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百年保险资管董事长杨峻:被动投资大发展重塑资管价值创造逻辑‌
Core Viewpoint - The rise of passive investment is reshaping the asset management industry, leading to three profound impacts: the toolization of Beta, the specialization of Alpha, and the intensification of the Matthew effect [1][5]. Group 1: Growth of Passive Investment - Passive funds are experiencing rapid growth across global markets, including the US, Europe, Japan, and China, with ETFs leading this trend [3]. - In China, the management fee for broad-based index ETFs has dropped to 15 basis points (bps), while thematic ETFs range from 20 to 60 bps, compared to 120 bps for active equity funds, highlighting a significant cost advantage for passive products [3][4]. - The new "National Nine Articles" policy supports the establishment of a fast-track approval process for ETFs, enhancing the efficiency of fund registration [3]. - Passive investment aligns with investor preferences, as it has a lower cognitive barrier and clearer investment themes, with pension finance being a significant driver of growth [3]. Group 2: Performance and Market Dynamics - Although there is some debate regarding performance, the difficulty for active equity funds to consistently outperform passive funds is increasing. In the US, only 21% of active funds outperformed passive funds over the past decade, while in China, 58% of active equity funds outperformed their passive counterparts in 2023, a decrease of 5 percentage points from 2022 [4]. - Passive investment products have become essential tools for both institutional and individual investors, meeting demands for transparency, low volatility, and cost efficiency [5]. Group 3: Alpha Specialization and Active ETFs - The challenge for active fund managers is significant, as deep Alpha extraction requires focusing on areas with low pricing efficiency and opaque information. Despite the overall trend, certain sectors like real estate and bonds still show potential for excess returns [6]. - Active ETFs may emerge as a key solution to balance low costs, high liquidity, and excess returns, combining active management capabilities with the transparency and liquidity of ETFs [7]. Group 4: Matthew Effect and Market Concentration - The Matthew effect is intensifying in the asset management industry, with the profitability of global asset management declining from 14.4 bps in 2021 to 11.6 bps in 2023, particularly in North America and the Asia-Pacific regions [8]. - In the passive equity fund sector, the top ten institutions are projected to hold 66% of the market share by 2024, with the top ten ETF providers accounting for 80% of the ETF market, compared to only 46% in the active equity fund space [8].