证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 28 年 月 日 房地产开发 C-REITs 周报——东久新经济扩募上市，证监会称正稳步推进商 业不动产 REITs 试点 REITs 指数表现 本周中证 REITs 全收益指数上涨 1.56%。截至 12.26，本周（12.19- 12.26，下同）中证 REITs(收盘)指数上涨 1.39%，收于 783.9 点；中证 REITs 全收益指数上涨 1.56%，收于 1014.8 点。本周沪深 300/恒生/中债 十年期国债/房地产(申万)/恒生地产建筑业/高速公路(申万)指数分别上涨 1.95%/上涨 0.50%/上涨 0.06%/上涨 1.91%/上涨 0.30%/上涨 1.43%。 本年中证 REITs 全收益指数涨幅为 4.85%。截至 12.26，本年中证 REITs(收盘)指数跌幅为 0.72%，中证 REITs 全收益指数涨幅为 4.85%。 本年沪深 300/恒生/中债十年期国债/房地产(申万)/恒生地产建筑业/高速 公路(申万)指数分别上涨 18.36%/上涨 28.71%/下跌 0.91%/上涨 2.55%/ 上涨 1 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **China Real Estate** sector, particularly high-end property demand and market dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **High-End Demand Validation**: The launch of Shenzhen One Bay Park by CRL and COLI achieved RMB13 billion in sales, indicating a sell-through rate of approximately 70%, which supports the anticipated strong demand for high-end properties [2][8] 2. **Sales Decline in Luxury Projects**: Despite the positive launch, developers experienced an average sales decline of 39% year-on-year in November, highlighting ongoing market challenges [2][9] 3. **Upcoming High-End Projects**: Several high-end projects are set to launch in December, which are crucial for shaping market expectations for sales and earnings in the upcoming year [2][10] 4. **C-REITs Development**: The CSRC's plans to establish commercial REITs and include more property types in C-REITs signal a potential growth area for the China property market, particularly benefiting developers like Seazen [3][8] 5. **Land Market Weakness**: The value of land for sale in tier-1 and key tier-2 cities is down 42% and 61% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a lack of prime land availability and weak market sentiment [4][11][12] Investment Recommendations 1. **Stock Picks**: The preferred stocks include CRL, C&D, and Seazen, all rated as Buy. These companies are expected to benefit from proactive land replenishment and a clear margin recovery trend [5][8] 2. **Risk Appetite**: Distressed names may attract investors with a higher risk tolerance, while the overall sentiment remains cautious due to market conditions [5][8] Additional Important Insights - **Policy Expectations**: There are renewed expectations for innovative policies such as mortgage subsidies and tax rebates, which could positively impact market sentiment [2][8] - **Sales Performance Data**: Detailed sales performance data for various developers in November shows significant declines, with some companies like CR Land showing a 51% month-on-month increase but still a decline of 11% year-on-year [9][10] - **Valuation Metrics**: The report includes valuation metrics for various property developers, indicating a significant discount to NAV for many, reflecting market challenges [20][22] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the China real estate market.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the C-REITs sector is maintained as "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The C-REITs market is expected to benefit from a low interest rate environment and ongoing macroeconomic recovery in 2025, presenting investment opportunities. The focus should be on timing, as the REITs have already undergone valuation recovery in 2024. Investors are advised to select individual securities based on asset resilience, secondary market prices, and P/NAV ratios [4][11] - The performance of the C-REITs secondary market has shown an upward trend, with significant gains in the consumption infrastructure and affordable housing sectors, while the ecological and environmental protection sector has seen a pullback [3][11] Summary by Sections REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index increased by 1.39% this week, closing at 1076.8 points as of May 16. The CSI REITs closing index rose by 1.24%, closing at 859 points. The Hang Seng index had the highest increase this week at 2.09%, while the REITs total return index ranked second [1][9] Year-to-Date Performance - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs total return index has increased by 11.25%, while the CSI REITs closing index has risen by 8.79%. In comparison, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has decreased by 1.16% [2][9] Secondary Market Performance - As of May 16, the total market capitalization of listed REITs is approximately 193.25 billion yuan, with an average market capitalization of about 3 billion yuan per REIT. This week, 52 REITs increased in value, while 13 decreased, with an average weekly increase of 1.84% [3][11] Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs shows a range, with the top three being Huaxia China Communications REIT at 11.3%, Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT at 10.7%, and Zhongjin Anhui Jiaokong REIT at 9%. The P/NAV ratios are between 0.7 and 1.8, with the highest being Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT and Zhongjin Xiamen Anju REIT at 1.8 [4][11]