数据显示，本次双十一促销周期刷新纪录，10月21日至11月1日全国快递包裹量达139.38亿件，消费端 热度高涨，悦己消费成主流，兴趣、古玩、潮玩等品类增长显著，AI智能设备爆发，AI平板、手机成 交额分别增200%、150%，即时零售参与度提升，淘宝闪购接入40万品牌门店，零订单门店数同比增2 倍。 黑猫投诉日前发布《2025双十一消费投诉数据报告》，梳理并公布10月9日至11月14日"史上最长双十 一"的消费与投诉情况。 品类投诉方面，服饰投诉超5200件居首，美妆、日用电器投诉超4000件；受苏丹红事件影响，国货美妆 品牌投诉占比从不足四成升至近七成。智能家居如扫地机器人、洗地机投诉超530件，集中于故障、漏 水等问题。物流投诉超7万件，快递破损占比最大，占比近21%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group is recommended as a strong buy due to its position as one of the top three global smartphone manufacturers and the largest AIoT smart hardware platform, with a favorable outlook in the AI-driven industrial restructuring process [1] Smartphone Business - In Q3 2025, Xiaomi's global smartphone shipments increased by 0.5% year-on-year to 43.3 million units, maintaining a market share of 13.6% globally and 16.7% domestically, ranking second [2] - The company has adjusted its total shipment target for 2025 to 170 million units, while facing ongoing cost pressures from rising storage prices [2] Automotive Business - Xiaomi achieved its first quarterly operating profit in Q3 2025, with revenue from smart electric vehicles and AI-related businesses reaching 29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 199% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36% [3] - The company delivered over 40,000 vehicles monthly in September and October, on track to meet its annual delivery target of 350,000 units [3] IoT and Internet Business - In Q3 2025, IoT business revenue reached 27.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, with significant growth in overseas markets [4] - The internet business achieved record revenue of 9.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, with a gross margin of 76.9% [4] - The number of global monthly active users reached 740 million, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year growth [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - Global risk appetite has significantly declined, leading to a synchronized drop in equity and commodity markets, with major stock indices experiencing widespread pullbacks, particularly in the technology sector [2][39] - The MSCI Global Index fell by 2.5%, with developed markets showing a pattern where frontier markets declined less than developed and emerging markets [4][40] - The VIX index and MOVE 5-day moving average have risen sharply, indicating increased market volatility [2][39] Group 2: Fixed Income - The credit bond market has seen a cooling in trading sentiment, with institutions adopting a more conservative approach, favoring short-term bonds over long-duration ones [2][10] - The yield curve for Chinese bonds has shifted upward, indicating a "bear steepening" trend, while U.S. bonds have shown a "bull steepening" trend with a downward shift in yields [5][41] Group 3: Commodity and Currency - Commodity indices such as South China and CRB have declined by 1.8% and 2.2% respectively, with only three out of thirteen major commodity futures recording price increases [6][42] - The U.S. dollar index has risen by 0.9%, surpassing 100, while the Japanese yen has depreciated by 1.2%, approaching the 160 mark against the dollar [6][42] Group 4: Steel Industry - The apparent demand for steel from the five major steel mills increased by 3.9% week-on-week, while production decreased by 1.9% [18][21] - The profitability of steel companies has declined, with the average gross profit per ton of rebar dropping by 20 yuan to 61 yuan [19][20] - The steel industry is expected to stabilize in demand, with supply contraction anticipated due to ongoing policies aimed at reducing production [21][22] Group 5: Construction Industry - The activation of the Tanzania-Zambia Railway project has been announced, which is expected to significantly enhance freight capacity and reduce transportation time [23][24] - The Chinese government is focusing on urban renewal initiatives to stimulate investment and consumption, which may positively impact the construction sector [24] Group 6: Pharmaceutical Industry - The company under review, Fangsheng Pharmaceutical, has a focus on innovative traditional Chinese medicine, with a projected EPS growth from 0.69 to 0.97 yuan from 2025 to 2027 [30][31] - The company has faced revenue declines due to policy impacts, with a 6.75% year-on-year decrease in industrial revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 [31][33] - Despite short-term challenges, the company has seen growth in cardiovascular products, indicating potential for recovery [31][33]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong and resilient growth in its Q3 2025 financial results, with total revenue reaching 113.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.3% and a net profit of 11.3 billion yuan, up 80.9% year-on-year, indicating robust performance across its business segments [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q3 2025 total revenue was 113.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.4% [1]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 11.3 billion yuan, reflecting an 80.9% year-on-year increase and a 4.4% quarter-on-quarter increase [1]. - Gross margin improved to 22.9%, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year and 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. Group 2: Mobile Business - Q3 2025 mobile business revenue was 46 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.0% [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) slightly declined, with a gross margin of 11.1%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year and 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Global smartphone shipments reached 43.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, maintaining a market share of 13.6% [2]. Group 3: Automotive Business - The automotive segment achieved revenue of 29 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a significant year-on-year increase of 199% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36% [3]. - The segment recorded a gross margin of 25.5%, with a slight decrease of 0.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company achieved its first quarterly operating profit of 700 million yuan in this segment, indicating a positive trend for future profitability [3]. Group 4: IoT and Internet Business - Q3 2025 IoT business revenue was 27.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 28.8% [4]. - The gross margin for IoT was 23.9%, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year and 1.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4]. - Internet business revenue reached a record high of 9.38 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.1% [4]. Group 5: Strategic Outlook - The company is focused on high-end product strategies and international expansion in its mobile business, while the IoT segment is expected to benefit from enhanced self-research capabilities and overseas market opportunities [5]. - The automotive business aims to enter the top five global automakers by 2025-2027, supported by a robust product matrix and ecosystem synergies [5].

