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高质量发展时代公募基金行业回顾与展望
Haitong Securities International· 2025-10-30 04:01
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The development trend of public funds emphasizes equities, benchmarks, and long - term perspectives. Different types of public funds face different opportunities. For example, active equity funds will standardize benchmark indices and shift from focusing on relative rankings to excess returns; passive equity funds are experiencing the resonance of fee reduction and product innovation; fixed - income funds, especially those with "fixed - income +" products, are booming in the low - interest - rate era; and innovative products such as REITs are accelerating issuance while multi - asset allocation FOFs remain a blue ocean [2]. - The development prospect of fund companies is to return to investment research. Both large and comprehensive fund companies and small and niche ones are worth looking forward to. The industry shows a Matthew effect, and companies should choose different development strategies according to their scale. The investment research system is moving towards integration, and the back - office of fund companies may be empowered by AI [2]. - The sales environment of public funds is shifting from focusing on scale to enhancing investors' sense of gain. The sales model is changing from "emphasizing new issuance and neglecting continuous operation" to "emphasizing continuous operation and optimizing services", and the industry is undergoing ecological reshaping around investment advisory services. The establishment of institutional direct - sales platforms will test the differentiated research and service capabilities of代销 institutions [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Public Fund Development Trends: Emphasizing Equities, Benchmarks, and Long - Term Perspectives 1.1 Active Equity Funds: Standardization of Benchmark Indices and Transition from Relative Ranking to Excess Returns - **Benchmark Index Standardization**: The "Action Plan for Promoting the High - Quality Development of Public Funds" strengthens the binding effect of performance comparison benchmarks. Currently, the benchmark indices of active equity funds are mostly representative broad - based, industry - themed, and style indices. However, most funds do not strictly track the benchmarks, and the industry deviation is in the range of 0.35 - 0.75. This year, 177 funds have changed their performance comparison benchmarks, and the trend is to make them more in line with actual investments. Future benchmark design will be more representative, standardized, and closer to actual investment directions [8][12][21]. - **Serious Assessment**: The assessment should be long - term and focus on excess returns. Long - term assessment helps fund managers adhere to investment concepts, and funds with stable long - term performance have better cumulative returns and risk control. Emphasizing excess returns can tie fund managers' interests with investors and reduce tail risks. Funds that achieve positive excess returns in the long - term have better performance and risk control [24][25][33]. 1.2 Passive Equity Funds: Resonance of Fee Reduction and Product Innovation and Acceleration of the Improvement of the Characteristic Index System - **Replicating Index Funds**: The product spectrum is rich, with a significant leading - company effect. As of September 30, 2025, the total scale of stock ETFs reached 411.7167 billion yuan, and the average daily trading volume in 2025 was 1.24 billion yuan. The management fees of ETFs are relatively low, and many large - scale broad - based ETFs have reduced fees. In the future, differentiated indices may become a blue ocean, and fund companies can carry out forward - looking layout and differentiated competition [43][46][54]. - **Index - Enhanced Products**: These products have both discipline and the ability to obtain excess returns. As of June 30, 2025, the total scale of over - the - counter index - enhanced funds was 20.1028 billion yuan. They can achieve differentiated layout by diversifying tracking indices and developing enhanced ETFs, and are expected to become an important link between passive and active investments [56][60][65]. 1.3 Active Fixed - Income Funds: The Booming of "Fixed - Income +" Products in the Low - Interest - Rate Era and the Popularity of Long - Term Investment Products - In the low - interest - rate environment since 2024, the scale of "fixed - income +" funds has increased. In the first half of 2025, the scale of "fixed - income +" funds increased by 232.3 billion yuan, with the scale of stable products surpassing that of balanced products. Stable "fixed - income +" funds have lower returns but better risk control, and the dividend - low - volatility strategy is suitable for them. With regulatory encouragement and the low - interest - rate environment, "fixed - income +" products are expected to continue to grow [66][69][79]. 