1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Aluminum is in a high - level consolidation phase. Attention should be paid to buying points after a pullback. The importance of position management is increasing, and the use of options for risk hedging is necessary. The risk points for the peak are related to overseas AI - related equity asset performance and downstream processing profit indicators. The main logic for the peak inflection point of the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sector still depends on overseas macro narratives. Short - term micro - demand shows differences, with inventory accumulation and changes in spot premiums [3]. - Alumina's spot and futures are moving down in resonance, and there may still be room for decline. The fundamental driving force is downward, and as supply continues to increase and spot surplus deepens, a negative feedback loop may form. Spot prices are falling, and inventory is accumulating [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Price Difference**: This week, the A00 spot premium weakened, while the alumina spot premium strengthened. The average SMM A00 aluminum premium changed from - 100 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium changed from - 25 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton. The Shandong alumina premium to the current month changed from - 243 yuan/ton to - 158 yuan/ton, and the Henan alumina premium to the current month changed from - 148 yuan/ton to - 78 yuan/ton [7]. - **Monthly Price Difference**: The monthly price difference of Shanghai aluminum near - term contracts has increased volatility [10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased slightly, and the trading volume increased slightly. The open interest of the alumina main contract decreased significantly but remained at a historical high, and the trading volume of the alumina main contract decreased significantly [12]. - **Open Interest - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - inventory ratio of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased, while that of alumina increased slightly and is at a historically low level [17]. 3.2 Inventory - **Bauxite**: As of January 16, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 988,400 tons week - on - week. As of December, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises in China increased by 500,000 tons month - on - month. The port shipping volume of Guinea increased by 824,000 tons week - on - week, and the Australian port shipping volume decreased by 320,700 tons week - on - week. The sea - floating inventory of Guinea increased by 1,151,300 tons week - on - week, and that of Australia increased by 256,600 tons week - on - week. As of January 9, the outbound volume of bauxite from Australian ports and Guinean ports increased, while the arrival volume decreased [21][27][28]. - **Alumina**: This week, the total alumina inventory continued to increase by 75,000 tons week - on - week. The in - plant inventory remained flat, the alumina inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants increased, the port inventory decreased, and the platform/on - the - way inventory increased. As of January 16, the national alumina inventory was 4.988 million tons, an increase of 53,000 tons week - on - week [45][52]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of January 15, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 31,000 tons to 749,000 tons, showing inventory accumulation this week [53]. - **Aluminum Rods**: This week, the spot inventory and in - plant inventory of downstream aluminum rods increased [57]. - **Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Foil**: As of December, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles increased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio increased slightly. The finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plate - foil decreased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio increased slightly [59]. 3.3 Production - **Bauxite**: In December, the domestic bauxite supply increased slightly. The SMM - caliber domestic bauxite production increased slightly. The Shanxi bauxite production increased slightly, the Henan bauxite production showed different trends in different calibers, and the Guangxi bauxite production also showed different trends in different calibers [64][65]. - **Alumina**: The alumina capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of January 16, the total operating capacity of national alumina was 95.6 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons week - on - week. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 1.853 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons week - on - week, and the supply - side fundamentals remained loose [70]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of December, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, but the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. As of January 15, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum was 857,200 tons, an increase of 100 tons week - on - week. The aluminum - water ratio decreased seasonally, and the ingot - casting volume is expected to increase [76]. - **Downstream Processing**: This week, the production of recycled aluminum rods decreased by 60 tons week - on - week, the production of aluminum rods decreased by 9,700 tons week - on - week, and the production of aluminum plate - foil decreased by 2,300 tons week - on - week. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises increased by 0.1%. The operating rate of aluminum plate - strip increased by 1 percentage point, and the operating rate of aluminum foil increased by 0.7 percentage point. The operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased by 0.9 percentage point, the operating rate of aluminum cables remained unchanged, the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloys remained unchanged, and the operating rate of primary aluminum alloys increased by 0.2 percentage point [81][82][87]. 3.4 Profit - **Alumina**: In December, the alumina profit continued to decline slightly. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina was 135.4 yuan/ton. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased slightly, while the profit in Guangxi was better due to relatively firm cost [89]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum profit remained at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies increased uncertainty and interfered with market expectations [104]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 80 yuan/ton week - on - week, but the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [105]. 3.5 Consumption - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum increased [114]. - **Export**: In November 2025, the total export volume of aluminum products increased by 38,500 tons month - on - month. The export demand for aluminum products was hindered by trade - policy adjustments, and the export profit and loss of aluminum processed products showed differentiation [116][118]. - **Absolute Consumption Volume**: The transaction area of commercial housing was at a low level, and the automobile production decreased month - on - month [119].