铜市：关税风波后的格局演变 (1)特朗普关税政策的影响 7 月 30 日，特朗普政府宣布对美国进口的半制成铜产品及铜密集型衍生产品征收 50% 关税，该政策源 于 232 条款调查，8 月 1 日起生效。不过，精炼铜和铜精矿被排除在关税之外，且不会面临对等关税。 这一豁免意义重大，因为美国 50% 的国内精炼铜需求依赖进口，而半制成品(盘条、管材、板材等)的净 进口仅占需求的 7%。 高盛指出，此前曾提示 "矿产外交" 相关交易可能给 COMEX - LME 价差套利带来下行风险，并关闭了 做多 COMEX - LME 的交易建议。尽管对铜关税提议近乎完全撤销感到意外，但这表明特朗普政府仍 关注铜的供应安全。美国接下来可能会把重点放在与海外达成矿产协议上，并逐步引入关税。 (2)铜价走势与价差变化 智通财经APP获悉，近期，铜市波动引发市场广泛关注，美国银行(美银)和高盛两大机构纷纷发布报 告，对铜价走势、关税影响及相关企业动态进行了深入分析。同时，美银还针对紫金矿业(H/A)给出了 最新研究观点。 关税宣布后，COMEX 铜合约价格下跌 20% 至约 4.46 美元 / 磅(9830 美元 / 吨)，COM ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a view that a 25% copper import tariff is the most likely outcome of the S232 investigation, with a market-implied probability of 47% by the end of 2025, presenting a compelling opportunity for the 'Copper Tariff Trade' of long Dec-25 COMEX-LME copper arbitrage [4][6][7]. Core Insights - The Dec-25 COMEX-LME US-UK copper spread decreased from $1,708/t to $1,113/t between April 22 and May 20, indicating a reduced market-implied probability of a 25% US copper import tariff [4][6]. - The decline in the spread is attributed to the US making concessions on previously announced tariffs, which increases the perceived risk of concessions on potential copper tariffs [7][8]. - Rising US inventories have not materially impacted the COMEX-LME spread, as the decline is primarily due to greater uncertainty regarding future tariffs [11]. Summary by Sections Copper Tariff Investigation - There have been no official announcements from the Trump Administration regarding the copper S232 investigation since late February, leading to a lower probability of a US copper import tariff [7]. - If the US decides against imposing a copper import tariff, it is expected that the COMEX price would drop below the LME price due to high US inventories [8]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that US copper scrap exports have decreased year-to-date but have not ceased, and a blanket export ban is not anticipated [13][16]. - The UK securing concessions on steel and aluminum S232 tariffs is seen as a potential indicator that all tariffs, including copper, may be subject to negotiation [12]. Inventory and Pricing - The report highlights that the current high level of US copper inventories, the highest since 2012, is influencing market dynamics, particularly in relation to the COMEX-LME spread [8][11]. - The report emphasizes that tighter LME and wider COMEX timespreads account for the changes in the COMEX-LME spread, indicating that external factors are more impactful than US inventory levels [11].