Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1.43%, with a 3% increase over the last three trading days, while the NASDAQ has risen approximately 4.3% in the same period [1][2] - The Russell 2000, representing small-cap stocks, has surged 7% since last Friday, indicating strong performance in this segment [2] - Health care has been a leading sector in the fourth quarter, with the XLV ETF up 2.25% today, while consumer discretionary (XLY) also saw gains of over 2% [3] Sector Performance - Seven sectors, including materials, consumer staples, industrials, financials, and communication services, are outperforming the S&P 500, with only energy and utilities showing losses [3] - The technology sector had mixed results, with Nvidia down 2.5% and AMD experiencing a larger loss of 4%, while companies like Applied Materials and Analog Devices saw gains of about 5% [4][5] Company Earnings and Projections - Dell reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.59, exceeding estimates of $2.47, with total net revenue of $27.01 billion, slightly below the expected $27.19 billion [26] - Dell raised its full-year revenue outlook to between $111.2 billion and $112.2 billion, driven by strong demand for AI servers [27] - HP, Inc. reported a profit outlook for the current year that misses estimates, projecting earnings of $2.90 to $3.20 per share, while also announcing job cuts of 4,000 to 6,000 by 2028 [52][54] AI and Technology Trends - The AI server market is a significant focus for Dell, with expectations of increased shipments and backlogs, as well as improved operating margins in their infrastructure unit [28][32] - The demand for AI-driven products is causing memory chip prices to rise, with expectations of a 30% increase in Q4 and an additional 20% next year [55] - HP's AIPCs (AI PCs) are gaining traction, with over 30% of their mix in Q4, surpassing the initial target of 25%, highlighting the growing adoption of AI technology in enterprise settings [64][66]

Core Viewpoint - Company maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group (00992) due to better-than-expected performance, with revenue and adjusted net profit growing by 14.58% and 25.18% year-on-year respectively, driven by accelerated penetration of AIPC and strong AI server business [1] Performance Overview - For FY25/26 Q2, the company reported revenue of $20.452 billion, up 14.58% year-on-year, and adjusted net profit of $512 million, up 25.18% year-on-year, with net profit significantly exceeding expectations [1] IDG Smart Device Business Group - The PC business performed well, with the IDG segment achieving revenue of $15.107 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.79%. PC revenue was approximately $11.1 billion, growing 17.58% year-on-year, surpassing IDC's reported global PC shipment growth of 10.32% for Q3 [2] - AIPC's global shipment accounted for 33% of total PC shipments, with a 30% share in the domestic market for notebooks, reflecting a 3 percentage point increase from the previous quarter [2] ISG Infrastructure Solutions - The ISG segment reported revenue of $4.087 billion for FY25/26 Q2, a year-on-year increase of 23.65%. AI servers showed double-digit growth, with strong order reserves, and revenue from liquid cooling technology surged by 154% year-on-year [3] Gross Margin and Supply Chain Management - The gross margin for FY25/26 Q2 was 15.39%, up 0.66 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating effective progress in the AI server business transformation. The company has a robust supply chain and has developed comprehensive strategies to address component price increases [4] Profit Forecast - The company maintains its previous profit forecast, expecting revenues of $79.49 billion, $91.55 billion, and $105.24 billion for FY25/26 to FY27/28, with net profits of $1.67 billion, $2.03 billion, and $2.43 billion respectively, supported by its leading position in the PC market and strong growth in AI servers [5]

公司发布FY25/26Q2财报，超预期。FY25/26Q2实现营业收入204.52亿美元，同比+14.58%;实现调整后 的净利润5.12亿美元，同比+25.18%，由于净利润受到认股权证公允价值变动的影响较大，因此重点关 注调整后的净利润。整体来看，公司收入小幅超预期，净利润大超预期。 IDG智能设备业务集团 申万宏源发布研报称，维持联想集团(00992)"买入"评级，业绩超预期，营收和调整后净利润分别同比 增长14.58%和25.18%。增长主要由AIPC加速渗透(全球出货量占比达33%)和AI服务器业务强劲驱动(收 入同比增23.65%)，公司预计AI趋势将延续高景气 申万宏源主要观点如下： 业绩表现 ISG基础设施解决方案 AI服务器双位数高增，后续将维持高景气。FY25/26Q2ISG板块实现营业收入40.87亿美元，同比 +23.65%。拆分来看，AI服务器高两位数增长，订单储备情况良好;海神液冷技术收入同比大增154%， 公司AI服务器业务转型持续推进，预计在规模效应+全球供应链体系的加持下，ISG板块将实现扭亏。 FY25/26Q2公司毛利率为15.39%，环比+0.66pcts，验证公司AI ...

