Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen 23.4% so far this year, after declining more than 6% in 2025. Prices have remained under sustained pressure, with the leading cryptocurrency currently trading at $67,214. Amid this, a key question continues to weigh on market sentiment: when will the Bitcoin downtrend end? Four key signals suggest that the asset may still be in the early stages of a bear market, raising the possibility of further downside. Capital Flight Confirms Bearish Sentiment Shift Investor flow data sends ...

Core Viewpoint - The bull market, which began in October 2022, has seen a shift in leadership from tech stocks to sectors like Energy and Materials, indicating a potential new phase in the market driven by cyclical and value companies [1][17]. Sector Performance - Energy and Materials sectors have led the U.S. market with double-digit returns through early February, while Consumer Staples and Industrials are also performing well [1]. - Concerns have arisen regarding late-cycle industries and defensive sectors outperforming as the bull market matures [2]. Upcoming Corporate Events - Several non-tech blue-chip firms are scheduled for investor events that may provide insights into the manufacturing and Main Street economies, following a strong ISM U.S. Manufacturing PMI reading [4][10]. - Notable upcoming events include: - Xcel Energy's Analyst Day on February 5, focusing on power generation and a more aggressive capex plan [5][6]. - Williams Company's Analyst Day on February 10, which will discuss a $5.1 billion power innovation capex initiative [7][8]. - FedEx's Investor Day on February 12, where the company is expected to present an upbeat outlook following a significant share price increase [11][12]. - JPMorgan Chase's Business Update on February 23, which will include an operational overview and a Q&A session [13][14]. Market Sentiment - The bull market is broadening, with capital rotating towards cyclical, value, and real-economy sectors, suggesting a potential strengthening of economic momentum beyond the tech sector [17].

Core Insights - The market is currently experiencing a bull phase, but certain sectors are facing significant challenges due to underlying bearish trends [1] - Long-term investment strategies should focus on sustained profitability indicators such as strong margins, stable free cash flow, and high returns on invested capital rather than solely on valuation metrics [1] Group 1 - The analyst emphasizes a dual focus on undervalued growth stocks and high-quality dividend growers in U.S. and European equities [1] - The investment philosophy is shaped by an interdisciplinary background, enhancing both quantitative analysis and market narrative interpretation [1] - The goal of investment is to achieve financial freedom that allows for personal expression in work rather than complete detachment from it [1]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion emphasizes a positive outlook for the market, driven by factors such as a dovish Federal Reserve, supportive fiscal policies, and ongoing AI capital expenditure growth, suggesting a strong economic environment ahead. Market Outlook - The Carson Group holds an aggressive view for the market's trajectory towards 2026, indicating that credit spreads show no stress in the financial system, with high yield bonds performing well relative to treasuries, signaling confidence in credit markets [1][2]. - The advanced decline lines indicate strong market participation, particularly in sectors like industrials and small caps, which have recently outperformed the S&P 500 [1][2]. - Historical patterns suggest that when advanced decline lines reach new highs, there is typically a 9 to 12 month period before the market peaks, indicating potential for continued growth [1]. Federal Reserve and Inflation - The Federal Reserve is perceived as more dovish compared to previous midterm years, which were marked by hawkish policies, suggesting a more favorable environment for investors [1][2]. - Inflation is currently modeled around 3%, with expectations that the Fed may not hike rates further and could potentially cut rates in the latter half of the year [2][3]. - The Fed's historical actions of cutting rates near all-time highs have led to positive market performance in the following year, reinforcing the notion that the current economic conditions are stable [2]. Economic Indicators - The labor market remains strong, with unemployment at 4.4%, indicating a healthy economy, and jobless claims not showing significant spikes [3]. - Productivity growth is noted at 4.9%, which historically correlates with better economic performance and stock market returns [3][4]. - The fiscal policy is expected to remain supportive, with tax cuts and increased consumer spending anticipated to bolster economic activity [3][4]. Sector Performance - The discussion highlights a broadening market theme, where sectors beyond the major tech stocks (MAG) are contributing positively to market gains, with small and mid-cap stocks showing significant performance [7][8]. - The S&P 500 equal weight index recently reached an all-time high, indicating that a wider array of stocks is participating in the market rally [8][9]. Bull Market Cycle - The current bull market is considered to be in its early stages, with historical data suggesting that bull markets can last significantly longer than commonly perceived, potentially extending for several more years [14][16]. - Small caps and energy stocks are noted to be breaking out to levels not seen in years, indicating potential for continued growth in these sectors [17][18].

