国际金价站上历史之巅，伦铜价格强势叩响万元大关，白银则以惊人的弹性展开补涨……近期，一场 关于有色金属的"热浪"正在席卷全球。 资本市场对此反应热烈，Wind数据显示，有色金属相关ETF成为近期资金追捧的焦点，仅在近一个月便获 得超200亿元的资金净流入，紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、兴业银锡等板块内龙头个股的股价更是屡创新高。 这究竟是一场由短期情绪驱动的"周期狂欢"，还是一轮由底层逻辑重构引爆的"超级周期"？为此，券商中 国记者采访了多位公募基金经理，力图解码本轮有色金属强势行情背后的深层逻辑与未来图景。 "美元锚"松动重塑有色金属定价 与以往由单一经济复苏驱动的周期性行情不同，受访基金经理普遍认为，本轮有色金属牛市的根基，深植 于一个更为宏大的宏观背景——全球货币体系与美元信用的长期重估。 汇添富指数分析师狄则徐及有色50ETF（159652）基金经理孙浩指出，本轮行情的中长期逻辑根植于有 色金属的货币属性。他们认为："美国财政与货币纪律的双重松动趋势已定，美元信用的边际贬损是驱动 有色金属长期强势表现的底层宏观逻辑。在此背景下，商品本身就是对抗货币贬值的硬通货。" 这一观点得到了多位业内人士的认同。万家基金权益 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in prices of precious and non-ferrous metals is driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply constraints, and new demand from sectors like AI and renewable energy [2][4][9]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The current bull market in non-ferrous metals is rooted in a long-term reassessment of the global monetary system and the credit of the US dollar, with a weakening dollar driving demand for metals as a hedge against currency devaluation [4][5]. - The price of gold, which recently surpassed $4000 per ounce, is seen as a leading indicator for other metals, with copper and silver also experiencing significant price increases [5][11]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - The supply side is facing long-term constraints due to declining ore grades and high costs of new capacity, which require optimistic price expectations to stimulate investment [7][8]. - There is a notable reduction in high-quality mines and an increasing strategic value of resource commodities, as countries implement measures to enhance resource value [8]. Group 3: New Demand Drivers - The demand for non-ferrous metals is being significantly boosted by AI and renewable energy sectors, with AI-related infrastructure and electric grid upgrades driving copper demand [9]. - The share of demand from the renewable energy sector in traditional cyclical industries is expected to grow, with projections indicating that it could account for over 20% of demand for metals like aluminum and copper [9][12]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The recent volatility in metal prices reflects market skepticism about the sustainability of high prices, but there is potential for a "Davis Double Play" where earnings and valuations could rise simultaneously if high prices are accepted as a new norm [11][12]. - The overall outlook for non-ferrous metals remains positive, with expectations of sustained high demand and supply constraints leading to a "slow bull" market over the next one to two years [12].

