull market in non-ferrous metals is rooted in a long-term reassessment of the global monetary system and the credit of the US dollar, with a weakening dollar contributing to the strong performance of these metals as a hedge against currency devaluation [1][2]. - Analysts believe that the ongoing monetary expansion and the trend towards a weaker dollar, along with the initiation of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, will continue to boost precious metal prices, particularly gold [1][2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - Supply-side constraints are expected to tighten over the long term due to declining ore grades, which require more mining to obtain the same amount of metal, leading to increased marginal costs [3][4]. - There is insufficient capital expenditure in the mining sector, as the declining returns from mining operations deter large-scale investments despite rising commodity prices [4][5]. - The number of high-quality mines is decreasing, and countries are using administrative measures to enhance the value of their resources, indicating that resource commodities are transitioning from cyclical products to strategic assets [5][6]. Group 3: Demand Drivers - A new demand engine centered around AI and renewable energy is emerging, significantly increasing the demand for copper and other metals [6][7]. - The shift in demand dynamics is evident as the share of renewable energy industries in the demand for traditional cyclical metals like copper and aluminum has risen substantially [7][8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The recent price volatility in major non-ferrous metals, such as copper reaching $11,000 per ton before a significant drop, reflects market skepticism about the sustainability of high commodity prices [8][9]. - Analysts suggest that if the consensus shifts to view the current high prices as a long-term trend rather than a cyclical fluctuation, the sector could experience a "Davis double play," where both earnings and valuations rise [8][9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Non-ferrous metals are expected to be the mainstay of the current commodity bull market, driven by long-term supply constraints and increasing demand from manufacturing and strategic resource needs [9]. - The outlook for the next one to two years remains positive for industrial metals, small metals, and gold, although potential risks from tariffs and economic data deterioration in the US need to be monitored [9].