Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Anthropic and AWS is significantly underestimated in terms of its revenue potential, with Anthropic's API business expected to outpace OpenAI's growth and contribute substantially to AWS's revenue [3][4][7]. Group 1: Anthropic's API Business Growth - Anthropic's API revenue is projected to reach $3.9 billion by 2025, reflecting a staggering growth rate of 662% compared to OpenAI's expected growth of 80% [9][11]. - Currently, 90% of Anthropic's revenue comes from its API business, while OpenAI relies on its ChatGPT consumer products for the majority of its income [7][9]. - The anticipated revenue from Anthropic's inference business for AWS is around $1.6 billion in 2025, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) expected to surge from $1 billion at the beginning of the year to $9 billion by year-end [4][8]. Group 2: AWS's Revenue Contribution - Anthropic is estimated to contribute approximately 1% to AWS's growth in Q2 2025, which could increase to 4% with the launch of Claude 5 and existing inference revenue [3][16]. - AWS's revenue growth for Q4 is expected to exceed market expectations by about 2%, driven by Anthropic's contributions [15][16]. - AWS's share of API revenue from Anthropic is projected to be $0.9 billion, with a significant portion of this revenue coming from direct API calls [5][9]. Group 3: AI Capacity Expansion - AWS is expected to expand its AI computing capacity significantly, potentially exceeding 1 million H100 equivalent AI capacities by the end of 2025 [18][22]. - The expansion is crucial for supporting the rapid growth of Anthropic's business, especially given the increasing demand for AI services [22][25]. Group 4: Challenges in Collaboration - Despite the benefits of the partnership, there are concerns regarding the relationship between AWS and Anthropic, particularly complaints about access limitations to Anthropic models via AWS Bedrock [4][24]. - Key clients like Cursor are reportedly shifting towards OpenAI's GPT-5 API, indicating potential challenges in maintaining customer loyalty [24][25].