Alpha(超额回报)

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“科技投资大师”詹姆斯·安德森:投资里最难的部分,不是发现那些少数赢家,而是熬过它们的回撤……
聪明投资者· 2025-09-01 07:03
Core Viewpoint - True wealth creation must be viewed over decades or even an entire company lifecycle to be realized [2] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - James Anderson, a prominent figure in global growth stock investment, emphasizes long-termism and imagination in identifying great companies [4][6] - The market is not a mean-reverting world but is driven by a power law, where a few winners generate most of the returns [8][22] - The real challenge in investing is not finding these great companies but enduring the inevitable significant drawdowns they experience [9][34] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Since 1926, 57% of U.S. companies have underperformed government bonds over their lifetimes, indicating that holding stocks does not guarantee systematic returns [24][25] - From 1990, one-third of excess returns in the U.S. stock market came from just 10 companies, highlighting the concentration of market performance [20][21] - Globally, only 1% of companies have generated all excess returns since 1990, reinforcing the idea of a few companies driving market value [22] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors should focus on identifying and supporting a small number of truly great companies, even if it means buying at unreasonable prices [46][48] - The investment approach should prioritize long-term value creation over short-term gains, moving away from the prevalent short-termism in the industry [38][66] - Companies that are ambitious and willing to challenge boundaries are essential for long-term investment success [94] Group 4: Future Outlook - The investment landscape is becoming increasingly inefficient, and the diversity of investment thinking is diminishing [38][56] - There is a need to shift focus back to genuinely creating value rather than merely trading and financial engineering [64] - The potential for significant advancements in sectors like healthcare and renewable energy suggests that the next wave of investment opportunities may arise from companies addressing fundamental issues [78][80]