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金属狂潮起:有色股飙升背后的四重共振与未来密码
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 09:37
供需格局的根本性重构是上涨的核心动力。供给端,铜因全球矿山扰动形成 59 万吨供需缺口,铝受国内 4500 万吨产能红线限制缺口扩大至 128 万吨,缅甸 锡矿禁令、刚果(金)钴出口限制进一步加剧供应紧张。需求端则呈现 "传统 + 新兴" 双轮驱动,基建投资支撑铜铝消费,新能源车、光伏等领域推动锂、 钴需求增速超 30%,AI 数据中心更拉动高端铜合金需求爆发。 政策与资金的助推让行情愈发强劲。国内《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案》明确新能源、智能电网等需求发力点,对锑、稀土的出口管制拉大海外价差;海 外资源国政策收紧则强化资源稀缺性。资金面上,板块主力单月净流入超 10 亿元,紫金矿业等龙头获北向资金增持,而板块平均 PE 仅 15 倍,低估值吸引 力显著。 10 月 9 日,有色金属板块再度上演 "狂飙" 戏码,板块指数单日暴涨 8.15%,开盘即突破 8380 点,盘中最高触及 8664 点,成交量达 6478 万手,成交金额突 破 1511 亿元。今年以来,申万有色金属指数累计涨幅已达 49.27%,远超沪深 300 指数表现,黄金、稀土等细分板块领涨,山东黄金、北方稀土等龙头股股 价屡创新高,二级市场呈 ...
黄金股午后涨势不止,招金黄金等10余股涨停
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 06:20
黄金股午后涨势不止,山东黄金、中金黄金、招金黄金、西部黄金、西部矿业等10余股涨停。永赢中证 沪深港黄金产业股票ETF基金经理刘庭宇表示,"对于黄金股来说,其半年度业绩高增长的核心原因在 于金价上涨和产量增加带来的量价齐升。而高增长的业绩又进一步摊薄了金矿公司的PE估值,这意味 着后续黄金股或有望再迎戴维斯双击。 ...
创新药全链条高景气持续,维昇药业-B(02561)或迎“戴维斯双击”
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-03 01:04
2025年以来,港股医药市场结构性行情凸显,创新药板块凭借"扭亏为盈"的基本面拐点与"出海破局"的 产业升级,成为资金聚焦核心赛道。 西南证券研报显示,2025年半年报数据显示,149家港股医药上市公司上半年归母净利润同比增长 29.7%,其中36家创新药企业实现收入285亿元,同比增长15.8%、归母净利润18亿元,标志行业正式进 入"盈利驱动"新周期,而聚焦未被充分定价的稀缺标的成为市场共识。 多家机构看好创新药后市,资金关注"高性价比"标的 2025年上半年,港股创新药板块完成从"研发投入期"向"商业化收获期"的关键跨越。这一转变源于各大 创新药企商业化能力的持续验证,以百济神州、信达生物为代表的企业,通过核心产品的全球推广与海 外授权,逐步形成"研发-盈利-再投入"的正向循环,推动板块实现收入端的稳健增长及利润端的扭亏为 盈。 在港股创新药"差异化兑现"周期中,市场积极寻求既有"估值修复+产品兑现"双重逻辑,又兼具业绩确 定性与长期成长空间的稀缺投资标的,维昇药业-B(02561)或属其中。中信证券研报显示,维昇药业是 内分泌领域新星,拥有强力合作伙伴创新赋能,公司在国内市场广阔的生长激素赛道拥有潜在 ...
上市首日暴涨68%,市值突破三千亿!GIC、贝莱德为何纷纷重仓押注紫金黄金国际?
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 14:32
在全球黄金价格持续攀升、市场避险情绪高涨的宏观背景下,港交所迎来了年内备受瞩目的首家中资背 景的国际黄金开采企业——紫金黄金国际(02259)的上市敲钟。 作为近期大热门新股,此次紫金黄金国际共计发行348,990,700股股份,募资总额高达约249.8亿港元, 使其成为年内港股第二大IPO项目,规模仅次于宁德时代(300750)。 除了资源禀赋外,紫金黄金国际更具亮点的是其较高的运营效率和"点石成金"的并购整合能力。 智通财经APP了解到,紫金黄金国际继承了紫金矿业在低品位、难选冶矿石处理方面的领先技术和逾30 年的丰富项目经验。由于进入全球金矿领域相对较晚,公司收购的多数矿山在初期都存在运营管理不善 或资源禀赋未充分探明等问题,多处于亏损状态。 招股期间,市场反应极为热烈,孖展认购在首日下午便已超购逾134倍,吸引了包括新加坡政府投资公 司(GIC)、贝莱德(BlackRock)、高瓴资本在内的29家全球顶级机构作为基石投资者,合计认购比 例高达49.9%,几乎占据了全球发售股份的一半。 上市首日,公司股价表现异常强劲,开盘即报111.5港元,较71.59港元的发行价大幅高开55.75%。截至 收盘,股价 ...
