Asia Insights Global Markets Research Economics - Asia ex-Japan China: Policymaking amid a stock market rally and growth slowdown As economists we do not forecast stock markets, but we closely watch their impact on policymaking and economic activity. We believe that China's stock market rally since late September last year has been primarily driven by solid fundamentals. However, based on what previously happened, the boom has the potential to lead to a rise in irrational exuberance, an increase in leveragi ...

Core Viewpoint - Fortinet (NASDAQ: FTNT) is maintaining a buy rating despite a significant stock decline of over 25% following the release of its 2Q25 earnings report [1] Company Summary - The stock experienced a sharp decline after the earnings announcement, indicating potential market volatility and investor reaction to the financial results [1] - The company operates within the technology sector, specifically focusing on cybersecurity solutions, which are increasingly relevant in the current market landscape [1] Analyst Background - The analyst has over two decades of experience in the market, particularly in the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sectors, emphasizing risk mitigation strategies during various market cycles [1]

Core Insights - BlackSky Technology Inc. (NYSE: BKSY) reported Q2 '25 earnings, revealing a surprising revenue decline of 11.5% year-over-year [1] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for Q2 '25 was disappointing, showing a decrease of 11.5% compared to the same quarter last year [1]

Group 1 - A declining dollar benefits diversified investors, especially those with international investments [1] - Ex-US stocks have outperformed domestic stocks this year, despite the AI boom [1]

AI Impact - Microsoft's earnings confirm its position as a major beneficiary of the AI boom [1] Business Performance - Investors can find reassurance in the broader performance of Microsoft's business [1]

Breaking: Microsoft became the world's second $4 trillion company, bolstered by the AI boom https://t.co/wVODHcEI6z ...

Group 1: Housing Market Insights - The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US Home Price Index shows a significant decline in house price appreciation after a boom during COVID-19, with prices starting to fall [2] - The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB), which includes shares of 35 home builders and related companies, has shown a mixed performance, rallying in 2024 but sliding lower into April [5][6] - Despite lagging house price data, XHB has held support at the 200-week simple moving average and is now challenging resistance at the 50-week SMA, indicating potential for a rebound [6][7] Group 2: Energy Sector Developments - Energy Transfer LP (ET) is positioned well for income-seeking investors, offering a dividend yield exceeding 7% and raising its dividend quarterly at an annualized rate of 3% to 5% [8] - In Q1, Energy Transfer's distributable cash flow covered its payout by over a 2-to-1 margin, with significant growth in natural gas transportation volumes and crude oil throughput increasing by 10% [9] - The company is expanding its operations through low-cost acquisitions, with EBITDA from its Sunoco affiliate growing by 89.3% in Q1, and a major acquisition of Parkland Fuels expected to close in the second half of 2025 [10] Group 3: Telecommunications Performance - Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) reported Q2 revenues of $34.5 billion, exceeding expectations, and has seen a positive market reaction with a 4% rally following its earnings report [14][15] - The company has surpassed 5 million Fixed Wireless Access subscribers and achieved four consecutive quarters of core prepaid growth, leading to raised full-year guidance for adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, and free cash flow [17]

Company Overview - Intel plans to reduce its workforce to 75,000 by the end of this year, down from 99,500 at the end of 2024 [1] - The company is undergoing a significant turnaround under new CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who aims to rectify past strategic errors [2][7] Financial Performance - Intel forecasts a third-quarter loss of 24 cents per share, exceeding Wall Street's estimate of an 18-cent loss [4] - Expected revenue for the September quarter is between $12.6 billion and $13.6 billion, with a midpoint of $13.1 billion, surpassing analysts' average estimate of $12.65 billion [4] - The second-quarter revenue was flat at $12.9 billion, ending a four-quarter streak of sales declines and beating estimates of $11.92 billion [6] Market Conditions - The PC market outlook remains uncertain as customers advanced shipments to the first half of the year amid ongoing trade negotiations [5] - PC shipments rose by 6.5% in the June quarter, but macroeconomic uncertainty is causing reluctance among customers regarding spending commitments [5] Strategic Initiatives - CEO Tan is focusing on a next-generation chipmaking process called 14A, moving away from the previously developed 18A technology [7] - The company incurred restructuring costs of $1.9 billion in the second quarter due to job cuts [8] - Adjusted losses for the June quarter were 10 cents per share, compared to an expected profit of 1 cent per share, with an unadjusted loss of 67 cents per share, which was worse than the anticipated 26-cent loss [8]

Core Insights - NextEra Energy (NEE) has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 25 years, with a stock price increase of 1,140% compared to the index's performance [1] - Currently, NEE trades 20% below its historical highs as it approaches its Q2 earnings release on July 23 [1][8] Group 1: Performance and Market Position - Over the last five years, NEE has underperformed due to concerns about slowing earnings and dividend growth, as well as the potential reduction of government subsidies for renewable energy [2] - Despite recent challenges, NEE has maintained its earnings guidance and expects to grow dividends by 10% annually through at least 2026, starting from a 2024 base [3] - The company is projected to grow adjusted earnings by 7% in 2025 and 8% in 2026, following a 10% average growth over the past five years [9] Group 2: Strategic Advantages - NEE operates one of the largest electric utilities in the U.S., Florida Power & Light Company, and its subsidiary is a leading electric energy infrastructure company globally [5] - The company is a major producer of wind and solar energy, a leader in battery storage, and has a significant presence in natural gas and nuclear energy [6] - NEE is well-positioned to benefit from trends such as the AI boom, electrification, and energy infrastructure expansion [4][8] Group 3: Financial Metrics and Valuation - NEE's stock has increased approximately 190% over the past decade, lagging slightly behind the S&P 500's 205% increase [11] - The company is trading over 40% below its historical highs and near its 25-year median valuation of 19.5X forward 12-month earnings, which is a discount compared to the benchmark's 22.6X [12] - NEE has a market capitalization of $155 billion and is a significant holding in the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF, reflecting its stability in the sector [16]

Analyst Recommendation - Wedbush's Dan Ives named Tesla (TSLA) a Top 5 Tech Pick for 2025 [1] - Tesla joins Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta & Palantir as Wedbush's top tech picks [1] Market Opportunity - AI boom is still underestimated [1] - Tesla is set to ride the $2 trillion (2 万亿美元) wave of enterprise & government spending [1] - 2025 is called "an inflection point" for AI adoption [1]