Market Conditions - Anthony Scaramucci believes markets have entered a bear phase, emphasizing that the real issue is the duration of this downturn rather than its existence [1][3] - Scaramucci describes bear markets as prolonged periods that persist until market participants exhaust their energy, rather than simply ending when fear peaks [2][4] Bitcoin Insights - Scaramucci suggests that Bitcoin's current behavior indicates a divergence between younger investors entering the crypto space and older investors favoring gold and silver [3][4] - He argues that if the market were driven solely by currency debasement fears, Bitcoin would be experiencing significant gains, which it is not [4] Investor Sentiment - Scaramucci notes that the loudest pessimism often coincides with investors being under-allocated rather than overexposed, based on his experience through nine bear markets [5] - He maintains that downturns typically conclude not when fear dissipates, but when market participants become fatigued [4][5] Regulatory Environment - Scaramucci expresses optimism regarding potential U.S. regulatory reforms that could positively impact Bitcoin, suggesting that addressing regulatory issues may lead to a price target of $150,000 [7][8] - The anticipated regulatory changes could foster growth in decentralized finance and blockchain sectors, influencing investor sentiment and allocation during the current bear phase [8]

I am not a bear by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, my 2026 Market Outlook was the second most bullish among Seeking Alpha analysts and hinged on the idea we are entering anDecoding markets beyond P/E. As an investor, I either put my money into low cost funds or in single stocks that (I think) are asymmetric bets. My portfolio is roughly 50/50 between the two. I like to write about Macro and Fundamentals, with the (painful) awareness that Momentum and Sentiment are what really matters. That’s why I ...

Market Overview - The markets have become increasingly nervous in 2026, transitioning from a rotation out of tech stocks to a broader sell-off of sectors potentially disrupted by artificial intelligence (AI) [1] Investment Strategies - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 have not yet seen significant pullbacks, but there is a risk of larger declines if investor fear escalates [2] - In a potential bear market, investors may want to consider sectors that could perform well during stock corrections [2] Recommended ETFs - **Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV)**: This ETF serves as an alternative to stocks in a bear market, though it carries interest rate sensitivity and volatility. If interest rates decline, the share price could see significant upside potential [5][6] - **Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC)**: This ETF invests in defensive stocks that typically experience less decline than the S&P 500 during market corrections. For instance, in 2022, while the S&P 500 fell over 18%, this ETF only dropped less than 2%, providing substantial downside protection [7] - **Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND)**: This ETF offers a standard hedge against equity portfolio risk, encompassing a broad range of investment-grade bonds. It has lower interest rate sensitivity compared to the Extended Duration Treasury ETF and is likely to provide protection and risk mitigation during bear markets [8][9][10]

The crypto market is bleeding. And the wounds keep deepening. Bitcoin trades at $67,621 today, down 1.70% in the last 24 hours. But this isn't just another bad day—it could potentially help mark one of the most prolonged bear runs in Bitcoin history. If February closes red, Bitcoin will complete five consecutive months of losses, the longest streak since June 2018 when Bitcoin was down for six months. With February already down 13.98%, the signs aren't promising. The accumulated losses from October 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's stock has entered a bear market, experiencing its worst losing streak in nearly two decades, raising concerns among investors about the effectiveness of the company's spending plans [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Amazon's shares recorded their ninth consecutive day of losses, closing at $198.79 [1] - The stock has declined by 18.2% during this losing streak, marking the longest period of losses since July 2006 [1] Group 2: Historical Context - In the second quarter of 2006, Amazon's operating income fell by 55% year over year as the company focused on its Prime service and developing its cloud business [1]

Amazon and Microsoft stocks have entered 'bear market' territory and the rest of the Magnificent Seven isn't that far behind. ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect double-digit gains in the S&P 500 for the remaining months of 2026, despite concerns over economic slowdown and high valuations [2][4][6] Economic Growth and Earnings - S&P 500 companies reported acceleration in revenue and earnings growth in 2025, with expectations for further acceleration in 2026 driven by economic growth, tax cuts, and AI spending [3] - The S&P 500 has shown strong performance with double-digit returns in 2023, 2024, and 2025, and a positive start in 2026, gaining over 1% year to date [5] Valuation Concerns - The S&P 500 currently trades at 22 times forward earnings, significantly above the 10-year average of 18.8 times, indicating a premium valuation [8] - Historical context shows that such high valuations were only sustained during the dot-com bubble and the COVID-19 pandemic, both of which led to bear markets [9] Economic Uncertainty - Economic uncertainty is heightened by President Trump's tariffs, which have led to reduced hiring and slow job growth, with only 181,000 jobs added in 2025 compared to 1.2 million in 2024 [4][10] - Historically, the S&P 500 has averaged a return of just 4.6% in midterm election years, with an average intra-year drawdown of 17%, suggesting potential volatility in 2026 [11] Analyst Forecasts - 20 Wall Street research organizations project S&P 500 returns ranging from 2% to 17% for the remainder of 2026, with a median forecast of approximately 10% [6] - Despite these forecasts, Wall Street has historically struggled with accuracy in predicting year-end S&P 500 levels, with a median error of 16 percentage points over the last four years [7]

Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant decline of 23.4% in 2025, with current trading prices at $67,214, indicating sustained market pressure and raising concerns about the potential continuation of the downtrend [1] Investor Sentiment - Investor flow data indicates a shift towards bearish sentiment, as new investor inflows have turned negative, suggesting that the ongoing sell-off is not being countered by new capital entering the market [2] - In bull markets, capital typically increases during price declines, while early bear markets are characterized by capital withdrawal amid weakness [2] Market Behavior - Current market conditions resemble post-all-time-high transitions, where marginal buyers exit and price movements are driven by internal rotation rather than net inflows, indicating early bear market conditions with contracting liquidity [3] - Without renewed inflows, any upward price movements are likely to be corrective rather than indicative of a trend reversal [3] Technical Analysis - Historical cycle data suggests that Bitcoin may face further downside risk, as previous major bear markets saw prices bottom below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from prior cycle peaks [4] - The most recent bear market bottom was approximately 45% below the 0.618 retracement threshold, indicating a pattern of progressively shallower declines [5] - If Bitcoin were to bottom 30% below the current cycle high's 0.618 retracement level, it could still reach around $42,000 [5][6] Market Cycle Indicators - The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator shows that bearish conditions began in October 2025, but it has not yet entered an extreme bear phase, suggesting that further declines may still be possible [7]

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of SPX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any i ...

Live Chat on The Biotech Forum sees frequent discussion of specific covered call trades. To see what covered call trades I am currently executing along with a model portfolio of attractive biotech stocks, just initiate your free trial into The Biotech Forum by clicking HERE .The big rebound in the market Friday pushed the Dow past the 50,000 mark for the first time in its long and storied history. The S&P 500 is just under its all-time high, as is the NASDAQ, despiteBret Jensen has over 13 years as a market ...