科研服务 CXO 板块延续高景气度，2026 年进一步兑现业 绩 20260108 摘要 降。这些由下游客户需求传导带动收入和利润不断提升的公司值得关注，如皓 元医药、百普赛斯、百奥赛图、药康生物等。此外，一部分伴随大客户及大订 单落地而持续超预期增长的公司，如奥普迈、纳微科技、赛分等，也表现亮眼。 生命科学服务企业受益于上行周期，国产企业产品品质提升，逐步实现 国产替代，并在海外市场占据份额，营收和市值虽小，但成长性高。 2025 年申科板块表现强劲，创新药 BD 出海带动产业链受益，上游表现 优于医药整体。 科研服务业绩在 2026 年预计持续强劲，受益于美国降息、投融资改善 及 2025 年 BD 带来的研发投入。2025 年前三季度，16 家科研服务公 司收入和利润增速分别为高个位数和双位数，单三季度收入和利润增速 分别为双位数和 50%，毛利率明显提升。 试剂、模式动物业务及填料耗材等细分板块在 2025 年利润水平恢复较 快，毛利率提升，销售费用率下降。皓元医药、百普赛斯、百奥赛图、 药康生物等公司值得关注，奥普迈、纳微科技、赛分等伴随大客户及大 订单落地而超预期增长。 海外市场受益于投融资恢复、 ...

A股三大股指1月5日集体高开。早盘高开高走放量上涨，沪指重返4000点之上。午后两市继续放量上攻，涨幅进一步扩大。 从盘面上看，脑机接口、AI应用、商业航天、存储器、创新药概念股掀涨停潮，保险股表现抢眼。海南自贸区、稳定币题材出现调整。 至收盘，上证综指涨1.38%，报4023.42点；科创50指数涨4.41%，报1403.41点；深证成指涨2.24%，报13828.63点；创业板指涨2.85%，报3294.55 点。 银行股逆市下挫，浦发银行（600000）跌超4%，中信银行（601998）、工商银行（601398）、农业银行（601288）、瑞丰银行（601528）、南京 银行（601009）等跌幅靠前。 据大智慧VIP，两市及北交所共有185只股票涨幅在9%以上，17只股票跌幅在9%以上。 医药生物大幅走高，银行股逆市下挫 在板块方面，医药生物大幅走高，三博脑科（301293）、博拓生物（688767）、冠昊生物（300238）、翔宇医疗（688626）、乐普医疗 （300003）等近40股涨停或涨超10%。 开源证券指出，受益于行业需求回暖，签单及业绩超预期增长，医药研发外包服务板块在2025年迎来戴 ...

流动性方面，港股创新药50ETF盘中换手9.25%，成交2.73亿元。资金流入方面，拉长时间看，港股创 新药50ETF近19个交易日内，合计"吸金"2.31亿元。 2026年A股首个交易日，三大指数集体上涨，医疗服务、CRO等板块概念涨幅居前。截至 10:36，中证 港股通创新药指数(931250)强势上涨3.86%，成分股昭衍新药上涨11.32%，泰格医药上涨7.07%，科伦博 泰生物-B上涨6.69%，云顶新耀、信达生物等个股跟涨。港股创新药50ETF(513780)上涨5.30%。拉长时 间看，截至2025年12月31日，港股创新药50ETF近1年累计上涨67.18%。 港股创新药50ETF（513780）跟踪中证港股通创新药指数，可T+0交易，指数囊括药明生物、信达生 物、百济神州等港股创新药龙头，该指数生物制品+化学制药权重占比近90%，助力高效布局高弹性港 股创新药板块。该基金还设置了场外联接基金（A类：023597，C类：023598），场外投资者可保持关 注。 从估值层面来看，港股创新药50ETF跟踪的中证港股通创新药指数最新市盈率（PE-TTM）仅31.23倍， 处于近3年16.75%的分位 ...

