在岁末年初之际，2026年权益市场将如何演绎成为投资者关注的焦点。近日，摩根资产管理中国权益投 资团队在策略会上，以多元与国际视角，分享了对于2026年市场机会的研判。 摩根资产管理中国总经理王琼慧在开场致辞中表示，面对全球被动投资的浪潮，摩根资产管理始终坚持 发展主动投资能力，致力于打造"立足本土，与全球融会贯通"的投研平台。依托研究驱动、团队协作与 严谨的风险管理体系，公司持续为投资者提供高质量的产品与服务，挖掘长期价值。 银河证券数据显示，截至11月30日，摩根基金近1年、2年、3年及20年的主动股票投资管理能力均位列 行业前10（分别为6/130、6/127、8/122、7/29），其中近一年主动股票投资管理收益率超过50%。同时 近年来公司在指数及量化、固定收益、多资产解决方案、混合资产以及流动性管理等领域齐头并进，各 投资团队实力不断增强。 聚焦高景气成长赛道，权益成长组基金经理赵隆隆重点看好两大方向：首先是全面看好锂电与储能产业 链，认为储能正取代电动车成为核心需求驱动力，行业供需格局显著改善，龙头公司盈利修复空间广 阔，上游碳酸锂价格亦具备弹性；其次，持续看好AI带来的硬件与软件投资机遇，并强 ...

权益基金"满血复活"大数据 2025年，A股市场走出了一轮以科技为核心的牛市行情，公募基金迎来近年来最显著的赚钱效应。 Wind数据显示，全市场有数据统计的13530只公募基金（仅计算主代码，下同）中，今年以来（截至12月22日，下同）回报率为正的有12642 只，占比达93.44%。负收益产品仅869只，占比6.42%。另有少量基金零收益。 与前三年市场低迷、基金大面积亏损的情况不同，2025年主动权益类基金（含普通股票型、偏股混合型、平衡混合型、灵活配置型）实现"满 血复活"。 当市场还在争论主动与被动投资孰优孰劣时，2025年的公募基金排名战给出了双重答案。 截至12月22日，永赢科技智选以超过231%的年度回报暂时登顶主动基金榜首，国泰通信设备ETF则以125.7%的涨幅领跑被动基金阵营。 在这场"双轨竞速"中，主动权益基金与被动指数基金虽均实现显著收益，但胜出逻辑截然不同：主动基金依靠精准的行业聚焦与高集中度选股 实现超额收益，被动基金则依托通信、人工智能等高景气主题指数的爆发性增长获得领先。 两条截然不同的制胜路径，正在重塑中国资产管理行业的竞争格局。 统计显示，全市场4700只主动权益类基金年内 ...

21世纪经济报道特约记者 庞华玮 当市场还在争论主动与被动投资孰优孰劣时，2025年的公募基金排名 战给出了双重答案。 被动指数基金同样表现亮眼，全市场2362只被动指数基金，平均回报率23.68%。其中，2159只实现正 收益，占比91.41%，其中11只收益超100%。 来自格上基金的数据同样印证了这一趋势：代表主动权益基金的偏股混合型基金指数上涨32.28%，收 益中位数为26.66%；股票指数型基金指数上涨27.23%，收益中位数为20.61%。 截至12月22日，永赢科技智选以超过231%的年度回报暂时登顶主动基金榜首，国泰通信设备ETF则以 125.7%的涨幅领跑被动基金阵营。 在这场"双轨竞速"中，主动权益基金与被动指数基金虽均实现显著收益，但胜出逻辑截然不同：主动基 金依靠精准的行业聚焦与高集中度选股实现超额收益，被动基金则依托通信、人工智能等高景气主题指 数的爆发性增长获得领先。 两条截然不同的制胜路径，正在重塑中国资产管理行业的竞争格局。 权益基金"满血复活"大数据 2025年，A股市场走出了一轮以科技为核心的牛市行情，公募基金迎来近年来最显著的赚钱效应。 数据显示，全市场有数据统计的13 ...