1.4 Passive Fixed - Income Funds: Accelerated Trend and Continuous Emergence of Innovative Products Supported by Policies - The development of fixed - income index funds has gone through several stages, including the budding, trial, accelerated growth, slow growth, and explosive growth stages. As of Q2 2025, there were 243 bond index funds with a total scale of 1.42 trillion yuan. In the future, the tool - oriented trend of bond funds will be strengthened, ETFs will play a more important role, and innovative products will continue to emerge under policy support [80][84][94]. 1.5 Innovative Products: Accelerated Issuance of REITs and Multi - Asset Allocation FOFs Remain a Blue Ocean - **REITs Products**: With policy support, the issuance of REITs products has accelerated. As of June 30, 2025, there were 75 products with a total scale of 16.4087 billion yuan. REITs have unique asset allocation attributes, such as combining stock, bond, and alternative investment characteristics, having a long - term maturity, and rich underlying asset types. They are important tools for institutional investors' asset allocation and have broad development prospects [98][101][104]. - **FOF**: FOFs are suitable carriers for multi - asset allocation. Multi - asset allocation FOFs and ETF - FOFs are still a blue ocean. Currently, the scale of multi - asset allocation FOFs accounts for a relatively low proportion of all FOFs, but with the growth of asset - allocation demand and policy support, their scale and number are expected to increase significantly [106][109][113]. 2. Fund Company Development Trends: Return to Investment Research, Both Large and Comprehensive and Small and Niche Are Worth Looking Forward To 2.1 Company Strategic Positioning Selection: Comprehensive vs. Characteristic - **Industry Pattern of Public Funds**: The industry pattern of public funds will continue to concentrate on the top. Although the concentration of China's public fund industry has not increased significantly in the past five years, it is expected to rise in the future. The concentration of equity funds is higher than that of fixed - income funds, and the development trends of the two are different [117][118][123]. - **Comprehensive Fund Companies**: Large fund companies should be positioned as comprehensive fund companies. By referring to the development paths of E Fund and China Asset Management, comprehensive fund companies should maintain their advantages in active equity products and strengthen other product lines, such as passive equity, active Hong Kong stocks, passive fixed - income, and FOF products [125][126][127]. - **Characteristic Fund Companies**: Small and medium - sized fund companies should combine their endowments and deeply cultivate their advantages to achieve characteristic development [2]. 2.2 Investment Research System Construction: Platformization and Branding - The investment research system is moving towards integration, and the key is to achieve "harmony with differences". The investment team is shifting from creating star fund managers to building the brand of the company's investment research [25]. 2.3 Back - Office of Fund Companies: AI Empowers to Improve Efficiency - The back - office of fund companies should pay attention to long - term assessment to ensure the construction of talent echelons, actively introduce employee stock ownership to play a long - term incentive mechanism, and use AI to empower the entire business chain system of funds [29]. 3. Outlook on the Sales Environment of Public Funds: From Scale to Sense of Gain 3.1 Shift from Emphasizing New Issuance to Emphasizing Continuous Operation and Improve the Service Ability for Individual Customers - Policy guidance promotes the transformation of public fund sales from "emphasizing new issuance" to "emphasizing continuous operation and service", and strengthens the customer holding experience [31]. 3.2 Investment Advisory Services Change the Sales Industry Ecosystem, and the Rise of Buyer - Side Investment Advisory and Multi - Asset Allocation - The industry is transforming to the buyer - side investment advisory model and promoting multi - asset allocation, which will reshape the sales industry ecosystem [34]. 3.3 The Establishment of Institutional Direct - Sales Platforms Is Expected, Testing the Differentiated Research and Service Capabilities of代销 Institutions - The development of direct - sales platforms will pose challenges to代销 channels.代销 institutions should strengthen their buyer - side capabilities, deepen cooperation with funds, and transform towards multi - asset allocation, long - term value, and personalized services when serving institutional investors [39]. 3.4 Outlook on the Pattern of the Public Fund Sales Environment - The sales environment of public funds may present a pattern of "the strong getting stronger", a dual - drive of "direct sales +代销", a combination of diversification and digitalization, and a new situation of high - quality development [3].