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东吴基金陈伟斌:AI估值体系或将被重塑 液冷或是AI投资的下一个“胜负手”
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-17 06:40
Group 1: AI Server Liquid Cooling - The liquid cooling industry is expected to replicate the performance of optical modules in the next two years, potentially becoming the fastest-growing segment in the AI industry chain [1][2] - Liquid cooling is currently in its nascent stage, with a projected penetration rate of nearly 100% for overseas NV chain servers by next year, indicating rapid growth [2] - The growth rate for AI server liquid cooling could reach 500% next year, significantly outpacing other segments like optical modules and PCBs [1][2] Group 2: Market Perception and Valuation - The market's current pricing of AI computing power reflects a fundamental misjudgment, applying a cyclical stock valuation framework to a technology revolution [1] - Nvidia's guidance of a 40%-50% compound annual growth rate suggests that AI computing power could justify valuations of 40-50 times earnings, indicating a potential revaluation of the sector [1] - The overall AI industry is expected to maintain growth until 2030, driven by both increased penetration rates and higher unit value [2] Group 3: Innovation in Pharmaceuticals - The Chinese innovative drug sector is in a multi-year upward trend, driven by the "BD going overseas" strategy, with significant opportunities arising from the expiration of patents for major multinational pharmaceutical companies [3][4] - The strength of the research pipeline for Chinese innovative drug companies is improving, particularly in the PD-1/VEGF and PD-1/IL-2 dual antibody fields [3] - Current valuations in the innovative drug sector are considered normal, without signs of a bubble, contrasting sharply with the exaggerated valuations seen during the 2019-2021 bull market [4][5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The optical module sector may enter a phase of consolidation after a significant rally, while liquid cooling is positioned to take over as the next key investment opportunity in AI [5] - The innovative drug sector is expected to resume its upward momentum as key catalysts, such as global academic conferences, approach [5]