Core Insights - The company reported FY25/26Q2 financial results that exceeded expectations, with revenue of $20.452 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.58%, and adjusted net profit of $512 million, up 25.18% [1] Group 1: IDG Smart Device Business Group - The IDG segment achieved revenue of $15.107 billion in FY25/26Q2, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.79% [1] - PC revenue was approximately $11.1 billion, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 17.58%, outperforming IDC's reported global PC shipment growth of 10.32% for Q3 [1] - The company's AIPC accounted for 33% of global PC shipments, with a 30% share of domestic notebook shipments, marking a 3 percentage point increase from the previous quarter, indicating accelerated market penetration [1] Group 2: ISG Infrastructure Solutions - The ISG segment reported revenue of $4.087 billion in FY25/26Q2, a year-on-year increase of 23.65%, with AI server sales showing double-digit growth and a strong order backlog [2] - Revenue from liquid cooling technology surged by 154% year-on-year, while the operating loss for the ISG segment was reduced significantly by $53.485 million [2] - The gross margin improved slightly to 15.39%, up 0.66 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating effective management of rising storage costs due to a robust supply chain [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company maintains a "Buy" rating, projecting revenues of $79.49 billion, $91.55 billion, and $105.24 billion for FY25/26 to FY27/28, with net profits of $1.67 billion, $2.03 billion, and $2.43 billion respectively [3] - The strong growth in AI servers and the company's leading position in the PC market are key factors supporting this outlook [3]

因此，申万宏源维持"买入"评级。维持此前盈利预测，预计公司FY25/26-FY27/28财年实现收入794.9、 915.5、1052.4亿美元，实现归母净利润16.7、20.3、24.3亿美元，基于公司在PC市场的领先地位和AIPC 产品的不断推进，以及人工智能趋势下AI服务器的强劲增长，我们维持"买入"评级。 IDG智能设备业务集团：PC业务表现亮眼，AIPC加速渗透。FY25/26Q2IDG板块实现营业收入151.07亿 美元，同比+11.79%。根据IDC数据计算，PC收入约为111亿美元，同比增长17.58%，远高于IDC公布的 25Q3全球PC出货量同比增速10.32%。公司AIPC在全球市场出货量占整体PC出货量的33%；国内市场， 公司AIPC出货量占比笔记本总出货量的30%，较上一财季环比提升3pcts，AIPC加速渗透。PC市场整体 保持较高景气度，公司继续领跑行业。 ISG基础设施解决方案：AI服务器双位数高增，后续将维持高景气。FY25/26Q2ISG板块实现营业收入 40.87亿美元，同比+23.65%。拆分来看，AI服务器高两位数增长，订单储备情况良好；海神液冷技术收 入同比大增1 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 计算机 -18% 32% 82% HSCEI 联想集团 2025 年 11 月 22 日 联想集团 (00992) ——业绩超预期，AI 服务器维持高增 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 11 月 21 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 9.68 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8919.78 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 13.60/6.57 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 1,200.77 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 12,404.66 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.9106 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 《联想集团（00992）点评：PC 复苏超预 期，AI 服务器高速增长》 2025/08/14 《联想集团（00992）深度：被低估的 ICT 全 栈 供 应 商 （ GenAI 系列之 59 ） 》 2025/05/28 证券分析师 黄忠煌 A0230519110001 huangzh@swsresearch. ...

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group's recent financial results indicate strong growth across various business segments, with a notable increase in AI-related revenue, reflecting the company's confidence in the ongoing demand for AI technologies and solutions [1][2]. Financial Performance - Lenovo reported a 15% year-on-year revenue growth for the second quarter, reaching 146.4 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit increasing by 25% to 3.66 billion yuan [1]. - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) generated 108.1 billion yuan in revenue, up 12% year-on-year; the Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) saw a 24% increase to approximately 29.3 billion yuan; and the Solutions and Services Group (SSG) achieved 18% growth, totaling 18.3 billion yuan [1]. AI Business Insights - AI-related business revenue now accounts for 30% of total revenue, with AI terminal devices contributing 36% to IDG's overall revenue, marking a 17 percentage point increase year-on-year [1]. - The CEO emphasized that AI encompasses more than just large language models, highlighting its applications in computer vision, autonomous driving, and industrial automation, suggesting that the AI sector is in its early stages of widespread adoption [2][3]. Market Trends and Challenges - The CEO addressed the ongoing price increases in storage chips due to supply-demand imbalances driven by AI technology advancements, indicating that this trend may persist into next year [3]. - Lenovo's robust supply chain management and long-term supplier relationships are expected to mitigate the impact of cost fluctuations on profit margins, with a focus on maintaining double-digit growth in gross and net margins [3]. Windows 10 Update Impact - The transition from Windows 10 is not expected to significantly hinder the PC market, as the upgrade cycle is still ongoing, with AI PCs becoming a central driver of market demand [4][5]. - Lenovo anticipates a 5%-10% growth in the global PC market by 2026, supported by the end of the Windows 10 update cycle and the rise of AI PCs [5]. Strategic Initiatives - Lenovo is accelerating its investment in enterprise-level AI infrastructure, aiming to shift AI computing from public cloud training to local data centers and edge-side inference [5]. - The company plans to leverage hybrid AI solutions and customized services to facilitate the intelligent transformation of enterprise clients, which is expected to open new market opportunities and restore profitability in its infrastructure business [5].