# 读者福利 ， 欢迎留言互动， 12 月 29 日前，平台随机从留言中选取 3 位读者获赠本期推 荐新书！ 01 《赢得输家的游戏：投资者如何长期战胜市场》 [美]查尔斯·D. 埃利斯 著 机械工业出版社 出版 内容简介 教你在长期投资之路上破除陷阱、少走弯路。 对每位希望从股市长期获利的投资者而言，本书是一部值得信赖的权威指南， 被"现代管理学之父"彼得·德鲁克称为"迄今为止关于投资策略和投资管理的佳 作"。在本书中，分享了如何以更低的成本、更小的风险、更少的时间和精力在投 资中取得长期成功，帮助读者在如今这个越来越难以预测的市场中制胜。其核心 在于明确你的投资目标、制定有效的长期策略，并以耐心和决心使市场波动为你 所用，长期坚持执行这些策略。这部经典之作深入剖析了指数投资为何能持续超 越主动投资，在此次全面更新的版本中，埃利斯还新增了关于债券投资、行为经 济学、技术和大数据的章节。 作者简介 查尔斯·D.埃利斯 创立了格林威治合伙公司，这是一家国际战略咨询公司，为全球130多个专业金融 市场的顶尖机构提供服务。他的著名文章《赢得输家相争的比赛》，是一篇开拓 性的论文，发表于《金融分析杂志》，在1975年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry expresses a highly pessimistic outlook on the U.S. stock market, predicting a prolonged bear market similar to that of 2000, driven by the dominance of passive investment strategies [2][5][21]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Burry believes that the current market structure, dominated by passive funds (over 50%), will lead to a scenario where the entire market declines simultaneously, making it difficult to protect oneself with long positions [6][24]. - He compares the current AI investment frenzy to the "data transmission bubble" of 2000, noting a lag between capital expenditure and market peaks [3][8]. - Burry anticipates that Palantir's stock, currently at $200, is overvalued and should be worth $30 or less, leading him to buy out-of-the-money put options with a strike price of $50 [6][11]. Group 2: Palantir's Financial Health - Burry criticizes Palantir's financial structure, highlighting that the company has created multiple billionaires without generating significant profits, as its stock-based compensation is nearly equal to its profits [7][32]. - He points out that Palantir's revenue from government contracts has significantly decreased, and the company is now focusing on enterprise clients, which may not yield the expected profitability [31][32]. - Burry emphasizes that the current valuation of Palantir is unsustainable, as the company has not produced specialized AI products despite being perceived as a leader in the field [33][36]. Group 3: AI and Google - Burry warns that AI poses a serious threat to Google's core cash flow from its search business, as AI search is significantly more expensive compared to traditional search methods [3][42]. - He argues that most users will access AI services for free, and the willingness to pay for large models will be minimal, with real profits likely confined to the developer ecosystem [9][43]. Group 4: Critique of the Federal Reserve - Burry holds a sharp critique of the Federal Reserve, claiming it has not contributed positively over its century-long existence and advocates for its abolition, suggesting that its functions should be transferred to the Treasury [4][48][49].

以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，坚持指数基金(ETF)低估定投，分享指数基金基础分析，让我们：买入有依，持有有底，卖出有 据。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 六亿居士 . 作者：六亿居士 来源：雪球 主动与被动投资孰优孰劣 ， 曾是投资界热议的话题 。 最广为人知的莫过于巴菲特提出的十年赌约 ， 相信各位都有所耳闻 。 近年来 ， 随着指数化投资的快速发展 ， 各类被动型基金规模持续攀升 ， " 躺平 " 买指数成为越来越多人的选择 。 在此趋势下 ， 主动与被动 之争逐渐平息 。 Wind数据显示 ， 截至今年三季度末 ， 被动型权益基金规模已达4.54万亿元 ， 显著超越主动权益型基金的3.86万亿元 ， 且两者差距仍在扩大 。 于是 ， 一个值得思考的问题浮现 ： 当越来越多人转向被动投资 ， 主动基金是否还有机会 ？ 这是许多投资者关心的问题 ， 也是持有主动基金的朋友们最常提出的疑问 。 坦率地说 ， 答案或许并不复杂 ： 当市场中的非理性参与者减 ...