Economic Overview - High-frequency data indicates that automotive consumption remains strong, benefiting from tax incentives and subsidies, while textile and film consumption is weak[7] - Real estate sales and land market show signs of fatigue, with infrastructure special bonds fully issued but project progress lagging[7] - Exports to South Korea are recovering, while import demand weakens post shopping festival[7] Market Performance - Major global asset prices have declined, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 5.1%, the largest decline among major indices[9] - The S&P 500 Index fell by 1.9%, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 3.9%[9] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 8 basis points to 4.06%[9] Federal Reserve Insights - The U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly exceeding expectations of 51,000[12] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%[12] - Federal Reserve officials exhibit significant internal disagreement regarding future monetary policy direction[8] Investment Strategies - ETF inflows have increased significantly to 503 billion, while foreign and financing funds have seen outflows[15] - The market's trading activity has decreased, with average daily turnover dropping to 1.9 trillion[14] - The risk appetite remains low, with the overall market sentiment declining[14] Sector Analysis - The technology sector is expected to benefit from AI advancements, with recommendations for investments in internet and computing sectors[35] - The financial sector is poised for recovery, with a focus on brokerage and insurance stocks[35] - Consumer stocks are seen as undervalued, with potential growth in food and beverage sectors[35]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 本周研究跟踪与投资思考：10 月家电内外销及 12 月空调排产在高基数下表 现均有所承压。10 月家电社零下降 15%，预计白电、黑电等零售额下降超 20%， 小家电表现略好；10 月家电出口额下降 13%，空调依然承压。 10 月高基数下家电零售需求承压，小家电表现略好。据统计局数据，10 月 我国社会消费品零售总额同比增长 2.9%，累计同比增长 4.3%；家电和音像 器材类限额以上零售额同比下降 14.6%，累计同比增长 20.1%。分品类看， 据奥维云网数据显示，10 月空调零售量同比下降 23.8%，线上/线下零售额 同比分别-23.7%/-48.9%，冰箱线上/线下零售额同比-21.9%/-42.7%，洗衣 机线上/线下零售额同比-19.0%/-39.1%；厨房大电线上线下零售额同样有所 下降。小家电零售额降幅更小，电饭煲线上/线下零售额同比-17.1%/-6.9%， 空气炸锅线上/线下零售额同比-10.1%/+9.8%；扫地机器人线上/线下零售额 同比-34.8%/-1.6%，洗地机线上/线下零售额同比-19.4%/-9.3%。 10 月空调销量下降 2 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 家电行业周报（25 年第 47 周） 优于大市 10 月家电内外销表现承压，12 月空调出口排产降幅收窄 本周研究跟踪与投资思考：10 月家电内外销及 12 月空调排产在高基数下表 现均有所承压。10 月家电社零下降 15%，预计白电、黑电等零售额下降超 20%， 小家电表现略好；10 月家电出口额下降 13%，空调依然承压。 10 月高基数下家电零售需求承压，小家电表现略好。据统计局数据，10 月 我国社会消费品零售总额同比增长 2.9%，累计同比增长 4.3%；家电和音像 器材类限额以上零售额同比下降 14.6%，累计同比增长 20.1%。分品类看， 据奥维云网数据显示，10 月空调零售量同比下降 23.8%，线上/线下零售额 同比分别-23.7%/-48.9%，冰箱线上/线下零售额同比-21.9%/-42.7%，洗衣 机线上/线下零售额同比-19.0%/-39.1%；厨房大电线上线下零售额同样有所 下降。小家电零售额降幅更小，电饭煲线上/线下零售额同比-17.1%/-6.9%， 空气炸锅线上/线下零售额同比-10.1%/+9.8%；扫地机器人线上/线下零售额 同 ...

