本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284 号） 研究局限性和风险提示 2026 年 2 月 27 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1150.10 | 1146.480 | 22286 | 22572 | | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 1154.34 | 1151.060 | 22786 | 23029 | | | 货 | 涨跌（收盘价） | -4.24 | -4.580 | -500 | -457 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅（收盘价） | -0.37% | -0.40% | -2.19% | -1.98% | | | 场 | 持仓量 ...

2026 年 2 月 26 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1154.34 | 1151.060 | 22786 | 23029 | | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 1153.82 | 1150.500 | 22030 | 22327 | | | 货 | 涨跌（收盘价） | 0.52 | 0.560 | 756 | 702 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅（收盘价） | 0.05% | 0.05% | 3.43% | 3.14% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 100812 | 155075 | 149845 | 182667 | | | | 成交量 | 51239 | 198537 | ...

25日，现货黄金持续拉涨，盘中再次突破5200美元大关，涨超1.3%。 申银万国期货25日分析称，近期贵金属表现偏强，核心驱动源于三重逻辑：一是美国关税政策变局冲击 美元信用，美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府大规模关税政策违法，随即特朗普宣布对全球输美商品加征 10%关税，后又提高至15%。市场对美国财政可持续性的担忧和贸易政策不确定性，继续冲击美元信 用。二是假期期间伊朗局势持续紧张，地缘冲突显著提振黄金避险需求。三是滞涨风险强化黄金抗通胀 属性，美国最新数据显示通胀高于预期且经济增长放缓。 分析表示，综合来看，短期关税裁决与地缘冲突对贵金属形成共振驱动，中长期角度来看，去美元化、 地缘风险等因素将支撑黄金重回上行通道。由于工业属性与金融属性共振，短期白银有望延续震荡偏强 走势。 瑞银(UBS)分析师此前在报告中表示，尽管黄金对近期地缘政治紧张局势升级的反应相对温和，但金价 仍有进一步上涨空间。预测在未来几个月内，贵金属价格将升至6200美元/盎司，因为支撑其强劲涨势 的关键驱动因素依然存在。 ...

2.欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩：有信心通过第 20 轮对俄制裁方案。 3.伊朗副外长：德黑兰已准备好尽快与美国达成协议。 4.一位白宫官员周二表示，特朗普政府正致力于将特朗普新宣布的临时性全球关税税率从 10%提高 至 15%。特朗普对 15%关税税率的"并未改变心意"。这项根据《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条实施的 临时关税，旨在取代上周五被美国最高法院驳回的基于紧急状态法的全球性关税。这位白宫官员表 示，关于提高关税税率的具体时间尚无进一步细节。美国海关和边境保护局只能根据正式的总统行 政令或公告中发布的信息来征收关税。 2026 年 2 月 25 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1113.46 | 1110.100 | 19570 | 19782 | | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 1129.74 | 1126.120 | 20348 | 20626 | | | 货 | 涨跌（收盘价） | -16.28 | -16.020 | -778 | -844 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅（收盘价） | -1.44% | -1.42% | -3.82% | -4.09% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 92475 | 153140 | 128713 | 181220 | | | | 成交量 | 63719 | ...