导读：陪伴是最长情的告白。如今这个时代，能够长期管理一个产品超过10年的基金经理少之又少。根据 Wind数据，截止2025年10月31日，全部公募基金中在任时间超过10年的基金经理占比 1.95%（487/24926）。在这批基金经理中，任职以来年化收益率超过10%更是只有93位，占比不到20%。 在今年夏天去纽约的时候，我们参观了位于麦迪逊大道225号的摩根博物馆。这里曾经是JP摩根先生的私人图 书馆，里面保存了大量艺术品。包括世界上第一部采用活字印刷的书籍《古登堡圣经》，以及达芬奇、米开朗 基罗、伦勃朗等大师级作品。在那里，我们感受到摩根文化中的厚重。 当资管公司纷纷加大被动指数业务的投入时，摩根资产管理仍然在坚守主动投资的最后"堡垒"。他们用实际行 动"做多中国"，也诠释了如何用平台化方式，培养出一批具有"长跑"能力的主动权益基金经理。 在我们眼中，"双十基金经理"是一名基金经理的最高荣誉。"双十"的第一个十，代表着长期。一个基金经理能 兢兢业业坚守同一个产品，在同一家公司10年，是很难做到的。"双十"的第二个十，代表着价值。如果一个基 金经理能取得任职以来10%以上的年化收益率，在一定程度上或可以证明 ...

Core Insights - There is a significant shift of investor interest towards international equity ETFs, with $22 billion in net flows recorded in October, bringing total inflows for 2025 to over $150 billion and net assets to $2,014 billion [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - International equity ETFs now represent 14% of the total ETF marketplace as of October 31 [1]. - Despite market uncertainties such as tariffs and geopolitical tensions, investors are still attracted to international equities this year [2]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle is contributing to the movement towards international equities as the dollar depreciates [3]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The MSCI ACWI Ex USA index, which tracks stocks in major developed and emerging markets excluding the U.S., has been outperforming the S&P 500 for most of the year [4]. Group 3: Investment Options - Thornburg offers two active international equity ETFs: Thornburg International Equity ETF (TXUE) for broad exposure and Thornburg International Growth Fund ETF (TXUG) for growth-focused investments [5][6]. - These actively managed ETFs leverage the expertise of the Thornburg investment management team to navigate the complexities of international markets [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent market environment characterized by high volatility has provided a platform for flexible active equity funds to outperform passive index products, indicating a resurgence in the popularity of active equity funds [1][2][4]. Group 1: Performance of Active Equity Funds - Since the beginning of the fourth quarter, active equity funds have shown significant performance advantages, with some funds achieving returns exceeding 30%, such as the Taixin Development Theme Fund and Taixin Modern Service Fund [2]. - The Taixin Development Theme Fund has heavily invested in sectors like lithium mining and solid-state batteries, with stocks such as Tianhua Xinneng and Shengxin Lithium Energy doubling in price since the fourth quarter began [2]. Group 2: New Fund Submissions - There has been a surge in new submissions for active equity funds, with 54 new stock and mixed funds reported in November, surpassing the number of index funds for the first time this year [3]. - Major fund companies like Ping An Fund and GF Fund have submitted multiple new active products covering various themes, including emerging equipment, technology, and healthcare [3]. Group 3: Flexibility and Strategic Advantages - Active equity funds are regaining traction due to their ability to adapt to market changes and exploit alpha opportunities, as evidenced by their recent performance against passive funds [4]. - The current structural market conditions, characterized by rapid sector rotation, favor active management strategies that allow for timely adjustments in sector weightings [4][6]. Group 4: Future of Active and Passive Investment - The growth of passive investment has created a more competitive landscape, necessitating active funds to refine their strategies to maintain relevance and achieve excess returns [5]. - The market is expected to see a continued evolution where successful active funds focus on stock selection to generate alpha, while passive funds will enhance their offerings to meet diverse investor needs [5][6].

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing debate between active and passive investment strategies, highlighting the increasing popularity of passive investing and its implications for active investors [5][31]. - It emphasizes that the success of active investing relies on the existence of "inefficient" market participants, allowing skilled investors to capitalize on their mistakes [7][10]. - The article presents three viable paths for beating the market: defeating "foolish money," seeking "different money," and managing investment behavior [5][22][24]. Group 2 - The first path, defeating "foolish money," suggests that skilled investors can profit from less competent market participants, as demonstrated by successful investors like Warren Buffett [10][12]. - The second path involves recognizing that not all market participants are "foolish," but rather have different risk perceptions, which can lead to mispricing of assets [16][22]. - The third path focuses on behavioral finance, illustrating how managing emotions and adhering to investment discipline can lead to superior returns compared to passive strategies [24][28]. Group 3 - The article concludes that as more investors shift towards passive strategies, the opportunities for excess returns may become scarcer, but active investors can still find advantages through behavioral biases in the market [33][34]. - It highlights that the competition in the investment landscape is intense, and success will depend more on relative skill levels rather than absolute skill levels [34].