Global Market Overview - Major global stock markets showed positive performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,903, up 1.61% for the day and 24.14% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.29%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 23.57% [1] - The US markets experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 1.20% and the S&P 500 down 0.98% [1] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 2.00%, with a year-to-date rise of 27.05% [2] - The Hang Seng Property Index rose by 1.35%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 22.31% [2] Chinese Stock Market Insights - The Chinese stock market saw gains, particularly in healthcare, materials, and information technology sectors, while real estate and consumer sectors lagged [3] - Southbound capital inflow reached a four-month high of 23.43 billion HKD [3] - A forecast for the A-share market indicated strong performance for upstream companies in non-ferrous metals and chemicals due to rising product prices [3] Company Analysis: Yum China - Yum China maintained its full-year guidance, with Q2 sales increasing by 4% to 2.79 billion USD and net profit rising by 1% to 215 million USD, aligning with market expectations [4] - The company reported a gross margin of 70.9% and an operating profit margin of 10.9%, both exceeding market expectations [4] - The management set a conservative same-store sales growth target for the second half of the year, citing macroeconomic instability and cautious consumer behavior [5] Company Analysis: China Tower - China Tower's H1 2025 results met expectations, with revenue growing by 2.8% year-on-year to 49.6 billion RMB and net profit increasing by 8.0% to 5.8 billion RMB [5] - The net profit margin improved to 11.6%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [5] - The company announced an interim dividend of 0.13 RMB per share, enhancing shareholder returns [5] Focus Stocks - Geely Automobile (175 HK) rated as "Buy" with a target price of 24.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 32% [6] - Tencent (700 HK) also rated as "Buy" with a target price of 660.00 HKD, suggesting a 17% upside [6] - Alibaba (BABA US) rated as "Buy" with a target price of 141.20 USD, indicating a potential increase of 21% [6]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,903, up 1.61% for the day and 24.14% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.29%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 23.57% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.62%, with a year-to-date performance of 7.93% [1] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index gained 2.00% for the day, with a year-to-date increase of 27.05% [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index rose by 1.35%, showing a year-to-date performance of 22.31% [2] - The Hang Seng Utilities Index had a modest increase of 0.53%, with a year-to-date performance of 3.93% [2] Chinese Market Insights - Chinese stocks saw gains, with healthcare, materials, and information technology sectors leading the way [3] - Southbound capital inflow reached a net buy of HKD 23.43 billion, marking a four-month high [3] - A-shares in the banking and steel sectors showed significant gains, while biopharmaceuticals and computers lagged [3] Company Analysis: Yum China - Yum China maintained its full-year guidance, with Q2 sales up 4% year-on-year to USD 2.79 billion, and net profit up 1% to USD 215 million [4] - The company reported a gross margin of 70.9% and an operating profit margin of 10.9%, both exceeding market expectations [4] - The management set a conservative same-store sales growth target for the second half of the year, citing macroeconomic instability [5] Company Analysis: China Tower - China Tower's H1 2025 results met expectations, with revenue growth of 2.8% year-on-year to RMB 49.6 billion and net profit growth of 8.0% to RMB 5.8 billion [5] - The EBITDA increased by 3.6% to RMB 34.2 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 69.0% [5] - The company announced an interim dividend of RMB 0.13 per share, enhancing shareholder returns [5] Focus Stocks - Geely Automobile (175 HK) rated as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 24.00, indicating a potential upside of 32% [6] - Tencent (700 HK) also rated as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 660.00, suggesting a 17% upside [6] - Alibaba (BABA US) rated as "Buy" with a target price of USD 141.20, indicating a potential increase of 21% [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the unexpected performance of gold prices during the recent Israel-Iran conflict, where geopolitical tensions did not lead to the anticipated rise in gold prices, contrary to historical trends [1][2][3] - The London spot gold price briefly reached $3450 per ounce at the onset of the conflict but subsequently fell to around $3330, marking a cumulative decline of 1.87% [1] - The lack of a significant increase in geopolitical risk premium for gold during this conflict is noted as an anomaly compared to historical reactions to similar geopolitical events [1][3] Group 2 - Citibank Research has significantly lowered its three-month gold price target from $3500 to $3150, reflecting a 10% decrease [4] - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook, suggesting that if geopolitical conflicts or policy uncertainties escalate, gold prices could still challenge $3500 or higher [5] - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings are still far from the peak levels seen in 2011, indicating that gold has not yet reached a bubble state [5][6] Group 3 - Central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves, with one-third of 75 global central banks planning to do so in the next one to two years, which could support gold prices [7] - Uncertainties surrounding tariff policies may lead to inflationary pressures, with the potential for stagflation risks increasing, which could provide opportunities for gold investment [8] - The dollar's credit crisis is a concern, as the dollar index has dropped by 9.72% this year, prompting investors to shift funds from dollar assets to gold and other safe-haven assets [9] Group 4 - The gold ETF (518800) has seen its scale grow to 18.1 billion, with an increase of over 11 billion this year, indicating active trading and interest in gold investments [10] - For retail investors, gold ETFs may offer better liquidity and preservation compared to physical gold or jewelry, reflecting the overall trend and investment value in the gold market [10]

