恩华药业 20250916 摘要 恩华药业股价与医药板块背离，但即使不计依托咪酯广东联盟区域的利 润（1 亿）和收入（4 亿），年度表观利润预计仍达 12 亿，其他非集采 产品构成安全边际。 依托咪酯虽有集采风险，但按最坏预期评估，忽略广东联盟区域贡献， 公司仍有约 12 亿利润。集采落地后，公司经营节奏有望改善，以 20 倍 市盈率估算，安全边际在 240-250 亿元。 恩华药业在 CNS 领域管线完整，拥有多个高确定性创新药。60,001 乳 液（依托咪酯改构）预计市场销售额至少翻倍，峰值约 30 亿元，可用 于麻醉维持。 创新药 300,231 针对精神分裂症，对标强生收购的卢比派隆，峰值销售 预期 50 亿美元。140,068 是多巴胺、五羟色胺、核量胺三受体激动剂， 具全球首创潜力，目前处于一期临床。 NH130 对标品诺泛塞林，是下一代针对帕金森半精分适应症的重要产品。 这些创新管线显示恩华药业在全球范围内的竞争力。 恩华药业在抗抑郁领域有三个品种，阿尔兹海默病领域有两个品种在研， 展示了公司在 CNS 领域的全面发展策略。 Q&A 目前如何看待恩华药业的核心产品依托咪酯及其未来前景？ 依托咪酯 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential stock price increase of over 15% within the next six months [12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.017 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 388 million yuan, down 3.5%. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 7.8% to 360 million yuan [1][2]. - The gross profit margin slightly decreased to 49.6%, down 2.0 percentage points, but the cost structure has improved significantly, leading to a stable enhancement in profitability [1][2]. - The company is focusing on the CNS (Central Nervous System) field for research and market expansion, with strong performance from already launched products and steady progress in clinical trials for new products [2][3]. Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for finished drugs decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 63.8%, and for raw materials, it decreased by 3.0 percentage points to 24.5% [1]. - The company’s operating expenses ratio was 27.8%, down 3.5 percentage points, with sales expenses decreasing due to personnel structure optimization [1]. - The company’s revenue from finished drugs was 1.175 billion yuan, down 9.7%, while the overseas market for formulations grew by 30.1% [2]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 827 million yuan, 946 million yuan, and 1.096 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.96, 1.10, and 1.27 yuan [3][4]. - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 20, 17, and 15 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][4].