Group 1 - The article highlights Ian Bezek's background as a former hedge fund analyst and his expertise in Latin American markets, particularly Mexico, Colombia, and Chile [2] - Ian Bezek specializes in identifying high-quality compounders and growth stocks at reasonable prices in the US and other developed markets [2] - The investing group led by Ian, called Ian's Insider Corner, offers features such as a Weekend Digest, trade alerts, and direct access to Ian for members [2] Group 2 - The article does not provide any specific financial data or performance metrics related to companies or industries [3][4]

Market Overview - The bulls have dominated Wall Street for nearly three years, with major indexes showing significant gains [1] - In 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite increased by 13%, 16%, and 20% respectively, achieving multiple record-closing highs [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. money supply, particularly M2, is reaching historical levels, with M2 hitting an all-time high of $22.411 trillion in December 2025 [8] - M2's growth is traditionally seen as a positive sign for a bull market, as it indicates a growing economy requiring more capital for transactions [8] Concerns and Warnings - Despite the positive outlook, the expansion of M2 money supply has not kept pace with the tech-driven rally on Wall Street, raising concerns about sustainability [9] - The overwhelming optimism in the market, driven by artificial intelligence advancements and anticipated interest rate cuts, may not be sustainable in the long term [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - U.S. equity markets had a strong start to 2026, but short-term warning signs are emerging [1] - The current market is influenced by AI stocks, which are facing pressure following Microsoft’s earnings report [1][7] - Silver's bull market is showing signs of a classic blow-off top, indicating potential danger for the broader market [2][8] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Microsoft reported a significant increase in CAPEX spending, totaling $37.5 billion last quarter, a 66% year-over-year rise [1] - Concerns regarding Microsoft include a slowdown in its cloud business and reliance on OpenAI for revenue [1] Group 3: Seasonal Trends and Sentiment - February is historically a weak month for markets, with corrections common in mid-term election years [3] - The AAII Sentiment survey indicates that individual investors are overwhelmingly bullish, which is often a contrarian signal [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, particularly when insiders are buying shares at lower prices [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and return [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] Group 2: Stock Selection Criteria - The investor screens thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, looking for those that have undergone recent sell-offs [1] - A key criterion for stock selection is insider buying at lower prices following a sell-off, which may indicate confidence in the company's future [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off to ensure credibility and alignment with shareholder interests [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] - Multicolor lines are used for visualizing support and resistance, along with trend lines to identify potential price movements [1]

Market Overview - Bitcoin has rebounded to the high-$90,000 and low-$80,000 area after a temporary fall to the mid-$80,000s, relieving short-term downside pressure [1] - Currently trading around $89,500, Bitcoin is up about 1.4% over the past 24 hours but is down more than 7% over the last 14 days, remaining nearly 13% lower year to date and about 29% below its all-time high [2] Long-Term Trend Analysis - Bitcoin continues to trade above its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), a key long-term metric indicating structural bull markets when above this level [3] - The 200-day EMA is trending up, suggesting that long-term demand remains intact and recent price retreats are corrective rather than indicative of a reversal [4] Institutional Demand Insights - Since October 2025, ETF holdings have decreased by over $6 billion, an 8% decline from peak levels, indicating cautious demand from institutional investors [5] - Bitcoin is currently hovering near the ETF realized price of approximately $86,600, which is the average cost basis for ETF buyers, marking a psychological pivot for market sentiment [6] - While outflows have softened and ETF realized prices have stabilized, inflows have not returned in a sustained manner, leaving institutional demand cautious rather than decisively risk-on [6] Short-Term Holder Behavior - The on-chain cost basis for recent Bitcoin buyers is a critical metric, reflecting the behavior of short-term holders as Bitcoin tests key price levels [7]

Core Insights - Strong earnings reports are driving positive sentiment in the stock market, indicating robust company performance and investor confidence [1] Group 1 - The current market environment is characterized by high awareness of strong earnings, suggesting that investors are already factoring this into stock valuations [1] - Companies are experiencing significant growth, which is reflected in their earnings reports, contributing to overall market strength [1] - The general consensus among analysts is that while earnings are strong, the market may be overvalued due to widespread recognition of this trend [1]