What's going on guys. Today we got a great episode with John Pompiano. In this conversation we talk about Bitcoin, the price crashing, whether the bare market is here, and what you can do in your portfolio.And I get a little personal. I explain how I invest, how I think about buying and selling assets, and also how I think about portfolio construction and why there's a difference between the gambling table and the long-term lounge. You know where you'll find me.All that and much more in this conversation wi ...

Bitcoin Market Analysis - Bitcoin is potentially setting up for a 50% move by the end of February, potentially reaching just under $150,000 from a base of $98,000 [1][8] - The speaker believes Bitcoin can still hit $140,000 by the end of the year [1][9] - Bitcoin is seen as building a base in the $100,000-$110,000 range for a larger move up over the next few months [2] - A massive technical breakdown in the uptrend, confirmed by a dramatic drop below the $98,000 level and failure to re-enter the channel for a week, would be a bearish signal [12] - Lack of bipartisan regulatory progress on digital assets would also be concerning [13] - The speaker notes that Bitcoin has shown potential for powerful moves, citing a 15% move from $109,000 to $126,000 in six trading days in September/October and a 25% move from $98,000 to $123,236 in three weeks in June/July [7][8] Market Uncertainty and Influences - Uncertainty factors include the Supreme Court decision on tariffs, government shutdowns, and the Federal Reserve's actions in December [1] - The market has been resilient despite uncertainty, with institutional buyers seeing the dollar stabilize [1] - The speaker suggests that clarity on these issues is important, but structural issues like the AI story failing or a shift towards a socialist-leaning Democratic presidential candidate in 2027 could threaten the longer-term bull market [2] - The speaker believes that the market structure has changed due to institutional participation and the introduction of ETFs, leading to shallower drawdowns and a more gradual price increase [31][32] Broader Economic and Geopolitical Considerations - The speaker mentions the potential for US military action in Venezuela and its impact on financial markets, noting that the initial market reaction could be negative [1][57] - The speaker also discusses the concept of "White House asset management," where the government takes positions in companies deemed important for national security [42][43]

Bitcoin dropped below $100,000. The fear and greed index is flashing extreme fear and over a billion dollars in leverage positions were just vaporized in one of the largest liquidation cascades of the year. Yet, if you look at the headlines, the news has never been better.The Fed is cutting rates and ending quantitative tightening. Major crypto legislation has been signed into law and a wave of altcoin ETFs are waiting for the green light. This has created a two-faced market defined by a massive divergence ...

I've been getting a lot of questions in the comments, not even just on YouTube, but even on X, about are we at the top for crypto. Specifically, a lot of people have been asking about my opinion when it comes to other content creators in the space regarding XRP and if we're going to see this huge capitulation event or if we are going into the bare market. And the best way that I can answer this is no one knows what the next move is.I'm not going to be able to tell you 100% what's happening next. No one's go ...

Market Trend - Morgan Stanley CIO believes the current bull market is just beginning [1] - The sell-off in April was a final capitulation to a bear market that began last summer [2] - The market is currently in "buy the dip" mode due to the bull market mentality [2] Investment Strategy - Pullbacks in this new bull market will likely be shallower than expected [1] - The new bull market doesn't easily allow investors to enter [1]

Market Analysis & Trends - The 50-week simple moving average (SMA) is a key indicator for Bitcoin, with its ability to hold above this average suggesting the market cycle's integrity remains intact [1] - Historically, a weekly close below the 50-week SMA has signaled the end of a Bitcoin cycle and the halfway point of a bear market [1] - Diminishing returns across Bitcoin cycles may lead to more frequent tests of the 50-week SMA [2] - Bitcoin dominance tends to increase regardless of market conditions, suggesting a strategy of holding Bitcoin to mitigate downside risk [2] - The analysis suggests a potential test of the 50-week SMA, currently around $85,000-$86,000, in the near future, possibly as early as Q3 [2] Historical Patterns & Observations - In previous cycles (2013/2014 and 2017/2018), touching the 50-week SMA often marked the cycle's end [1] - The 2021 cycle differed, as Bitcoin reached new all-time highs even after a weekly close below the 50-week SMA, possibly due to it not being a midterm election year [1] - Historically, bear markets have predominantly occurred in midterm election years (2014, 2018, 2022) [5] Risk Management & Future Outlook - Maintaining positions in Bitcoin provides exposure to potential upside while minimizing downside risk [2][8] - The analysis suggests that while predicting exact market tops is difficult, monitoring the 50-week SMA is crucial [2][10] - A failure to hold the 50-week SMA as support could indicate the start of a typical bear market [5]