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卫星化学(002648):检修影响三季度业绩,烯烃格局有望改善
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-28 04:43
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2025 was impacted by maintenance activities, with a significant decline in net profit compared to the previous year [11][5]. - The company reported a total revenue of 34.771 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.73%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.755 billion yuan, up 1.69% year-on-year [5][11]. - The report anticipates an improvement in the olefin market structure, which could benefit the company's future performance [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.311 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.15%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.61% [5][11]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.011 billion yuan, down 38.21% year-on-year and down 13.95% quarter-on-quarter [5][11]. - The non-recurring net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.342 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.63% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.45% [5][11]. Market and Operational Insights - The company faced significant pressure in Q3 due to routine maintenance of its polyethylene and ethylene glycol facilities, which lasted for 45 days and affected the C2 chain profitability [11]. - The average price of ethane in Q3 2025 was 170 USD/ton, a decrease of 4.81% from the previous quarter [11]. - The company has invested in a new ethanolamine facility with an annual capacity of 100,000 tons, enhancing its product diversification and market competitiveness [11]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see net profits of 5.48 billion yuan, 6.73 billion yuan, and 7.89 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.2X, 9.1X, and 7.8X [11].