11月20日，联想集团有限公司（以下简称"联想"）公布截至2025年9月30日的2025/2026财年第二财季业 绩。该财季，联想实现营收1464亿元，同比增长15%；经调整后的净利润36.6亿元，同比增长25%。 值得一提的是，第二财季，联想AI相关业务营收在总营收中的占比已提升至30%，同比提升13个百分 点。 "不仅仅是上个季度，未来人工智能都会是我们的一大增长动力，我们会继续围绕个人智能和企业智能 两大方向发力。"联想董事长兼CEO杨元庆在业绩发布会上对《证券日报》等媒体表示。在个人智能领 域，联想的战略是"一体多端"，即一个智能体能够协调同步多个设备，包括电脑、手机、平板，可穿戴 设备等。2026年1月，联想将在创新科技大会上在全球范围内推出个人超级智能体。在企业智能领域， 联想全力推进基于混合式基础设施的企业智能化解决方案，包括打造AI原生的企业运营技术生态平 台，重塑企业业务与管理流程，同时依托这些技术平台，在重点领域如制造业、零售业打造AI解决方 案。 杨元庆认为，这一波人工智能浪潮是由大语言模型开始催生的，它首先催生了巨大的人工智能基础设施 的需求，以训练为主的大规模AI算力实现了爆发式的增 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo's CEO Yang Yuanqing expressed optimism about the growth of the PC market driven by AI technology, countering concerns about an AI bubble and emphasizing the ongoing demand for AI applications across various sectors [1][2]. Group 1: AI Bubble Debate - Yang stated that there is no AI bubble, highlighting that AI encompasses more than just large language models, including computer vision, autonomous driving, and industrial automation, with widespread applications still in the early stages [2]. - This perspective aligns with views from industry leaders and economists, such as Nobel laureate Michael Spence, who described current AI investments as a "rational bubble" where the cost of under-investment outweighs the risks of over-investment [2]. - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang noted that the AI industry is in the early stages of building a multi-trillion-dollar intelligent economy, contrasting the current situation with the internet bubble era [2]. Group 2: Response to Storage Chip Price Increases - Yang addressed the cost pressures from the storage chip market, attributing them to increased demand driven by rapid AI development, and indicated that price fluctuations may continue into next year [3]. - Lenovo's strong supply chain management and long-term partnerships with suppliers allow the company to secure critical component supplies and mitigate cost impacts on profits [3]. - Analysts believe Lenovo's resilience during the storage chip price increase is due to its high proportion of enterprise clients, which focus on total cost of ownership rather than price sensitivity [3]. Group 3: PC Market Growth Prospects - Yang indicated that the upgrade cycle for Windows 10 PCs is not yet over, which will continue to support market growth for several quarters [5]. - The core growth driver for the PC market is the rise of AI PCs, which enhance user experience through localized AI features [5]. - Lenovo forecasts a 5%-10% growth in the global PC market by 2026, driven by the end of Windows 10 updates and the proliferation of AI PCs, with confidence in maintaining double-digit growth for the year [5]. Group 4: Strategic Outlook on AI Infrastructure - Lenovo is accelerating its focus on enterprise-level AI infrastructure, shifting the AI computing focus from public cloud training to local data centers and edge-side inference [6]. - The company plans to promote intelligent transformation for enterprise clients through hybrid AI solutions and customized services, which will open new market opportunities [6]. - This strategic shift is expected to help Lenovo's infrastructure business return to profitable growth [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating with a target price of RMB 75.85 [5][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 5.15 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 39.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 229 million, up 50.72% year-over-year [5][15]. - The AIoT business has become the new core driver of growth, with revenue from this segment increasing by 136.14% year-over-year in the first half of 2025, surpassing the smart automotive sector as the largest revenue source [5][17]. - The company is shifting its strategy from "in-vehicle intelligence" to "all-scenario intelligent terminals," indicating a structural change in growth momentum [5][17]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 7.27 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 34.9% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 573 million in 2025, reflecting a growth of 40.6% [3]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) for the first three quarters of 2025 was 31.72%, while the net profit margin (NPM) was 4.46% [5][16]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was RMB 401 million, down 13.70% year-over-year, primarily due to increased inventory and accounts receivable [5][16]. Business Segment Performance - The revenue from the smart automotive segment is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% from 2024 to 2027, while the IoT smart devices segment is expected to see a significant increase, with revenue projected to reach RMB 5.83 billion by 2027 [8]. - The gross profit margin for the IoT smart devices segment is expected to stabilize around 18% over the forecast period [8]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 50x for 2026, reflecting the company's strong growth prospects and strategic initiatives [5][14]. - The average PE for comparable companies in 2026 is projected to be 18.42x, indicating a significant valuation premium for the company [5][14].