Global Market Overview - Major global stock markets showed positive performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,903, up 1.61% for the day and 24.14% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.29%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 23.57% [1] - The US markets experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 1.20% and the S&P 500 down 0.98% [1] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 2.00%, with a year-to-date rise of 27.05% [2] - The Hang Seng Property Index rose by 1.35%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 22.31% [2] Chinese Stock Market Insights - The Chinese stock market saw gains, particularly in healthcare, materials, and information technology sectors, while real estate and consumer sectors lagged [3] - Southbound capital inflow reached a four-month high of 23.43 billion HKD [3] - A forecast for the A-share market indicated strong performance for upstream companies in non-ferrous metals and chemicals due to rising product prices [3] Company Analysis: Yum China - Yum China maintained its full-year guidance, with Q2 sales increasing by 4% to 2.79 billion USD and net profit rising by 1% to 215 million USD, aligning with market expectations [4] - The company reported a gross margin of 70.9% and an operating profit margin of 10.9%, both exceeding market expectations [4] - The management set a conservative same-store sales growth target for the second half of the year, citing macroeconomic instability and cautious consumer behavior [5] Company Analysis: China Tower - China Tower's H1 2025 results met expectations, with revenue growing by 2.8% year-on-year to 49.6 billion RMB and net profit increasing by 8.0% to 5.8 billion RMB [5] - The net profit margin improved to 11.6%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [5] - The company announced an interim dividend of 0.13 RMB per share, enhancing shareholder returns [5] Focus Stocks - Geely Automobile (175 HK) rated as "Buy" with a target price of 24.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 32% [6] - Tencent (700 HK) also rated as "Buy" with a target price of 660.00 HKD, suggesting a 17% upside [6] - Alibaba (BABA US) rated as "Buy" with a target price of 141.20 USD, indicating a potential increase of 21% [6]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,903, up 1.61% for the day and 24.14% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.29%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 23.57% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.62%, with a year-to-date performance of 7.93% [1] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index gained 2.00% for the day, with a year-to-date increase of 27.05% [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index rose by 1.35%, showing a year-to-date performance of 22.31% [2] - The Hang Seng Utilities Index had a modest increase of 0.53%, with a year-to-date performance of 3.93% [2] Chinese Market Insights - Chinese stocks saw gains, with healthcare, materials, and information technology sectors leading the way [3] - Southbound capital inflow reached a net buy of HKD 23.43 billion, marking a four-month high [3] - A-shares in the banking and steel sectors showed significant gains, while biopharmaceuticals and computers lagged [3] Company Analysis: Yum China - Yum China maintained its full-year guidance, with Q2 sales up 4% year-on-year to USD 2.79 billion, and net profit up 1% to USD 215 million [4] - The company reported a gross margin of 70.9% and an operating profit margin of 10.9%, both exceeding market expectations [4] - The management set a conservative same-store sales growth target for the second half of the year, citing macroeconomic instability [5] Company Analysis: China Tower - China Tower's H1 2025 results met expectations, with revenue growth of 2.8% year-on-year to RMB 49.6 billion and net profit growth of 8.0% to RMB 5.8 billion [5] - The EBITDA increased by 3.6% to RMB 34.2 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 69.0% [5] - The company announced an interim dividend of RMB 0.13 per share, enhancing shareholder returns [5] Focus Stocks - Geely Automobile (175 HK) rated as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 24.00, indicating a potential upside of 32% [6] - Tencent (700 HK) also rated as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 660.00, suggesting a 17% upside [6] - Alibaba (BABA US) rated as "Buy" with a target price of USD 141.20, indicating a potential increase of 21% [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the unexpected performance of gold prices during the recent Israel-Iran conflict, where geopolitical tensions did not lead to the anticipated rise in gold prices, contrary to historical trends [1][2][3] - The London spot gold price briefly reached $3450 per ounce at the onset of the conflict but subsequently fell to around $3330, marking a cumulative decline of 1.87% [1] - The lack of a significant increase in geopolitical risk premium for gold during this conflict is noted as an anomaly compared to historical reactions to similar geopolitical events [1][3] Group 2 - Citibank Research has significantly lowered its three-month gold price target from $3500 to $3150, reflecting a 10% decrease [4] - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook, suggesting that if geopolitical conflicts or policy uncertainties escalate, gold prices could still challenge $3500 or higher [5] - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings are still far from the peak levels seen in 2011, indicating that gold has not yet reached a bubble state [5][6] Group 3 - Central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves, with one-third of 75 global central banks planning to do so in the next one to two years, which could support gold prices [7] - Uncertainties surrounding tariff policies may lead to inflationary pressures, with the potential for stagflation risks increasing, which could provide opportunities for gold investment [8] - The dollar's credit crisis is a concern, as the dollar index has dropped by 9.72% this year, prompting investors to shift funds from dollar assets to gold and other safe-haven assets [9] Group 4 - The gold ETF (518800) has seen its scale grow to 18.1 billion, with an increase of over 11 billion this year, indicating active trading and interest in gold investments [10] - For retail investors, gold ETFs may offer better liquidity and preservation compared to physical gold or jewelry, reflecting the overall trend and investment value in the gold market [10]

Economic Indicators - The US Services PMI unexpectedly contracted in May, dropping from 51.6 in April to 49.9, below market expectations of 52[2] - The Manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.2 to 48.5, also below the expected 49.5, indicating a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector[2] - The New Orders Index for services plummeted from 52.3 to 46.4, reflecting a significant decline in demand[2] Inflation and Price Pressures - The Prices Index for services surged from 65.1 to 68.7, marking the highest expansion rate since late 2022, indicating inflationary pressures[2] - The Manufacturing Prices Index remained high at 69.4, despite a slight decrease from 69.8, suggesting persistent inflation in goods[2] Economic Growth Projections - The projected GDP growth rates for the US are expected to decline from 2.1% in Q1 to 1.8% in Q2, 1.3% in Q3, and 1% in Q4 of this year[2] - The PCE inflation rate is anticipated to rise from 2.5% in Q1 to 3% in Q3 and 2.9% in Q4[2] Policy Environment - The policy environment is expected to remain unfavorable in the next three months, with the White House likely to continue pressuring trade partners and the Federal Reserve possibly pausing interest rate cuts[1] - Improvement in the policy environment is anticipated in Q4, with potential agreements with major trading partners and a return to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[1]

Group 1 - PIMCO warns that the likelihood of a recession is at its highest in years, emphasizing the potential underestimation of the Trump administration's commitment to high tariffs [1][2] - The current 10% tariffs and specific tariffs on industries such as automotive, steel, and aluminum have negatively impacted the U.S. stock market and certain corporate bonds [2] - Ivascyn believes that investors mistakenly think tariffs will be fully lifted or softened, indicating uncertainty about returning to pre-April 2 conditions [2] Group 2 - PIMCO adopts a cautious investment strategy in the corporate debt market, citing bubbles and excessive optimism [3] - The company favors high-quality investments, particularly in the mortgage market, due to strong household balance sheets [3] - Despite increasing investments in U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly short-term debt, PIMCO acknowledges the attractiveness of sovereign bonds in other markets due to U.S. market volatility and deteriorating fiscal conditions [3] Group 3 - Ivascyn highlights the potential for stagflation risks due to tariff policies, which could lead to rising prices amid economic slowdown [3][4] - The company suggests that diversifying investments into other high-quality markets globally is a prudent strategy in the current environment [3]