Core Viewpoint - UnitedHealth's stock has experienced a significant decline following disappointing Q2 earnings, with shares closing at $261, the lowest in five years, and a year-to-date loss of 48% [1][3]. Financial Performance - For Q2, UnitedHealth reported adjusted EPS of $4.08, which missed analyst estimates and represented a 40% year-over-year decline [3]. - Revenue increased by 12.9% to $111.6 billion, with premiums rising to $87.9 billion [3]. Cost and Margin Issues - Medical costs surged by 20% to $78.6 billion, leading to a medical care ratio of 89.4%, influenced by worsening medical trends and reduced Medicare funding [4]. Investment Outlook - The AI model suggests that while UnitedHealth is currently a risky investment due to regulatory scrutiny and declining margins, there may be potential for recovery by late 2025 into early 2026 [5][6]. - Analysts predict EPS could rebound to between $18 and $20 by late 2026, potentially increasing the stock price to $360 and $400 at typical valuation multiples [7]. Strategic Recommendations - Investors are advised to monitor the $250 support level and wait for clearer signals from Q3 and Q4 2025 earnings before making investment decisions [10]. - Gradual dollar-cost averaging is recommended as a safer approach amid ongoing uncertainties [10].