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中加基金固收周报|为春季躁动积极准备
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-25 08:55
Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance last week with a slight increase in trading volume [4][14] Macro Data Analysis - In November, industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year (expected 5.0%), while retail sales grew by 1.3% (expected 2.9%). Cumulative service retail sales rose by 5.4%, and fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% (expected -2.2%) [4][17] - Investment in broad infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate was reported at 0.1%, 1.9%, and -15.9% respectively. Manufacturing investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.8 percentage points to 1.9% [4][17] - Service consumption outperformed goods consumption, with the gap between the two expanding to 1.3% in November. Service consumption benefited from policies like consumer loan interest subsidies, while goods retail was affected by a decrease in trade-in multipliers and high base effects from 2024 [4][17] Stock Market Strategy Outlook - The market experienced a rebound last week, with technology sectors remaining the core focus. Short-term expectations indicate a continued high-level fluctuation centered around technology, with institutional fund activity remaining low as year-end approaches [20][21] - In the medium term, technology growth is still viewed as a favorable direction, with the economic fundamentals and technology narratives remaining unchanged. The current low-interest environment supports ongoing thematic opportunities [21][22] - Long-term perspectives indicate that the ongoing U.S.-China competition has established a baseline, with international capital markets beginning to question the U.S. government's governance capabilities. However, the credit of the U.S. dollar remains intact, and there are no significant risks associated with U.S. Treasury bonds [22][23] Industry Perspectives - For defensive dividend sectors, it is recommended to maintain allocation ratios, with increased insurance capital entering the market and important meetings stabilizing economic expectations [24] - In aggressive sectors, technology remains a key focus due to the ongoing AI competition. Despite skepticism in the U.S. market regarding AI's economic viability, positive catalysts in the tech sector continue to emerge [24] - Attention is also directed towards domestic demand and high prosperity sectors, with low valuation domestic demand and high prosperity directions expected to stand out in the absence of a main market narrative [24]