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摩根大通力挺高通(QCOM.US)AI牛市:告别单核智能手机叙事 边缘AI催化新一轮增长
智通财经网· 2025-07-30 09:20
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's latest report highlights Qualcomm's (QCOM.US) strategic shift from a heavy reliance on smartphone business to diversification into PC (especially high-performance AI-enabled AIPC), automotive chips, and IoT, showcasing different growth dynamics and future drivers, which is expected to lead to robust growth and exceed Wall Street's expectations for Q3 and FY2025 [1][2] Qualcomm's Business Diversification - Qualcomm's revenue composition is increasingly diversified, covering smartphones, PCs, automotive electronics, and IoT, with smartphones remaining the largest segment driven by Snapdragon chips and 5G modem patents [2][4] - The company is benefiting from the unexpected strong demand for AI-enabled high-end smartphones, particularly in flagship Android devices, achieving low double-digit year-over-year growth despite a slowdown in the overall smartphone market [2][4] Edge AI Strategy - Qualcomm's core strategy revolves around Edge AI, deploying AI models directly on local devices for real-time processing, which reduces latency and bandwidth usage [3] - The PC segment is emerging as a new focus for Qualcomm's Edge AI strategy, particularly with the introduction of ARM-based platforms like Oryon CPU and NPU, targeting the AI laptop market [3] Automotive and IoT Growth - Qualcomm's automotive chip business has shown impressive growth, maintaining approximately 30% growth driven by the digitalization and electrification trends in the automotive industry, with over $30 billion in orders [4] - The IoT segment, covering wearables, AR/VR, smart home, and industrial IoT, is also experiencing stable growth, contributing 20-40% of Qualcomm's revenue and growing faster than the core smartphone business [4] Resilience and Valuation - Qualcomm's diversification strategy enhances its resilience against market fluctuations, allowing it to maintain revenue guidance even if it loses major clients like Apple [4][7] - Morgan Stanley has reiterated a bullish stance on Qualcomm, raising the 12-month target price from $190 to $200, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term growth potential and the unique defensive attributes of its diversified business model [2][6][9] Semiconductor Industry Outlook - The semiconductor industry is viewed positively, with a focus on opportunities in high-performance AI chips, automotive electronics, and edge computing, where Qualcomm's expertise positions it uniquely [10] - Qualcomm's technology leadership in Edge AI across multiple sectors, including smartphones, automotive, and IoT, is expected to gain greater market recognition, enhancing its valuation [10] Investment Considerations - Qualcomm is seen as a balanced investment choice, offering both defensive characteristics and growth potential, with a valuation that has not yet fully reflected its long-term growth prospects [11]