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石头科技(688169):模式变革加快,市占规模优先
CMS· 2025-05-13 08:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][6][7] Core Views - The company has experienced explosive revenue growth following a channel model adjustment, with significant increases in R&D investment and new product launches, leading to a strategic focus on market share expansion both domestically and internationally [1][6] - The company achieved a total revenue of 11.945 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.03%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.977 billion yuan, down 3.64% year-on-year [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.07 yuan per share and increase its capital reserve by 4 shares for every 10 shares held, while also significantly increasing R&D spending to 971 million yuan, up 56.93% year-on-year [6] Revenue Growth - The company’s sales volume grew by 33% in 2024, with an average price increase of 1% [6] - The company became the global leader in both sales volume and revenue for robotic vacuum cleaners in 2024, with revenue from robotic vacuum cleaners reaching 10.8 billion yuan, up 34% [6] - The company’s online retail market share for robotic vacuum cleaners increased by 3.55 percentage points to 25% in Q1 2025 [6] Market Expansion - The company is expanding its online and offline channels, with significant growth in both domestic and international markets [6] - In the domestic market, the company has introduced new products and benefited from government subsidies, leading to continued growth [6] - In the European market, the company has successfully adjusted its sales structure and returned to rapid growth after a brief decline [6] - In North America, the company has entered new retail channels, which are expected to contribute to continued growth [6] Profitability and Costs - The company’s gross margin was 44.9% in Q4 2024 and 45.5% in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline due to warranty fee adjustments and tariff impacts [6] - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 was 10.2% and 7.8%, respectively, down 13.1 and 13.9 percentage points year-on-year [6] Product Innovation - The company has launched several new products, including the G30 Space robotic vacuum cleaner and the A30 Pro Steam floor washer, which have driven market share growth [6] - The integration of AI technology into the company’s app has enhanced its product offerings and competitive positioning [6] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2 billion yuan in 2025, 2.5 billion yuan in 2026, and 3 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 20, 16, and 13 [6][7]