今年创新药企业频繁宣布BD交易，但从三季度以来，原本利好的消息却不被二级市场买账。 最近一周，BD交易再掀一个小高潮。12月22日，先声药业（02096.HK）宣布其附属公司江苏再明与Ipsen于12月19日签订独家授权许可协议。同日，荃信生 物（02509.HK）发布公告，12月19日，其与Windward Bio Group AG附属公司LE2025 Therapeutics AG就公司自主研发的QX027N达成授权合作。 12月21日，加科思（01167.HK）宣布，已就其自主研发的泛KRAS抑制剂JAB-23E73与阿斯利康达成合作协议。12月15日-12月17日，长春高新 （000661.SZ）、翰森制药（03692.HK）、和铂医药（02142.HK）也相继发布与海外企业BD交易消息。 消息发布后，12月22日，加科思股价下跌13.58%，先声药业股价下滑1.98%，荃信生物股价则上涨1.44%。 12月17日消息发布后，铂医药股价下跌1.15%，翰森制药股价下跌0.51%。12月16日，长春高新股价则随着消息的发布上涨3.77%。 中国创新药行业在2025年迎来BD交易大爆发，密集的BD交易从5 ...

恒生创新药ETF（159316，联接A/C：024328/024329） 医药ETF（512010，联接A/C：001344/007883） 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 中国创新药 License out 交易规模持续增长：截至2025 年11月累计交易价值达1244亿美元、同比2024 年 增长150%，根据和铂医药公告，公司与BMS达成全球战略合作及授权协议，若推进所有潜在项目，公 司可获最高10.35亿美元的开发及商业里程碑付款以及分级特许权使用费，持续验证中国创新药行业高 质量发展状态。 海外政策不确定性降低：12月18日，美国参议院通过修订版《生物安全法案》的2026财年国防授权法案 （NDAA)，预计很快在众议院获得通过，随后提交白宫由总统签署生效。本次法案未具体点任何一家 中国生物技术公司、改由白宫相关部门一年内制定受限名单的修订内容，为具备全球合作潜力的创新药 企营造更可预期的出海环境。 重点产品 ...

Group 1 - The public fund issuance market remains active, with 38 new funds expected to launch this week, maintaining a high level of activity for two consecutive weeks [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has launched the HKEX Technology 100 Index, which tracks the performance of the 100 largest technology companies listed on the exchange, covering six major innovation themes [2] - The robot industry is seeing a surge in companies preparing for IPOs in Hong Kong, with 34 companies currently awaiting hearings [3] Group 2 - The trend of large-scale wind turbine development is slowing down, with manufacturers focusing on a "main unit + core components" model to enhance product reliability and competitiveness [3] - Companies are accelerating their investments in sodium-ion batteries due to the soaring prices of lithium carbonate, with the sodium battery industry entering a critical window for technological breakthroughs and commercial applications [5] - The Chinese innovative drug sector has seen outbound business development (BD) deals exceed $100 billion in 2025, marking a historical high [5] Group 3 - IBM announced its acquisition of data streaming platform Confluent for $11 billion, with the deal expected to close by mid-2026 [6] - Shanghai Xiba has announced that two of its executives are facing administrative penalties for suspected insider trading [9] - Weidi Co. plans to acquire a 51% stake in Jiangsu Jiuxing Precision Technology Co., aiming to gain control of the company [10]

Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of new industries driven by new productivity in 2025, highlighting the shift in investment paradigms in the capital market [1] - It emphasizes the importance of understanding macroeconomic factors, technological cycles, and demographic changes as key drivers for industry growth [2][3] Group 1: Macro Drivers - Two macro factors are identified as crucial for industry growth: technological advancements and demographic changes [1] - The technological cycle is seen as the core engine for emerging industries, with significant advancements expected in AI and other technologies within the next 5-10 years [2] - Demographic shifts, particularly the transition from a labor-age population to an aging society, are reshaping consumption patterns and creating new market opportunities [3] Group 2: Signal Identification - Investment in emerging industries requires early positioning based on three mapping signals: policy, overseas trends, and primary market dynamics [4] - Policy signals are critical, with a focus on systematic layouts from top-level decisions and industry guidelines [4] - Overseas signals, such as stock price movements of leading companies and significant technological events, are essential for understanding market trends [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Three types of penetration rate indicators are used to assess industry health: industry penetration rate, overseas penetration rate, and supply chain controllability [6] - The industry penetration rate indicates growth acceleration, with AI expected to see significant global penetration by 2025 [6] - The overseas penetration rate reflects competitiveness in international markets, with a notable increase in the share of innovative drug transactions [7] Group 4: Practical Indicators - Timing investments in emerging industries is crucial, utilizing buy, diffusion, and risk indicators to enhance decision-making accuracy [8] - Buy indicators include product search interest and competitive rankings, while diffusion indicators focus on capital expenditures and order activity [8] - Risk indicators assess market concentration and trading sentiment to mitigate potential volatility [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Innovent Biologics achieved product revenue exceeding RMB 3.3 billion in Q3 2025, representing a 40% year-on-year growth driven by oncology and comprehensive pipeline advancements [1] - Innovent Biologics has entered into a licensing agreement with Takeda Pharmaceutical, potentially worth up to $11.4 billion [1] - As of now, Innovent Biologics has obtained approval for 16 products, with 2 under review by the National Medical Products Administration of China, and 4 new drug molecules in Phase 3 or pivotal clinical studies, along with approximately 15 new drug candidates in clinical research [1] Group 2 - The approval of the second indication for Ma Shidu peptide for diabetes by the National Medical Products Administration of China further enhances access to innovative treatment options for a broader patient population [1] - The Hang Seng Medical ETF (159892) tracks the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index and heavily invests in leading biotech companies like Innovent Biologics and BeiGene, which are expected to benefit from the acceleration of innovative drug exports and the approaching performance inflection point in the biotech sector [1]

Group 1 - Multiple domestic pharmaceutical companies, including Innovent Biologics and Hengrui Medicine, announced business development (BD) deals within two days, indicating a trend of increased collaboration in the industry [1] - Innovent Biologics entered a global strategic partnership with Takeda Pharmaceutical, receiving an upfront payment of $1.2 billion, including a $100 million strategic equity investment, with potential milestone payments up to $10.2 billion [1] - Despite these positive developments, the Hong Kong innovation drug index fell over 1%, with a decline of more than 15% since October 8, contrasting sharply with previous market reactions to BD announcements [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that liquidity issues and valuation pressures from previous gains are causing a slowdown in the innovation drug sector, with the market showing less enthusiasm for BD transaction amounts [2][3] - The total amount of external licensing for Chinese innovative drugs surpassed $100 billion for the year, marking a historical milestone [2] - The sentiment in the pharmaceutical sector has returned to a more comfortable trading range, awaiting capital inflows [3] Group 3 - The focus remains on the international competitiveness of domestic innovative drugs and the trend of BD transactions abroad [5] - The U.S. pharmaceutical market has experienced volatility due to various pressures from the Trump administration, including threats of high tariffs on drugs [6] - Despite these pressures, the potential negative impacts on the industry are expected to be limited, with the narrative logic of BD transactions remaining intact [7] Group 4 - The upcoming quarterly reports are anticipated to show performance improvements, alongside the continued rollout of BD transactions [4] - The sentiment in the A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has dropped below the historical median, indicating a potential for recovery as market conditions stabilize [8]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a pullback on October 22, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (520880) declining by 2.74% despite a significant $11.4 billion business development deal involving Innovent Biologics [1][3] - The trading volume for the ETF reached 374 million HKD, a 30% increase from the previous period, indicating strong buying interest [1] - Innovent Biologics announced a strategic partnership with Takeda Pharmaceutical worth $11.4 billion, marking a record for business development transactions in China's innovative drug sector [3] Market Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (520880) opened high but closed lower, losing its 5-day moving average [1] - Major stocks within the ETF saw mixed performance, with Innovent Biologics down 1.96% despite high trading volume of 6.288 billion HKD, while other significant stocks like CSPC Pharmaceutical and BeiGene fell over 2% [1][3] Investment Trends - The ETF is designed to track the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Selective Index, which focuses exclusively on innovative drug development companies, with over 70% of its holdings in large-cap leaders [3][4] - The index has shown strong performance, with a year-to-date increase of 108.14%, outperforming other innovative drug indices [4][5] - Analysts suggest that the recent surge in business development transactions may alleviate market concerns and highlight the long-term growth potential of China's innovative drug sector [3]