Economic Indicators - The US Services PMI unexpectedly contracted in May, dropping from 51.6 in April to 49.9, below market expectations of 52[2] - The Manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.2 to 48.5, also below the expected 49.5, indicating a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector[2] - The New Orders Index for services plummeted from 52.3 to 46.4, reflecting a significant decline in demand[2] Inflation and Price Pressures - The Prices Index for services surged from 65.1 to 68.7, marking the highest expansion rate since late 2022, indicating inflationary pressures[2] - The Manufacturing Prices Index remained high at 69.4, despite a slight decrease from 69.8, suggesting persistent inflation in goods[2] Economic Growth Projections - The projected GDP growth rates for the US are expected to decline from 2.1% in Q1 to 1.8% in Q2, 1.3% in Q3, and 1% in Q4 of this year[2] - The PCE inflation rate is anticipated to rise from 2.5% in Q1 to 3% in Q3 and 2.9% in Q4[2] Policy Environment - The policy environment is expected to remain unfavorable in the next three months, with the White House likely to continue pressuring trade partners and the Federal Reserve possibly pausing interest rate cuts[1] - Improvement in the policy environment is anticipated in Q4, with potential agreements with major trading partners and a return to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[1]

Group 1 - PIMCO warns that the likelihood of a recession is at its highest in years, emphasizing the potential underestimation of the Trump administration's commitment to high tariffs [1][2] - The current 10% tariffs and specific tariffs on industries such as automotive, steel, and aluminum have negatively impacted the U.S. stock market and certain corporate bonds [2] - Ivascyn believes that investors mistakenly think tariffs will be fully lifted or softened, indicating uncertainty about returning to pre-April 2 conditions [2] Group 2 - PIMCO adopts a cautious investment strategy in the corporate debt market, citing bubbles and excessive optimism [3] - The company favors high-quality investments, particularly in the mortgage market, due to strong household balance sheets [3] - Despite increasing investments in U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly short-term debt, PIMCO acknowledges the attractiveness of sovereign bonds in other markets due to U.S. market volatility and deteriorating fiscal conditions [3] Group 3 - Ivascyn highlights the potential for stagflation risks due to tariff policies, which could lead to rising prices amid economic slowdown [3][4] - The company suggests that diversifying investments into other high-quality markets globally is a prudent strategy in the current environment [3]

Macro Economic Overview - To counter the impact of tariffs, China has introduced a comprehensive monetary policy package aimed at boosting the stock and real estate markets. This policy will moderately ease liquidity and credit supply, encouraging positive market sentiment, although it cannot fully offset the economic impact of tariffs [2] - The report anticipates that the tariff impacts could reduce China's GDP and CPI growth rates by 1 percentage point and 0.2 percentage points, respectively. It is expected that GDP growth will slow from 5.4% in Q1 2025 to 4.5% in Q2, with a slight rebound to 4.7% in the second half of the year, resulting in an annual growth rate of 4.8% [5] Industry Insights - In the equipment manufacturing sector, global machinery manufacturers are assessing the impact of US tariffs, with most expecting effects to become apparent starting in Q3. Companies like Komatsu are predicted to face significant challenges due to these tariffs [5] - The Chinese insurance industry is set to see an acceleration of long-term investments as regulatory bodies announced a series of financial policies. This includes expanding the scope of long-term investment trials and adjusting risk factors for stock investments, potentially injecting over 150 billion yuan into the market [5] Stock Recommendations - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 23.00, representing a 37% upside potential [6] - Xpeng Motors (XPEV US) is also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 28.00, indicating a 46% upside [6] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 40.61, suggesting a 24% upside [6] - Alibaba (BABA US) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 157.00, reflecting a 27% upside potential [6] - Tencent (700 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 625.00, indicating a 28% upside [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the fluctuating gold prices influenced by recent U.S. economic data and policy changes, particularly regarding tariffs on automobiles [1][2][3] - Gold prices are currently experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations, trading around $3315.16 per ounce, with a recent drop of 0.8% [1][2] - The market is awaiting key economic data releases, including U.S. GDP and PCE data, which are expected to significantly impact gold's future trajectory [2][3] Group 2 - The recent softening of the U.S. government's stance on automobile tariffs has pressured gold prices, while the dollar has rebounded [1][2] - Despite short-term pressures, gold is still viewed as being in an upward trend due to potential declines in real yields under the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy [2][3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a wide-ranging consolidation phase, with significant resistance at $3323-$3325 and support at $3270-$3275 [3][5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The current coke market has no obvious fundamental contradictions, but the seasonal demand improvement is approaching an end, and the demand sustainability is questionable. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. - There are still stagflation risks and concerns, which are beneficial to gold. The short - term upward momentum of gold is insufficient, and the downside space is also limited. A mid - term high - level shock with a slightly bullish bias is appropriate [1]. - The demand for iron ore is good, but the supply remains high, and there are concerns about the demand reaching its peak. The ore price is expected to remain in a low - level shock [3]. - The demand for steel is tepid, the steel mills have no signs of centralized production cuts, the inventory pressure is not large, and the raw fuel prices fluctuate slightly. The short - term steel price will fluctuate narrowly [3]. - There is still an expectation of monetary easing, but the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is imminent, and the bond market supply will increase. The bond market may fluctuate more, and a mid - term shock approach is appropriate [4]. - In the short term, the 09 contract of live pigs can wait for a pullback to go long. In the long - term, the live pig price will fluctuate strongly. Farmers can choose to sell and hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [4]. - The palm oil production continues to grow, lacks news support, and follows the trend of competing oils. The short - term operation suggestion is to sell short on rallies, and the downside space is limited [5]. - The price of domestic soybeans is relatively high, and the auction restrains the rapid price increase in the short term. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long briefly [5]. - The market is waiting for the release of the US first - quarter data. Before the Fed's interest rate cut is realized, the probability of a trend - like market for silver is low [6]. - Concerns about OPEC+ production increase and unclear trade relations between major economies put pressure on oil prices. The oil market has many uncertainties, and short - term trading is advisable [7]. - PX has entered the maintenance season. If crude oil stabilizes, PX is expected to rebound. PTA follows the crude oil fluctuation, and short - term trading is advisable [8]. - The methanol 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or sell short on rallies [9]. - The soda ash 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or sell short on rallies [10]. - The caustic soda 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - The natural rubber market is likely to continue the weak consolidation trend [11]. Summaries by Commodity Coke - The average national coke profit per ton is - 9 yuan/ton. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand has increased significantly. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Gold - Stagflation risks and concerns are beneficial to gold. The short - term upward momentum is insufficient, and the mid - term is expected to fluctuate slightly bullishly at a high level [1]. Iron Ore - From April 21st to April 27th, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China increased. The demand is good, but the supply is high. The ore price is expected to remain in a low - level shock [3]. Rebar - On April 28th, the domestic steel market prices fluctuated. The steel demand is tepid, and the short - term steel price will fluctuate narrowly [3]. Treasury Bonds - There is an expectation of monetary easing, but the issuance of special treasury bonds will increase the supply. The bond market may fluctuate more, and a mid - term shock approach is appropriate [4]. Live Pigs - On April 28th, the average pork price increased by 1.3%. In the short term, the 09 contract can wait for a pullback to go long, and in the long - term, the price will fluctuate strongly [4]. Palm Oil - As of April 25th, 2025, the national palm oil commercial inventory decreased. The production is increasing, and it is recommended to sell short on rallies [5]. Soybeans - As of April 24th, 2025, the US soybean exports to China increased. The domestic soybean price is high, and it is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long briefly [5]. Silver - The market is waiting for the US first - quarter data. Before the Fed's interest rate cut is realized, the probability of a trend - like market for silver is low [6]. Crude Oil - Forecasts for oil production in the Permian Basin have been lowered. Concerns about supply and trade relations put pressure on oil prices. Short - term trading is advisable [7]. PTA - PX has entered the maintenance season. PTA follows the crude oil fluctuation, and short - term trading is advisable [8]. Methanol - The methanol price decreased slightly. The domestic methanol start - up is expected to run at a high level, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. Soda Ash - The soda ash price is stable. The start - up rate has increased slightly, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [10]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price is stable. The start - up rate is high, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10]. Rubber - The price of natural rubber is affected by supply and demand. As it enters the peak cutting season, the market may continue the weak consolidation trend [11].