成长投资,何以安信?
中国基金报· 2025-09-30 01:53
股市再现激情澎湃的成长行情。只是这回的主角,从五年前的高端白酒、新能源,变成如今的AI算力、机器人。对于广大投资者而言,或许 有人赚得盆满钵满,但多数人可能在谨慎观望。毕竟,成长股天然具有高收益与高波动性的特征,难以让人安心; 大量主题炒作为主的"伪 成长股"泡沫巨大,不易给人信心。 价值投资强调的安全边际与基本面深度分析,恰好能解决成长投资的"不安"与"难信"。有这么一家基金公司,他们在五年前的成长 牛市 中 低调修炼内功,以价值投资的强项去重构成长投资体系。而今年,成长阵营中也迎来了一批回报回撤兼优、配置相对均衡的基金,它们有 一个共同的前缀——"安信"。 价值投资辨析成长真伪 成长基金,是 牛市 战局里锋利的矛。截至9月 26 日,整个市场2025年以来涨幅翻倍的主动权益基金有3 1 只,多数为人形机器人、创新 药、算力等主题基金,只有少数是全市场选股的基金。 其中,安信基金成长投资部总经理陈鹏管理的全基产品就有三只,分别为安信成长精选、安信洞见成长、安信新回报。和押单一赛道的主 题产品不同,陈鹏管理的产品为成长宽基,用均衡布局的方式实现了极强的业绩锐度。与此同时,这三只产品今年以来最大回撤均小于 17 ...
PE估值陷阱:“越跌越贵”该如何破解?
雪球· 2025-09-29 07:47
以下文章来源于六亿居士 ,作者六亿居士 六亿居士 . 雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表,坚持指数基金(ETF)低估定投,分享指数基金基础分析,让我们:买入有依,持有有底,卖出有 据。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: 六亿居士 来源:雪球 你是不是也遇到过这种情况 ? 买的时候觉得PE很低很划算 , 结果买完一路下跌 ; 等跌到心慌想继续定投时 , 指数没涨 , PE却蹭蹭往上飙 , 盯着计划 , 却怎么也下不去手 。 中证医疗 、 新能源 、 光伏都经历过这样的陷阱 : 利润暴涨时PE被压低 , 看上去很便宜 。 利润下滑时PE被动抬高 , 反而显得越来越贵 。 如果只盯PE , 要么可能被套 , 要么错过介入的机会 。 前几天 , 有朋友问起消费电子的估值 。 61翻了下历史数据 , 发现它正好走过了一轮 " 利润下滑 、 估值失真 、 利润修复 " 的过程 。 换句话 说 , 那时候看PE嫌贵的人 , 其实错过了恰当的低位 。 从数据看 , 消费电子在2022至2023年进入低谷期 , 指 ...
药明合联20250926
2025-09-28 14:57
Summary of WuXi AppTec Conference Call Industry Overview - The ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) industry is projected to maintain an annual growth rate of approximately 30%, significantly higher than that of chemical and biological drugs [2][4] - The global market has 16 ADC products launched, with rapid sales growth expected to continue [2][9] - The complexity of ADCs leads to a high outsourcing rate, currently around 70%, which is anticipated to rise to 80% [11] Company Insights - WuXi AppTec is a leader in the domestic market, benefiting from the rapid growth of the ADC industry [2] - The company possesses a unique CRDMO (Contract Research, Development, and Manufacturing Organization) strategy and core technologies, such as the Wuxi DIX toxin technology, enabling integrated production capabilities from small molecule toxins to antibody conjugation [4][5][6] - The company is constructing dual facilities to ensure supply chain stability and security [6] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the number of ADC projects increased by 44% year-over-year, with the number of clients growing by 34% [3][15] - The backlog of orders reached $1.3 billion, reflecting a nearly 160% year-over-year increase [3][16] - The revenue contribution from backend services rose to 59%, up from approximately 30% previously [16] Growth Projections - Short-term growth is primarily driven by commercialized projects, with large-scale volume expected to begin in 2027 [7][17] - The company anticipates a growth rate of around 45% for 2025, although a conservative estimate of 35% has been provided by Zhongtai Securities [8][17] - The introduction of new molecules such as bispecific antibodies and XDCs is expected to drive future growth [7][10] Competitive Advantages - WuXi AppTec's competitive advantages include a comprehensive CRDMO service platform, deep industry experience since 2013, and a significant reduction in the drug development cycle from an average of 24-30 months to 15 months [13] - The company has expanded its production capacity significantly, with plans to triple its capacity by 2024, focusing on both domestic and international markets [14] Market Position - WuXi AppTec holds nearly 10% of the global market share and 70% of the domestic market share, indicating room for further growth [11][12] - The company’s integrated production capabilities position it favorably against competitors, enhancing customer loyalty and retention [13] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about its long-term growth prospects, especially with the potential for increased revenue from clinical phase III projects [17] - The overall industry outlook remains positive, supporting sustained high growth for WuXi AppTec [17]
国资委聚焦“稳电价稳煤价”,重申重视煤炭低位反转机会
Changjiang Securities· 2025-09-28 07:45
丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 国资委聚焦"稳电价稳煤价",重申重视煤炭 低位反转机会 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 我们认为,考虑到当前较低的港口库存&坑口和港口煤价倒挂依旧,双节后煤价回调空间有限; 若双重拉尼娜发生,2025Q4 煤价上涨有望超预期。此外,考虑到目前煤炭拥挤度较低(Q2 较 低的持仓比例)、弹性动力煤&焦煤公司 PB 和 ROE 基本处在 2016 年以来下 1/3 分位数水平, 周期见底特征有所显现。由于 2025Q2 煤价底部基本处在港口煤炭完全成本线 90%分位附近, 2025Q2 底部煤价有望成为未来 2-3 年煤价相对底部,后市煤价震荡向上概率较大。若后续顺 周期经济刺激政策出台带来需求端利好,则煤炭有望迎来戴维斯双击。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 SAC:S0490516080003 SAC:S0490519030001 SAC:S0490517070008 SAC:S0490522090003 SAC:S0490524120007 SFC:BUT918 SFC ...
