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每日投资策略-20250508
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-05-08 02:34
Macro Economic Overview - To counter the impact of tariffs, China has introduced a comprehensive monetary policy package aimed at boosting the stock and real estate markets. This policy will moderately ease liquidity and credit supply, encouraging positive market sentiment, although it cannot fully offset the economic impact of tariffs [2] - The report anticipates that the tariff impacts could reduce China's GDP and CPI growth rates by 1 percentage point and 0.2 percentage points, respectively. It is expected that GDP growth will slow from 5.4% in Q1 2025 to 4.5% in Q2, with a slight rebound to 4.7% in the second half of the year, resulting in an annual growth rate of 4.8% [5] Industry Insights - In the equipment manufacturing sector, global machinery manufacturers are assessing the impact of US tariffs, with most expecting effects to become apparent starting in Q3. Companies like Komatsu are predicted to face significant challenges due to these tariffs [5] - The Chinese insurance industry is set to see an acceleration of long-term investments as regulatory bodies announced a series of financial policies. This includes expanding the scope of long-term investment trials and adjusting risk factors for stock investments, potentially injecting over 150 billion yuan into the market [5] Stock Recommendations - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 23.00, representing a 37% upside potential [6] - Xpeng Motors (XPEV US) is also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 28.00, indicating a 46% upside [6] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 40.61, suggesting a 24% upside [6] - Alibaba (BABA US) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 157.00, reflecting a 27% upside potential [6] - Tencent (700 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 625.00, indicating a 28% upside [6]