（原标题：金价再创历史新高！黄金股ETF、黄金ETF、金ETF大涨） 国信证券称，黄金作为非关联性资产，能够有效增强组合韧性，在当今全球高债务、低实际利率和地缘不确定性的环境中，其战略配置价值尤为 突出。在长债利率低迷、票息保护不足的情形下，资产配置经历从债券打底的"固收+"到"黄金+"的范式变迁。黄金市场中长期继续维持乐观看 法，目前尚难言顶。在2023下半年开始持续推荐黄金配置机会，第一配置原则是乌克兰危机爆发后全球避险资产不足，标志是美欧在对俄乌资产 的处置上有悖安全资产常识；第二配置原则是市场认为美联储公信力不足，导火索是特朗普施压叠加2025年9月联储"窝囊降息"，前两个原则本质 都是美元信用重估下黄金价值提升，至于利率、消费等都是边缘定价因素。黄金第三浪的机会可能触发在海外人工智能科技浪潮筑顶带来的资金 再分流，目前看并无征兆。2003-2004年、2006-2007年美国科技股和黄金同涨，再到科技浪潮中止符、黄金超涨都是相同逻辑，避险情绪从地缘 端扩散到资金流，目前尚未触发第三阶段信号。 相关ETF ● 黄金股ETF (产品代码：159562) 国际金价续涨，现货黄金升至4070美元/盎司，再创 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in non-ferrous metal prices, including gold, copper, and silver, is driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics, indicating a potential "super cycle" rather than a temporary market reaction [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The current bull market in non-ferrous metals is rooted in a long-term reassessment of the global monetary system and the credit of the US dollar, with a weakening dollar contributing to the strong performance of these metals as a hedge against currency devaluation [1][2]. - Analysts believe that the ongoing monetary expansion and the trend towards a weaker dollar, along with the initiation of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, will continue to boost precious metal prices, particularly gold [1][2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - Supply-side constraints are expected to tighten over the long term due to declining ore grades, which require more mining to obtain the same amount of metal, leading to increased marginal costs [3][4]. - There is insufficient capital expenditure in the mining sector, as the declining returns from mining operations deter large-scale investments despite rising commodity prices [4][5]. - The number of high-quality mines is decreasing, and countries are using administrative measures to enhance the value of their resources, indicating that resource commodities are transitioning from cyclical products to strategic assets [5][6]. Group 3: Demand Drivers - A new demand engine centered around AI and renewable energy is emerging, significantly increasing the demand for copper and other metals [6][7]. - The shift in demand dynamics is evident as the share of renewable energy industries in the demand for traditional cyclical metals like copper and aluminum has risen substantially [7][8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The recent price volatility in major non-ferrous metals, such as copper reaching $11,000 per ton before a significant drop, reflects market skepticism about the sustainability of high commodity prices [8][9]. - Analysts suggest that if the consensus shifts to view the current high prices as a long-term trend rather than a cyclical fluctuation, the sector could experience a "Davis double play," where both earnings and valuations rise [8][9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Non-ferrous metals are expected to be the mainstay of the current commodity bull market, driven by long-term supply constraints and increasing demand from manufacturing and strategic resource needs [9]. - The outlook for the next one to two years remains positive for industrial metals, small metals, and gold, although potential risks from tariffs and economic data deterioration in the US need to be monitored [9].

智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，黄金第三浪的机会可能触发在海外人工智能科技浪潮筑顶带 来的资金再分流，目前看并无征兆。2003-2004年、2006-2007年美国科技股和黄金同涨，再到科技浪潮 中止符、黄金超涨都是相同逻辑，避险情绪从地缘端扩散到资金流，目前尚未触发第三阶段信号。伴随 美国三大股指下跌，避险情绪驱动黄金价格继续上涨，仍看好黄金中长期价格走势，居民资产配置中黄 金的比例在2-10%间较适宜，机构配置盘比例则可适当提升。 国信证券主要观点如下： 黄金在资产配置中扮演着重要的多元化与风险对冲角色，踏空追涨和配置比例是市场关心话题 关于黄金的最佳配置比例，瑞·达利欧(Ray Dalio)最近认为合理比例是15%，当前高通胀、高政府债务的 经济环境与1970年代相似。在此背景下，持有现金和债券并非有效的财富储存手段，而黄金是独立于信 用体系的避险资产，能在货币贬值和地缘政治不确定时期发挥对冲作用。杰弗里·冈拉克(Jeffrey Gundlach)则认为比例可高达25%。基于对美元走弱和通胀压力持续的判断。他将黄金视作一份保险， 并预测在负实际利率的环境中，黄金将继续有出色表现。 如果用均值方差 ...

事项： 伴随美国三大股指下跌，避险情绪驱动黄金价格继续上涨，截至 2025 年 11 月 12 日，伦敦金价格收于 4017.845 美元/盎司，沪金收于 913.26 元/克。我们仍看好黄金中长期价格走势，居民资产配置中黄金的比 例在 2-10%间较适宜，机构配置盘比例则可适当提升。 证券研究报告 | 2025年10月12日 策略解读 黄金：配多少，何时抛 策略研究·策略解读 | 证券分析师： | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 王开 | | | | | | | 021-60933132 | wangkai8@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521030001 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 1 观点： 黄金在资产配置中扮演着重要的多元化与风险对冲角色，踏空追涨和配置比例是市场关心话题。关于黄金 的最佳配置比例，瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）最近认为合理比例是 15%，当前高通胀、高政府债务的经济环 境与 1970 年代相似。在此背景下，持有现金和债券并非有效的财富储存手段，而黄金是独立于信用体系 的避险资产，能 ...