1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, aluminum prices fluctuated significantly. Mid - week, aluminum led the rise in the non - ferrous sector, but prices fell in the second half of the week due to the decline of the US stock market and concerns about the overseas AI bubble. The short - term micro - demand for aluminum is still weak, and the dominant factors for non - ferrous metals are capital preference and overseas macro narratives [3]. - Alumina follows the overall trend of the non - ferrous sector, with its price trend converging in a volatile manner. The pattern of oversupply, inventory build - up, and cost collapse remains unchanged, and the mid - term strategy is to short on rallies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aluminum - **Price Movement**: Mid - week, aluminum led the non - ferrous sector, with the absolute price breaking historical highs, likely due to stock - futures linkage and ETF market arbitrage. In the second half of the week, prices dropped with the decline of the US stock market and concerns about the overseas AI bubble. In the Friday night session, the decline was relatively moderate [3]. - **Micro - demand**: As of January 29, aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 32,000 tons to 800,000 tons compared with last week. As of January 30, the spot discount in East China and South China widened significantly. The weekly output of aluminum plates, strips, and foils continued to decline, and the cumulative year - to - date output in 2026 decreased by 0.15%. The operating rate of aluminum profiles also declined, and the processing fee of aluminum rods continued to fall to a record low [3]. 3.2 Alumina - **Price and Inventory**: Alumina prices fluctuated and converged. On Friday night, prices rose, possibly due to position - closing in other sectors and short - covering in the AO variety. As of January 30, the spot price showed a mild decline, and the inventory continued to build up. The ALD full - scale social inventory reached 5.114 million tons on January 29, an increase of 55,000 tons from the previous week [4]. - **Supply and Cost**: The weekly output of alumina decreased slightly. Some alumina enterprises in the north and south entered the maintenance period this week, and some enterprises planned to cut production in February to reduce supply pressure. Low - cost imported ore will arrive at ports in mid - to - late February, and some enterprises plan to adjust the ore application ratio to control costs [4]. 3.3 Trading - **Price Difference**: The spot premium of A00 aluminum and alumina weakened this week. The average spot premium of SMM A00 aluminum changed from - 150 yuan/ton to - 210 yuan/ton, and the average spot premium of Shandong alumina to the current month changed from - 153 yuan/ton to - 207 yuan/ton [7]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the main Shanghai aluminum contract decreased slightly, while the trading volume increased significantly. The open interest of the main alumina contract decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and the trading volume increased slightly [14]. - **Open Interest - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - inventory ratio of the main Shanghai aluminum contract declined, and that of alumina decreased slightly and was at a historically low level [20]. 3.4 Inventory - **Bauxite**: As of January 30, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 309,300 tons compared with last week. As of December, the port inventory and port inventory days of Chinese bauxite showed an increase. The bauxite inventory of alumina enterprises also increased in December. The port shipping volume of Guinea and Australia decreased slightly, while the sea - floating inventory increased slightly. The shipping volume from different ports showed a differentiated trend, and the arrival volume increased [25][30][31]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory of alumina continued to build up, with an increase of 78,000 tons compared with last week. The factory inventory decreased, while the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory, port inventory, and platform/in - transit inventory increased [47]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of January 29, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 32,000 tons to 800,000 tons, showing a build - up this week [54]. - **Processed Products**: The spot inventory and factory inventory of aluminum rods increased this week. As of December, the finished - product and raw - material inventory ratios of SMM aluminum profiles increased slightly, while the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plates, strips, and foils decreased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio increased slightly [58][61]. 3.5 Production - **Bauxite**: In December, the domestic bauxite supply increased slightly. The SMM - caliber domestic bauxite output increased slightly. Imported bauxite was an important factor driving the growth of the total supply. The production of bauxite in different provinces showed a differentiated trend, with some increasing and some decreasing [66][67]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate of alumina remained stable. As of January 30, the national operating capacity of alumina was 94.1 million tons, a decrease of 400,000 tons from the previous week. The weekly output of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina was 1.83 million tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from the previous week. The supply - side situation remained loose [72]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of December, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, but the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. As of January 29, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum was 858,900 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons from the previous week. The proportion of molten aluminum decreased seasonally [78]. - **Downstream Processing**: The production of recycled aluminum rods increased by 2,800 tons this week, the output of aluminum rods decreased by 15,800 tons, and the output of aluminum plates, strips, and foils decreased by 1,400 tons. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises decreased by 1.5%, and the operating rates of different sectors such as aluminum plates, strips, and foils also declined [84][85]. 3.6 Profit - **Alumina**: In December, the profit of alumina continued to decline slightly. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina in the Steel Union caliber was 135.4 yuan/ton. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased slightly, while that in Guangxi was relatively better [92]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [107]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased by 50 yuan/ton this week, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [108]. 3.7 Consumption - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum narrowed. In December 2025, the total export volume of aluminum products decreased slightly, by 30,000 tons compared with the previous month. The export profit and loss of aluminum processed products showed a differentiated trend [117][119][121]. - **Absolute Consumption Volume**: The transaction area of commercial housing was at a low level, and the monthly output of automobiles decreased compared with the previous month [122].