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南华贵金属日报:贵金属:铂钯冲高回落,金银维持震荡-20251128
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 02:29
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - Although in the medium to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center of precious metals. In the short - term, focus on the change in the Fed's December interest - rate cut expectations, and Fed officials' speeches are the only signal in the absence of data. Technically, pay attention to the retracement of the 60 - day moving average, and the callback is considered a medium - to - long - term opportunity to add long positions. During the US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and Friday, trading volume is expected to shrink and prices will remain volatile. [5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, precious metals generally fluctuated. Platinum and palladium opened higher on the first listing day on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, then rose and fell back, still recording certain gains. COMEX gold 2602 contract closed at $4189.6/oz, down 0.3%; COMEX silver 2603 contract closed at $53.825/oz, up 0.41%. SHFE gold 2602 contract closed at 947.16 yuan/g, up 0.14%; SHFE silver 2602 contract closed at 12525 yuan/kg, up 3.35%. [2] Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations are generally stable. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 13.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 86.9%. For January 29, the probability of unchanged rates is 9.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 67.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 23.1%. For March 19, the probability of unchanged rates is 6.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 48%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 37.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 7.7%. [3] - Long - term fund holdings: SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 1045.43 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15583.3 tons; global platinum ETFs increased by 0.0052 tons to 96.5686 tons; global palladium ETFs decreased by 0.0001 tons to 32.9165 tons. [3] - Inventory: SHFE gold inventory remained at 9.04 tons, SHFE silver inventory increased by 15.8 tons to 547 tons; as of the week ending November 21, SGX silver inventory decreased by 58.8 tons to 715.9 tons. NYMEX platinum and palladium inventories remained unchanged, with platinum at 19.1893 tons and palladium at 5.3879 tons. [3] This Week's Focus - Thursday and Friday this week are the US Thanksgiving. On Thursday, CME precious - metal futures contract trading will end early at 03:30 Beijing time on the 28th, and on Friday, it will end early at 03:45 Beijing time on the 29th. [4] Other Information - The table shows the precious - metal spot - futures price, inventory - holding, and stock - bond - commodity summary data, including the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate of various precious - metal contracts, as well as the latest values of the US dollar index, US stock indexes, oil prices, and bond yields. [6][12][19]