当前时点地产近况更新和产业链投资机会梳理 20251120 摘要 房地产市场持续承压，1-10 月全国房产累计销量和金额分别同比下降 7%和 10%，投资和施工端压力加剧，新开工面积和拿地面积较峰值时 下跌约 70%，房价下跌 35%以上，市场处于加速寻底状态。 核心城市房价快速下跌或难持续，一线城市房价调整对居民资产端冲击 显著，目前更可能是情绪化的快速出清阶段，以上海为例，2026 年初 五年限售解禁期或带来一定下跌，但总体上距离周期底部已经不远。 政策层面，核心城市房价走弱或促使未来政策力度加大，全国层面新增 个人住房贷款贴息政策或在评估中，提高个人住房贷款利息所得税专项 扣除、进一步下调住房交易契税等政策也在酝酿中。 建材行业需关注顶层持续关注并琢磨支持政策，优秀上市公司将先于行 业见底，随着地产救市措施逐步落实，有望带动整体市场回暖，三棵树 等企业虽优于行业平均水平，但整体市场环境仍充满挑战。 大类资产配置应关注低位有边际变化或赔率较高的板块，如地产链，同 时需谨慎考虑结构性流动性担忧问题，海螺水泥因国内地产及供需关系 处于低位，有较好的配置价值，重视反内卷政策可能带来的供给侧改革 机会。 Q&A ...

美团龙珠合伙人王新宇 整理编辑丨小龙 "我们不是钱投得太多，而是远远不够。" 在资本对具身智能赛道"估值泡沫"的争议声中，美团龙珠合伙人王新宇——这位兼具技术功底与投资 视野的 投资人，用一句掷地有声的判断，展现出了穿越周期的定力与长期主义。 2021年，王新宇牵头组建美团龙珠科技投资团队，围绕电动化与智能化两大核心主线，在新能源 车、AI大模型、具身智能等关键赛道 频频 落子。他主导投资了月之暗面、宇树科技、星海图、自变 量等一批代表未来的科技企业，持续捕捉属于这个时代的"时代品类"。 | | | | 龙珠在具身智能领域的布局 (据创业邦不完全统计) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司名称 | 成立时间 | 一句话简介 | 龙珠参与投资轮次 | 此轮次投资时间 | 融资金额 | | 宇树科技 | 2016/8/26 | 高运动性能四足机 器人研发商 | B3轮 | 2024年9月 | 1亿美元 | | 法奥机器人 | 2019/4/2 | 协作机器人研发生 产商 | B轮 | 2022年3月 | 5000万美元 | | | | | C轮 | 20 ...

Group 1: Energy Supply and Transportation - Liangshan Port in Shandong plays a crucial role in energy supply for the Yangtze River Delta, facilitating the transportation of coal from Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia through rail and water routes [1][5] - The port has implemented a new "water-rail direct connection" model, significantly reducing coal transportation time from 5 days to 3 days, thereby enhancing energy supply efficiency [3][7] - The geographical advantage of Liangshan Port, located at the intersection of the Wari Railway and the Grand Canal, allows for nearly 100 million tons of coal transportation annually [5][7] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Liangshan Port has adopted smart management technologies, including robots for cleaning and coupling operations, which improve efficiency and reduce labor intensity [7][10] - The port's smart management center utilizes big data for real-time monitoring and dynamic adjustment of coal transportation plans, maximizing operational efficiency [10] Group 3: Clean Energy Initiatives - In Shandong's Jiaozhou, solar photovoltaic panels have been installed in rural areas, providing clean energy for winter heating and eliminating traditional coal heating methods [12][14] - The transition to electric heating in Jiaozhou has resulted in a 15% year-on-year decrease in PM2.5 levels during winter, improving air quality significantly [16] - Inner Mongolia is also advancing clean heating initiatives, with schools transitioning from coal to clean energy heating systems, enhancing living conditions [17][19]