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Aluminum is in a high - level consolidation phase. Attention should be paid to buying points after a pullback. The importance of position management is increasing, and the use of options for risk hedging is necessary. The risk points for the peak are related to overseas AI - related equity asset performance and downstream processing profit indicators. The main logic for the peak inflection point of the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sector still depends on overseas macro narratives. Short - term micro - demand shows differences, with inventory accumulation and changes in spot premiums [3]. - Alumina's spot and futures are moving down in resonance, and there may still be room for decline. The fundamental driving force is downward, and as supply continues to increase and spot surplus deepens, a negative feedback loop may form. Spot prices are falling, and inventory is accumulating [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Price Difference**: This week, the A00 spot premium weakened, while the alumina spot premium strengthened. The average SMM A00 aluminum premium changed from - 100 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium changed from - 25 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton. The Shandong alumina premium to the current month changed from - 243 yuan/ton to - 158 yuan/ton, and the Henan alumina premium to the current month changed from - 148 yuan/ton to - 78 yuan/ton [7]. - **Monthly Price Difference**: The monthly price difference of Shanghai aluminum near - term contracts has increased volatility [10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased slightly, and the trading volume increased slightly. The open interest of the alumina main contract decreased significantly but remained at a historical high, and the trading volume of the alumina main contract decreased significantly [12]. - **Open Interest - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - inventory ratio of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased, while that of alumina increased slightly and is at a historically low level [17]. 3.2 Inventory - **Bauxite**: As of January 16, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 988,400 tons week - on - week. As of December, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises in China increased by 500,000 tons month - on - month. The port shipping volume of Guinea increased by 824,000 tons week - on - week, and the Australian port shipping volume decreased by 320,700 tons week - on - week. The sea - floating inventory of Guinea increased by 1,151,300 tons week - on - week, and that of Australia increased by 256,600 tons week - on - week. As of January 9, the outbound volume of bauxite from Australian ports and Guinean ports increased, while the arrival volume decreased [21][27][28]. - **Alumina**: This week, the total alumina inventory continued to increase by 75,000 tons week - on - week. The in - plant inventory remained flat, the alumina inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants increased, the port inventory decreased, and the platform/on - the - way inventory increased. As of January 16, the national alumina inventory was 4.988 million tons, an increase of 53,000 tons week - on - week [45][52]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of January 15, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 31,000 tons to 749,000 tons, showing inventory accumulation this week [53]. - **Aluminum Rods**: This week, the spot inventory and in - plant inventory of downstream aluminum rods increased [57]. - **Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Foil**: As of December, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles increased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio increased slightly. The finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plate - foil decreased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio increased slightly [59]. 3.3 Production - **Bauxite**: In December, the domestic bauxite supply increased slightly. The SMM - caliber domestic bauxite production increased slightly. The Shanxi bauxite production increased slightly, the Henan bauxite production showed different trends in different calibers, and the Guangxi bauxite production also showed different trends in different calibers [64][65]. - **Alumina**: The alumina capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of January 16, the total operating capacity of national alumina was 95.6 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons week - on - week. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 1.853 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons week - on - week, and the supply - side fundamentals remained loose [70]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of December, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, but the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. As of January 15, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum was 857,200 tons, an increase of 100 tons week - on - week. The aluminum - water ratio decreased seasonally, and the ingot - casting volume is expected to increase [76]. - **Downstream Processing**: This week, the production of recycled aluminum rods decreased by 60 tons week - on - week, the production of aluminum rods decreased by 9,700 tons week - on - week, and the production of aluminum plate - foil decreased by 2,300 tons week - on - week. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises increased by 0.1%. The operating rate of aluminum plate - strip increased by 1 percentage point, and the operating rate of aluminum foil increased by 0.7 percentage point. The operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased by 0.9 percentage point, the operating rate of aluminum cables remained unchanged, the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloys remained unchanged, and the operating rate of primary aluminum alloys increased by 0.2 percentage point [81][82][87]. 3.4 Profit - **Alumina**: In December, the alumina profit continued to decline slightly. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina was 135.4 yuan/ton. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased slightly, while the profit in Guangxi was better due to relatively firm cost [89]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum profit remained at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies increased uncertainty and interfered with market expectations [104]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 80 yuan/ton week - on - week, but the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [105]. 3.5 Consumption - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum increased [114]. - **Export**: In November 2025, the total export volume of aluminum products increased by 38,500 tons month - on - month. The export demand for aluminum products was hindered by trade - policy adjustments, and the export profit and loss of aluminum processed products showed differentiation [116][118]. - **Absolute Consumption Volume**: The transaction area of commercial housing was at a low level, and the automobile production decreased month - on - month [119].