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开源证券吕明: 政策红利下行业分化凸显 关注科技家电赛道投资机遇
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-08-28 22:06
Core Insights - The home appliance industry is experiencing significant differentiation, with the "trade-in" policy stimulating consumption and driving the sector towards smart and green transformation [1][2] - White goods and tech appliances are showing strong profit growth, while kitchen appliances are facing revenue declines due to the sluggish real estate market [1][2] Industry Performance - The overall revenue of the home appliance industry has improved significantly due to the expansion of the trade-in policy to 12 product categories, with notable differences across segments [2] - The white goods sector has demonstrated resilience, benefiting from national subsidies and improved cost structures, leading to revenue and profit growth exceeding expectations for 2024 [2] - The TV industry has become a benchmark for policy benefits, with profit improvements driven by domestic subsidies and increased export shares, alongside technological upgrades like Mini LED [2] - The kitchen appliance sector is under pressure, with expected revenue declines in the first half of 2025, although leading companies are gaining market share through high-end product offerings [2] - The tech appliance sector continues to grow rapidly, with companies like Roborock and Ninebot leading the charge, particularly in the robot vacuum segment, which is projected to exceed 15 billion yuan in online sales in 2024 [2] Policy Impact - The trade-in policy has engaged over 66 million consumers, directly stimulating consumption by over 270 billion yuan, with retail sales of major appliances increasing by 30.7% year-on-year [3] - The competitive landscape is undergoing profound changes, with platforms shifting from price-driven to value-driven models, benefiting leading companies while squeezing smaller players [3] Transformation Strategies - The home appliance industry is in a transition phase, requiring breakthroughs through technology, supply chain optimization, and strategic balance to achieve sustainable development [4] - AI technology is reshaping product design and functionality, particularly in cleaning appliances, enhancing user experience through features like spatial mapping and obstacle recognition [4][5] - Supply chain efficiency and scenario-based solutions are becoming core competitive advantages, with companies encouraged to build digital supply chains for real-time data sharing and production adjustments [5] Growth Opportunities - The growth momentum of the home appliance industry is shifting from traditional categories to tech-driven segments, with emerging categories like robot vacuums and lawn mowers expected to see explosive growth [6] - Investment opportunities lie in tech appliance sectors with low penetration rates and high growth potential, particularly in smart cleaning devices [6][7] - The competitive landscape in the smart cleaning appliance sector is evolving from price wars to differentiation, with leading companies enhancing their market share through product innovation and cost control [7]