June 19, 2025 10:22 AM GMT Semiconductor Production Equipment | Japan US-China Decoupling and SPE Stock Picking Texas Instruments has decided on the heaviest investment in domestic legacy semiconductor production ever in light of the Trump administration's manufacturing repatriation policy. NVIDIA is to exclude China sales from guidance. We identify SPE stocks likely to benefit from ongoing global decoupling. Key Takeaways TI announces large-scale investment in US: Texas Instruments (covered by Joseph Moore ...

Core Insights - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has developed a significant AI accelerator business, but it remains small compared to Nvidia, which generated over $39 billion in revenue from its data center segment in the last quarter, while AMD's total AI accelerator revenue for 2024 is only $5 billion [1] - AMD's latest GPUs, the Instinct MI350X and MI355X, deliver four times the AI compute performance and 35 times the AI inferencing performance compared to previous models, but they do not surpass Nvidia's latest offerings [2] - AMD plans to release the MI400 series in 2026, claiming the MI400X will be ten times more powerful than the MI300X, featuring up to 432 GB of HBM4 memory and 19.6 TB/s memory bandwidth [4] - Nvidia is expected to release its Vera Rubin chips in late 2026, which will significantly enhance performance over its current generation [5] - AMD's MI400X is anticipated to outperform Nvidia's current products, but Nvidia's next-gen Rubin chips may ultimately prevail [6] - AMD is also set to launch a new rack-scale AI solution called Helios in 2026, which will include up to 72 MI400 GPUs and advanced server CPUs [7] - Despite AMD's advancements, Nvidia is likely to maintain its market leadership due to its powerful hardware and established CUDA software ecosystem [8] - The AI chip market is projected to reach $500 billion by 2028, and AMD's growth in AI chip revenue does not necessarily require it to surpass Nvidia [9] - With the upcoming MI400 series and Helios, AMD is positioned for substantial growth in AI-related revenue, although it is expected to remain in second place behind Nvidia [10]

How quickly can we stand up uh more and better chip production in the US. For sure. Look, it's a huge priority for us to get geographic diversity. It's a big priority to get um more manufacturing in the US.I think we've seen um some big strides. So, uh, the progress that's been made, um, on the silicon side, for example, in Arizona with, you know, TSMC's, um, you know, new investments as well as some of their announcements. We have some of our trips running there right now, and they look really, really good ...

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft is entering the handheld gaming console market with the launch of the ROG Xbox Ally and ROG Xbox Ally X, aiming to compete with Nintendo's recently released Switch 2 [1][2]. Group 1: Product Launch and Features - The ROG Xbox Ally handhelds will enable cross-device gameplay, allowing gamers to play "anytime, anywhere, on any device" [2]. - The ROG Xbox Ally X will feature the AMD Ryzen AI Z2 Extreme processor, while the standard ROG Xbox Ally will use the AMD Ryzen Z2 processor [4]. - The Nintendo Switch 2 utilizes a chip from NVIDIA, a leader in AI chips and GPUs, highlighting a key difference in hardware between the two consoles [4]. Group 2: Market Context and Competition - Nintendo has historically dominated the handheld market with successful consoles like the Game Boy, Nintendo DS, and Nintendo Switch [3]. - Microsoft aims to capture market share in both physical and handheld console segments, intensifying competition with Nintendo starting in 2025 [6]. - The new Microsoft handhelds are expected to launch in time for the holiday season in 2025, which is a peak shopping period for gaming consoles [5]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - Microsoft has partnered with Roblox to make its games playable natively on the new handhelds, marking a significant development for both companies [4]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Microsoft stock closed at $472.75, up 0.50%, and reached an all-time high of $473.43 during intraday trading, reflecting a 13% increase year-to-date in 2025 [6].

Core Insights - Intel's first-quarter earnings report showed flat revenue year over year at $12.7 billion, exceeding analysts' estimates by $390 million, but adjusted EPS fell 28% to $0.13, despite beating consensus forecasts by $0.13 [1][2] - For the second quarter, Intel expects revenue to decline between 3% to 13% year over year, with an adjusted EPS of zero, missing the consensus forecast of $0.07 [2][4] - Intel's market share in the x86 CPU market has significantly declined from 82.5% in Q3 2016 to 58.2% in Q2 2025, while AMD's share increased from 17.5% to 40.3% during the same period [4][5] Company Performance - Intel's annual revenue decreased from $55.87 billion in 2014 to $54.23 billion in 2024, while its stock price fell 34% over the past decade, contrasting with the S&P 500's 160% increase [7] - AMD's stock surged 3,950% during the same period, driven by strategic leadership and engineering improvements [7] Strategic Direction - New CEO Lip-Bu Tan plans to enhance engineering capabilities, develop CPUs with integrated AI features, and expand the foundry business, dismissing rumors of selling its foundries or becoming a fabless chipmaker [8][9] - Intel aims to streamline operations and divest noncore assets, including the programmable chipmaker Altera, while ramping up its 18A process node for the Panther Lake CPU launch in late 2025 [9][10] Challenges Ahead - Intel's near-term outlook remains bleak, with expectations that new chips will not significantly boost revenue or profits [10] - The company plans to lay off around 20% of its staff to cut costs and is outsourcing some production to TSMC, raising concerns about its ability to recover [10][11] - Intel faces additional challenges from tariffs, export curbs, and competition from TSMC, complicating its recovery efforts against AMD [12] Competitive Landscape - Intel's losses in mobile, discrete GPU, and core CPU markets highlight deep-rooted issues, contrasting with AMD's consistent leadership under a single CEO [13] - Despite potential optimism from contrarian investors regarding Tan's leadership, there are currently no signs of recovery for Intel against AMD in the x86 CPU market [14]