市值一年涨近4.5倍!斯菱股份于机器人赛道再开第二增长曲线
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 14:07
Core Viewpoint - Company Slin is transitioning from a "single bearing supplier" to a "precision manufacturing platform enterprise," leveraging its leadership in the automotive bearing aftermarket and entering the robot harmonic reducer market, creating a "dual-driven" growth model [1][17]. Group 1: Company Overview - Slin has been a leader in the automotive bearing aftermarket for over 20 years, focusing on high-precision products used in automotive braking, power, and transmission systems [3][5]. - The company has established a strong competitive barrier through continuous technological advancements, including the development of multiple generations of hub bearings and strategic acquisitions to enhance its product lines [3][5][7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - From 2020 to 2024, Slin's revenue grew from 525 million to 774 million, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.2%, while gross margin increased from 24.99% to 32.52% [7][9]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue increase of 8.75% year-on-year, reaching 391 million, with a gross margin of 34.82% [11][12]. Group 3: Market Position and Trends - The global bearing market is projected to grow from $1,340 billion in 2023 to $2,340 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 8.3% [13][15]. - Slin is well-positioned to benefit from the trend of domestic substitution in the bearing industry, as it continues to upgrade its production capacity and expand its global footprint [15][16]. Group 4: Robotics Sector Development - The global humanoid robot market is expected to grow significantly, with sales projected to reach 1.24 million units and a market size of 6.339 billion by 2025 [16][17]. - Slin plans to invest 117 million in establishing a robotics components division, focusing on the development of harmonic reducers and other components, leveraging its existing automotive supply chain advantages [17].
新世界发展(0017.HK)去杠杆初战告捷:基本面焕新,迎价值重估
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-26 10:39
Core Viewpoint - New World Development has successfully implemented a debt reduction strategy since the new management team took office in November last year, leading to a significant revaluation in the capital market and outperforming other large Hong Kong developers in stock performance [1][2] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, New World achieved a core business steady growth, with total debt and net debt decreasing by HKD 57 billion and HKD 35 billion year-on-year, respectively, and cash flow turning positive [1] - The company successfully secured HKD 882 billion in bank refinancing, extending loan maturities and significantly enhancing short-term liquidity [1] - Capital expenditures decreased by 15% to HKD 12.6 billion, with plans to further reduce it to below HKD 12 billion in fiscal year 2026 [1] Operational Efficiency - New World has optimized operational efficiency and governance, resulting in a 16% reduction in general and administrative expenses to HKD 3.5 billion [1] - The average interest rate and total financing costs have significantly decreased, with financing costs reduced by HKD 1.3 billion year-on-year [1] Strategic Outlook - The company aims to maintain a "steady progress" approach in fiscal year 2026, prioritizing the reduction of overall debt and further optimizing its financial structure [2] - New World has raised its sales target for fiscal year 2026 to HKD 27 billion, the only developer in the industry to do so, reflecting strong confidence in its future prospects [2] Market Response - Since 2025, New World’s stock price has increased by 52%, outperforming peers such as Cheung Kong (20%), Sun Hung Kai Properties (18%), and Henderson Land (24%) [2] - Recent policy changes in Shenzhen and other major cities, including relaxed purchase restrictions, are expected to positively impact the real estate market [2] - Analysts suggest that New World’s current stock price is undervalued, providing a high margin of safety, with potential for significant recovery as market confidence improves [2]